劳动力与资本的抬价之战(下)

The second group consists of most other rich countries outside America. There, neither labour nor capital seems able to triumph. After correcting for pandemic-related distortions Japan’s pay growth appears to be slowing to below 1% a year, suggest data from Goldman Sachs, a bank.

第二类包括除美国之外的大多数富裕国家。在这些国家，劳动力和资本谁也赢不了谁。高盛银行(Goldman Sachs)的数据显示，修正了与疫情相关的失真后，日本的薪酬增长似乎正在放缓至每年1%以下。

Pay settlements in Italy and Spain are treading water, while wage growth in Australia, France and Germany remains well below where it was before the pandemic. Workers in these places are not really joining in with the inflationary party.

意大利和西班牙的薪资水平停滞不前，而澳大利亚、法国和德国的薪资增长仍远低于疫情前的水平。这些地方的工人并没有真正加入通胀的阵营。

But businesses are not soaring either. In Europe pre-tax profit margins, as measured in the national accounts, have risen in recent months but remain below where they were just before the pandemic.

但企业利润也没有大幅增长。在欧洲，按国民经济核算计算的税前利润空间近几个月有所上升，但仍低于疫情爆发前的水平。

In Japan the “recurring” profits before tax of large and medium-sized companies recently returned to pre-pandemic levels. The profits of smaller companies remain well below, however.

在日本，大中型企业的“经常性”税前利润最近恢复到了疫情前的水平。然而，小型企业的利润仍远低于疫情前。

In the third group sits America. Here wage growth is rapid, at about 5% a year. But as shown in their most recent financial results, big listed American companies are doing a better job of protecting margins than analysts had expected.

第三类是美国。美国的工资增长很快，大约是每年5%的增速。但其最近的财务业绩表明，美国大型上市公司对利率的保护超过了分析师们的预期。

A series of unusually large stimulus payments may mean that households are able to absorb the higher prices that companies impose.

一系列异乎寻常的巨额刺激支出可能意味着百姓能够承受企业强加的更高价格。

In early February Amazon said it would increase the price of its Prime membership package by 17% in its home market—even as it chose not to announce price rises in other parts of the world.

2月初，亚马逊宣布将美国市场上的Prime会员套餐的价格提高17%，不过在世界其他地区，它没有宣布涨价信息。

Some firms are increasing their margins despite soaring costs.

尽管成本飙升，一些公司的利润仍在增加。

Tyson, an American meat producer, reported an 18% jump in the costs of its inputs in the most recent quarter compared with a year earlier, a 19.6% increase in its average selling prices, and a 40% rise in its adjusted operating profits. It says that rising meat prices have not slowed demand.

美国肉类生产商泰森(Tyson)报告称，与去年同期相比，其最近一个季度的投入成本上涨了18%，平均销售价格上涨了19.6%，调整后的营业利润增长了40%。该公司表示，不断上涨的肉价并没有减缓需求。

An economy-wide measure of corporate margins is rising fast. Dario Perkins of ts Lombard, a financial-services firm, breaks down America’s rise in unit prices since the start of the pandemic into companies’ labour costs, non-labour costs and profits.

衡量企业利率的经济指标正在迅速上升。金融服务公司ts Lombard的达里奥·帕金斯(Dario Perkins)分析了自疫情爆发以来美国单位价格的上涨，并将其拆分为企业的劳动力成本、非劳动力成本和利润。

Wages are rising, but nonetheless markups are responsible for more than 70% of inflation since late 2019, he finds. In a recent report, analysts at Bank of America argue that greater pricing power helps explain why American equities have a higher price-earnings ratio than European ones.

他发现，工资正在上涨，但尽管如此，自2019年末以来，超过70%的通胀都是由抬价造成的。在最近的一份报告中，美国银行的分析师认为，更大的定价权解释了为什么美国股票的市盈率比欧洲股票的高。

The story is not over yet. Some economists wonder if workers will before long demand even higher wages to compensate for higher prices in the shops. There is some evidence of this in America and Britain, where wage growth seems to be accelerating.

故事还未结束。一些经济学家想知道，工人们是否会在不久之后要求更高的工资，以对冲更高的物价。美国和英国出现了相关迹象，那里的薪资增长正在加速。

Businesses’ expectations for future wage settlements remain fairly conservative, though that could soon change. If wages do start to grow more quickly, the cycle of price rises and compensating wage demands might start up all over again. Before long the post-lockdown economy could look like the ultimate compromise—where nobody is satisfied.

企业对未来的薪资预期仍然相当保守，不过这可能很快就会改变。如果薪资真的开始快速增长，可能会再次启动抬价与涨薪之间的循环。用不了多久，疫情封锁后的经济可能会像是终极妥协——没有一个人满意。