What Happens When a Dictator Dies?(翻译)

A new study finds that the natural death of a dictator does not usually lead to a change in a county’s governmental system. In other words, remaining leaders are unlikely to put a democratic system into place.
一项最新研究显示，独裁者的自然死亡不会给一个国家的政府系统带来太多改变。换句话说，继任的领导人不太可能建立民主制度。

Researchers at Michigan State University and the National Intelligence Council carried out the study, titled “When Dictators Die.” The magazine Journal of Democracy published it.
密歇根州立大学和美国国家情报委员会的研究人员共同进行了这项题为“独裁者死后怎样”的研究。研究结果发表在《民主杂志》上。

The study found that in most cases, system changes are more probable if a dictator is ousted.
这项研究发现，在大多数情况下，如果独裁者被赶下台，制度可能会更容易改变。

The researchers examined almost 80 cases of dictators who died in office between 1946 and 2012. They note that 11 of the 55 dictators now in office are at least 70 years old. Some are not in good health.
研究人员检视了1946-2012年期间在任上去世的大约80位独裁者的例子。他们指出，现在在任的55位独裁者中，有11位已经至少70岁了。一些人的健康状况不是很好。

Erica Frantz is an associate professor at Michigan State. She was one of the researchers.
艾丽卡·弗朗茨是密歇根州立大学的副教授。她是其中一位研究人员。

“It started about the time of Kim Jong-il’s death in North Korea a few years ago. And there was a lot of buzz in the moments afterwards that we might see big change in North Korea. So we decided to dig around and look at the data and see what the empirical record showed because that’s not an atypical situation. The same type of thing happened also after Hugo Chávez’s death in Venezuela.”
“这是从几年前朝鲜领导人金正日去世的时候开始的。那之后流言四起，说是朝鲜将会有巨大的变动。所以我们决定四处挖掘数据，看看经验主义的记录会告诉我们什么，因为这毕竟不是非典型的情况。委内瑞拉的雨果·查韦斯死后，也发生了同样的事情。”

Frantz says researchers wanted to know how and when media reports of possible governmental change came true.
弗朗茨说，研究人员想知道媒体对可能的政府变化实现这件事，是何时报道、以何种方式报道的。

She said they found that natural death in office was usually, in her words, “a non-event.” She said leadership changes in dictatorial systems usually come during “momentous” happenings, such as overthrows, elections or rebellions.
她说，他们发现，在任上的自然死亡往往是“令人扫兴的事”（用她的话说）。她说，独裁制度往往在“大事”发生之后才会改变，比如推翻、选举和反叛。

She says an examination of the leadership deaths between 1946 and 2012 shows there are several conditions that might make change more likely.
她说，研究1946-2012年期间的领导人死亡之后发现，有几种情况可能会使得改变更容易发生。

The more centralized the power, she says, the more likely change will happen. In other words, if there are few or no governmental structures to manage the continuation of the system, change is more probable.
她说，权力越集中，越容易发生改变。换句话说，如果很少或者没有政府结构来维持现有制度的话，改变就很容易发生。

Frantz says pressure, such as protests, on the ruling power in the months before a dictator’s death can also increase the likelihood.
弗朗茨说，在独裁者去世之前一个月里，像抗议这样对执政当局的压力也会增加改变的可能性。

The study also examined whether overthrows are more likely to take place when a ruler is old. Frantz says researchers did not find that to be the case.
研究也调查了当领导人年老的时候，推翻行动会不会更有可能发生。弗朗茨说，研究人员没有找到这样的例子。

She says there are lessons to be learned from the study. She says an old dictatorial leader is a sign of a skilled politician, who is able to stay in power for a long time.
她说，在研究中也能学到一些教训。她说，一个年老的独裁领导人就是经验丰富的政治家的象征，这种人能够掌权很长的时间。

“The other takeaway point, I think is that leadership transitions more generally are moments that increase a country’s baseline risk of regime collapse. But death in office is really not the major moment that we can leverage those types of occurrences.”
“我认为，另一个启发点是，政权更替的时候基本也是增加一个国家政体崩溃风险的时候。但是（领导人）死在任上并不一定是我们能够利用这些事情的重大时刻。”

Researchers say another reason there is little change after a dictatorial ruler dies in office is that top officials see no reason to change policies. Some countries have changed the constitution to permit them to extend their terms, sometimes by many years. Frantz says they use that method to give the appearance of democracy rather than using force to remain in power.
研究人员说，在独裁者在任上死后变化很少的另一个原因是，高级官员看不到改变政策的必要。一些国家已经修改了宪法以延长官员的任期，有时候一延就是很多年。弗朗茨说，他们用这种方法披上民主的外衣，而不是强行继续掌权。

I’m Kelly Jean Kelly.
凯利·简·凯利为您报道。