美国选举如何影响能源发展

This is Scientific American's 60-second Science, I'm Steve Mirsky.

这里是科学美国人——60秒科学系列，我是史蒂夫·米尔斯基。

Steve Mirsky: For this energy installment of our pre-election podcast series I spoke once again to Scientific American editors Mark Fischetti and Andrea Thompson.

史蒂夫·米尔斯基:在预选播客系列能源节目中，我再次采访了《科学美国人》的编辑马克·菲舍蒂和安德里亚·汤普森。

SM: What's at stake in this election in terms of energy in this country?

史蒂夫·米尔斯基:就这个国家的能源而言，这次选举有什么利害关系?

Mark Fischetti: So I think there's two things, Steve.

马克·菲谢蒂:史蒂夫，我认为有两件事。

One is oil. On October 27, the U.S. Department of Interior approved a huge oil development project in western Alaska by ConocoPhillips.

一个是石油。10月27日，美国内政部批准了康菲石油公司在阿拉斯加西部的大型石油开发项目。

So that's clearly where the current administration is happy to go.

因此，显然，这是现任政府乐意去做的事情。

The other issue is electricity. Will it continue to be built on fossil fuels or more so on renewable energy?

另一个问题是电力。它会继续依赖化石燃料，还是更多地依赖可再生能源?

And I think there's a lot of interesting state races that have some bearing in that too.

我认为这其中也有很多与之有关系的有趣的州际比赛。

SM: That's a good point, because we're not just talking about the presidential election.

史蒂夫·米尔斯基:说得好，因为我们谈论的不仅仅是总统选举。

We're talking about the election in general.

我们谈论的是总体上的选举。

Andrea Thompson: It's an interesting area, because the President and Congress can shape things to a large degree.

安德里亚·汤普森:这是一个有趣的领域，因为总统和国会可以在很大程度上塑造事物。

But then there are also market forces that come into play that can counteract things he's trying to do.

但也有市场力量的作用，可以抵消他试图做的事情。

So despite during the first four years of the Trump administration, this push towards fossil fuels and to boost them, we still see renewables really surge in their use, and they’ve become comparatively cheaper, especially compared to coal.

所以，尽管在特朗普执政的头四年里，推动了且促进了化石燃料的发展，我们仍然看到可再生能源的使用量大幅增加，尤其是与煤炭相比，它们变得相对便宜。

And that's really happened in spite of any efforts the Trump administration has made, because of technological developments, because companies are moving in that direction regardless of what the administration wants to do.

尽管特朗普政府做出了努力，但由于技术的发展，这确实发生了，因为不管政府想做什么，公司都在朝着这个方向发展。

So that will kind of complicate or mitigate what could happen in the next four years.

因此，这将使未来四年可能发生的事情变得复杂或使事情有所缓和。

SM: What can the government do to nudge that market selection pressure one way or the other.

史蒂夫·米尔斯基:政府能做些什么以一种或另一种方式来推动市场选择压力呢?

AT: So besides allowing for fossil fuel development on public lands, which the federal government controls, and there's hundreds of millions of acres of public lands in the U.S, they also can affect it through things like tariffs and subsidies.

安德里亚·汤普森: 因此，除了允许在联邦政府控制的公共土地上开发化石燃料之外，美国有数亿英亩的公共土地，他们还可以通过关税和补贴等方式影响它。

So one thing President Trump has indicated he wants to do is to increase tariffs on solar panels. And so that could actually impact the solar power market.

所以特朗普总统表示，他想要做的一件事是提高太阳能电池板的关税。因此，这实际上会影响太阳能市场。

And that's partly been for trade reasons, not necessarily energy-specific reasons, that he's done that. But that, you know, that adds to the cost and makes it a little bit harder for them to compete.

部分原因是贸易原因，而不一定是特定能源方面的原因，他这样做了。但是，你知道，这增加了成本，让他们更难竞争。

MF: By the way, I would add that, you know, there are still subsidies to this day for oil and natural gas.

马克·菲舍蒂: 顺便说一下，我想补充一点，你知道，石油和天然气至今仍有补贴。

They're hardly new technologies.

它们几乎不是新技术。

It really does change the equation because there are plenty of studies that show purely on cost and energy delivery that renewables—wind and solar—are actually cheaper than many fossil fuels, but they don't stay cheaper if fossil fuels have subsidies.

它确实改变了这个等式，因为有很多研究仅仅从成本和能源输送方面表明，可再生能源——风能和太阳能——实际上比许多化石燃料更便宜，但如果化石燃料有补贴，它们就不会保持便宜价格。

SM: So what's the story on fracking right now?

史蒂夫·米尔斯基:现在关于水力压裂有什么报道?

AT: Generally, following the Trump administration general pro-fossil-fuel stance they are for allowing fracking on on federal lands and new leases Whereas the Biden position has been that they would discontinue new leases, although leases that are already established would be allowed.

安德里亚·汤普森: 总的来说，按照特朗普政府往常支持化石燃料的立场，他们支持在联邦土地和新租约地上进行水力压裂。而拜登的立场是他们将终止新租约进行压裂，尽管允许在已经建立的租约上进行压裂。

And then those don't impact any fracking on private land. So it’s a little bit of a mixed bag.

这些不会影响到私有土地上的水力压裂。 所以这有点复杂。

For Scientific American's 60-second Science. I'm Steve Mirsky.

谢谢大家收听科学美国人——60秒科学。我是史蒂夫·米尔斯基。