科学美国人60秒:Voters Are Seldom Swayed by Local Campaign Stops

Donald Trump hasn't been running the most traditional campaign. And it's not just the unfiltered tweets. "He's neglecting campaigning full stop." Thomas Wood, an assistant professor of political science at Ohio State. "He's had about half as many public events as his opponent."
唐纳德·特朗普并未按照总统选举传统套路出牌。这并不是仅指的他随心所欲的推文。“他完全忽视了这是总统的竞选演讲。”托马斯·伍德是俄亥俄州立大学政治学的助理教授。特朗普的公共事件仅是其对手的一半

Wood's own campaign experience was with the Romney/Ryan ticket back in 2012. Every night, the campaign surveyed thousands of voters… 64,000 over all… asking them how they felt about the politicians, after a local visit. That is, if the voters actually knew about the visit.
伍德自己的竞选经验要追溯到2012年，跟随竞选者瑞安。每天晚上，竞选团队会调查上万位选民……总共64000多。通过本地访问，了解他们对政治任务的感受。前提是，这些选民已经知道有本地访问。

"Instead of seeing candidate X visiting somewhere in Pensacola they're now seeing candidate X visit somewhere in their local market. And it's not really filtering through to that many folks that the visit was there—you know one event sort of looks like the other. They all sort of blend into each other. It's hard to make it clear to the person who's just watching the evening news that this was a visit in your local marketplace."
你不会看到候选人X在访问彭萨科拉，而是会看到候选人X访问在当地市场。对于许多人来说，去哪访问都一样——因为事件看起来差不多。这些事件互相融合。很难弄清楚，晚间新闻你看到的人，实际上是在对当地进行访问。

In other words, visits didn't even register for most locals or those in adjacent markets. And the voters' opinions of the candidates went up just a measly couple percent after local visits—before fading back to baseline a few days later. So despite the huge investment of time and money, the local campaign stops were pretty worthless—at least from a numbers standpoint. The findings are in the Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science.
换而言之，对于当地抑或是临近市场的大多数居民，这些访问，并没有记录。通过对极少数人的访问，选民对候选者的支持率上升——而这仅是与前几天的基数相比较。所以，尽管投入了大量的资金和时间，至少从数量角度看，当地的竞选演讲回报有限。该研究结果发表在《美国政治和社会科学学院年报》。

As for this election season—any advice for the noncampaigning candidate? "I would provide advice that has nothing to do with his frequency of visits. I'd be providing advice as to how one comports oneself with the national press, try to earn some goodwill. I guess just being polite. I would say that Trump's sort of lethargic process of campaigning is probably the least of his worries." Better, he says, to just spend more time fundraising. To throw more cash at things that really work: like get-out-the-vote campaigns, and ads. Then again…Twitter's free.
在竞选期间，对于未能参加竞选的候选人，有什么建议吗?我认为最后的结果与他的出访次数无关。我的建议是：一个人的举止若想与国家新闻相一致，那就去做一些善事。我觉得，就是礼貌。我想说，特朗普的迷糊的竞选过程，可能他根本就不担心这些。不要将更多的时间花费到筹集资金上，将钱用到真正有用的地方：如参加投票，做做广告….推特可是免费的哦~