加那利群岛火山爆发重置火山预测

This is Scientific American's 60-second Science, I'm Christopher Intagliata.

这里是科学美国人——60秒科学系列，我是克里斯托弗·因塔利亚塔。

For three months now, the Cumbre Vieja volcano has unleashed fury upon the island of La Palma, in the Spanish Canary Islands.

三个月来，坎布雷·维贾(Cumbre Vieja)火山一直在西班牙加那利群岛的拉帕尔马岛上肆虐。

Ash has rained from the sky. Rivers of lava have consumed at least 2600 buildings, and razed plantations of bananas and avocados.

火山灰从天而降。 熔岩河吞噬了至少2600座建筑，将香蕉和鳄梨种植园夷为平地。

The magma's movement underground has triggered clusters of earthquakes too—more than a dozen hit La Palma on a recent day.

岩浆在地下的运动也引发了一连串的地震-最近一天，拉帕尔马就发生了十几次地震。

Despite that devastation, only one death has been attributed to the eruption.

尽管造成了如此大的破坏，但只有一人死于火山喷发。

And volcanologists say the recent activity has them rethinking their predictions of the volcano's next move.

火山学家说，最近的火山喷发让他们重新考虑对火山下一步活动的预测。

"It's always useful to see a new volcano personality."

“观察一个新的火山性格总是很有用的。”

Marc-Antoine Longpré is a volcanologist at the City University of New York.

马克·安托万·朗普雷是纽约城市大学的火山学家。

He says every eruption helps scientists better understand volcanoes, and improve their forecasts.

他说，每次喷发都有助于科学家更好地了解火山，并改善他们的预测。

One lesson is that volcanoes in the Canary Islands behave a little bit differently from other basaltic volcanoes we commonly see in the media for example, like Hawaiian volcanoes and Etna in Italy.

其中一个经验是，加那利群岛的火山活动与我们在媒体上经常看到的其他玄武岩火山有点不同，例如，夏威夷火山和意大利的埃特纳火山。

He explains that those volcanoes tend to have a shorter run-up to their eruptions.

他解释说，这些火山在喷发前往往有一个较短的助燃阶段。

Whereas Cumbre Vieja began to reawaken years ago, in October 2017, with a cluster of tiny earthquakes.

而坎布雷·维贾(Cumbre Vieja)火山在几年前，也就是2017年10月，伴随着一系列的小地震开始重新苏醒。

In the years since, the volcano has triggered sporadic swarms of tiny quakes.

在那之后的几年里，这个火山引发了零星的小地震。

But on September 11th, 2021 -- eight days before the eruption -- things picked up.

但在2021年9月11日，也就是火山喷发前8天，火山活动加速了。

Several hundred quakes hit every day.

每天都有几百次地震。

And the ground began to deform, likely due to flows of magma.

地面开始变形，可能是因为岩浆流动。

In hindsight it took a long time for the volcano to reactivate but in the end there was a week of late stage warning that an eruption was going to come.

事后看来，这座火山花了很长时间才重新活跃起来，但在最后，火山爆发的末期有一个星期的预警。

So that's something that will be useful in the future for sure.

这在将来肯定是有用的。

Longpré's analysis appears in the journal Science.

朗普雷的分析发表在《科学》杂志上。

Cumbre Vieja last erupted 50 years ago, in 1971.

坎布雷·维贾(Cumbre Vieja)火山上一次喷发是在50年前的1971年。

Next time, Longpré says, forecasters will be better prepared.

朗普雷说，下一次，预报员将会准备得更好。

In 50 years or maybe longer, when the volcano reactivates again, we will know from this current experience that it may take several years before the eruption actually shows up.

在50年或更久的时间里，当火山再次活跃时，我们将从目前的经验中得知，喷发可能需要几年时间才会真正出现。

And we also see that it can accelerate very rapidly and in the end give a short warning for an imminent eruption.

我们也看到火山活动可以非常迅速地加速，最后给出一个即将喷发的短暂预警。

But, as he writes in his paper -- predicting eruptions is one thing.

但是，正如他在论文中所写的那样，预测火山喷发是一回事。

Smart urban planning, to avoid the long-term risks of living on the flanks of a volcano, is entirely another.

明智的城市规划，以避免长期生活在火山两侧的风险，则完全是另一回事。

Thanks for listening for Scientific American's 60-second Science. I'm Christopher Intagliata.

谢谢大家收听科学美国人——60秒科学。我是克里斯托弗·因塔利亚塔。