一场太过冒险的赌博（上）

Business

商业

Schumpeter -- A gamble too far

熊彼特——一场太过冒险的赌博

Europe's commodities traders have made a mistake by dealing with Vladimir Putin's regime

欧洲大宗商品交易商犯了一个错误：与弗拉基米尔·普京的政权打交道

In Russia's frozen north is a megaproject that has long been seen as an answer to President Vladimir Putin's prayers.

在俄罗斯寒冷的北方，有一个大型项目长期以来一直被视为对总统弗拉基米尔·普京的拥簇者的回应。

By the mid-2020s the Vostok oilfield is expected to supply about 15% of Russia's crude exports.

到2020年代中期，Vostok油田预计将供应俄罗斯约15%的原油出口。

By that time Rosneft, the Russian oil giant leading the effort, plans to ship Vostok oil via the Northern Sea Route, a shortcut through the Arctic to Asia.

到那时，领导这项工程的俄罗斯石油巨头Rosneft计划通过北海航线运送Vostok的石油，北海航线是一条穿过北极通往亚洲的捷径。

The route will enable Russia to bypass the West geopolitically as well as geographically, allowing oil to travel along waters beyond the control of the American navy and out of reach of Western sanctions.

这条路线能够使俄罗斯在地缘政治方面和地理上绕过西方，使石油可以沿着美国海军控制范围之外的水域运输，也不受西方制裁的影响。

Besides Rosneft, its backers include two mostly European oil and gas traders, Trafigura and Vitol.

除了Rosneft，其支持者主要还包括两家来自欧洲的石油和天然气交易商Trafigura和Vitol。

For years they have competed fiercely to be among the biggest buyers of Russian crude.

多年来，它们一直竞争激烈，以求成为俄罗斯原油的最大买家之一。

These firms are part of a group of commodities traders, including Glencore and Gunvor, that often thrive amid geopolitical turmoil.

这些公司隶属于一些大宗商品交易商，其中包括Glencore和Gunvor，这些交易商经常在地缘政治动荡中蓬勃发展。

They are clear-eyed realists who in the past have struck deals with autocrats to gain access to cheap raw materials.

他们是目光敏锐的现实主义者，过去曾与独裁者达成协议以获得廉价的原材料。

In recent years some have doubled down on Russia, doing business with the figures who surround Mr Putin, such as Rosneft's boss, Igor Sechin, and winning big oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) contracts (piped gas is the domain of Gazprom, a state monopoly).

近年来，一些交易商对俄罗斯加倍下注，与普京身边的人物做生意，比如Rosneft的老板伊戈尔·谢钦，并赢得了石油和液化天然气的大合同(管道天然气是国营垄断企业Gazprom的地盘)。

The arrangement served both sides well.

这种安排对双方都有好处。

The traders invested in Russia and secured more supply from the world's third-biggest oil-producing country and biggest natural-gas exporter.

这些交易商在俄罗斯投资，并从这个世界第三大产油国和最大的天然气出口国那里获得更多供应。

Higher energy prices bolstered Russia's hard-currency reserves.

能源价格上涨增强了俄罗斯的硬通货储备。

But if they believed Mr Putin's goal was a modern economy that he would not jeopardise by invading Ukraine, they were wrong.

但是，如果他们相信普京的目标是建立一个不受入侵乌克兰危及的现代化经济，那他们就错了。

In fact, oil revenues have financed an ever more autocratic and belligerent regime.

事实上，石油收益资助了一个越来越专制和好战的政权。

After the West moved to strengthen penalties on Russia's financial system on February 26th, they faced the consequences of their bet.

在2月26日西方采取行动加强对俄罗斯金融体系的制裁后，他们面临着他们所下赌注的后果。

As one executive put it two days later, everything in the Russian oil business was "frozen": banks, ports, ships and suppliers.

正如两天后一位高管所说，俄罗斯石油行业的一切都被“冻结”了：银行、港口、船舶和供应商。

Auctions of Russian crude found no buyers.

俄罗斯原油拍卖遇冷。

Prices of oil soared on global markets but so did the discounts on Russian Urals crude relative to international benchmarks.

全球市场上的油价飙升，不过俄罗斯Urals原油相对于国际基准价格的折扣也大幅上升。

Amid fear of sanctions, Russian cargoes became kryptonite.

由于担心受到制裁，俄罗斯的货物成了克星。

Some traders initially said the paralysis would be short-lived.

一些交易商最初表示，这种瘫痪是暂时的。

After all, oil and gas producers were spared sanctions in order to keep Russian energy flowing to the West.

毕竟，为了让俄罗斯的能源继续流向西方，石油和天然气生产商得以免于制裁。

One executive described the biggest risk as "overzealous bank compliance officers" causing more damage to Russia's oil market than the architects of sanctions intended.

一位高管称，最大的风险是“过分尽职的银行合规官员”对俄罗斯石油市场造成的损害比制裁措施的制定者想要造成的损害更大。

Yet the traders may have been in denial.

交易商们可能仍拒绝接受这一现实。

The speed with which two European supermajors, BP and Shell, pledged to dump their Russian assets suggested that political and social pressure to withdraw from Russia was mounting in the wake of the invasion.

英国石油和壳牌这两家欧洲石油巨头承诺出售其俄罗斯资产的速度之快表明，随着入侵开始，要求交易商们撤出俄罗斯的政治和社会压力正在增加。

On March 1st Glencore said it was reassessing its equity stakes in EN+, an Anglo-Russian aluminium producer, and Rosneft.

3月1日，Glencore表示，它正在重新评估其在EN+（一家英俄合营的铝生产商）和Rosneft的股权。

A day later Trafigura said it was reviewing its investment in Vostok Oil as it unconditionally condemned the war.

一天后，Trafigura表示，由于其无条件地谴责这场战争，它正在评估其对Vostok石油的投资。

Usually the trading houses thrive in times of conflict by keeping their heads down and capitalising on volatility.

通常情况下，在冲突时期，贸易公司会保持低调，并利用市场波动获利。

Not this time.

这一次不行了。

Russia's war on Ukraine suggests their gamble on Mr Putin may have been a throw of the dice too far.

俄罗斯对乌克兰的战争表明，他们押在普京身上的赌注可能是孤注一掷。