VOA慢速英语:American Intelligence Report Predicts China will be World’s Leading Economic Power by 2030

A new American intelligence report this week predicted Asia’s economic power rising in the coming years. The report says that by the year 2030, the United States will no longer be the superpower it is today. It says that no nation will have that kind of influence, with power instead redirected to coalitions between countries. 
美国一份最新情报报告预计未来几年内亚洲经济强国将崛起。报告称到2030年，美国将不再拥有如今日这般超级大国的地位，报告称随着实力定向转为国家联盟，没有国家将有美国现在这样的影响力。

The report comes from the National Intelligence Council of the Office of the Director of National Intelligence. The document was researched and written by experts from outside the government. They say the findings are meant to help policymakers in their long-term planning on major issues.
这份报告来自美国国家情报总监办公室下属的国家情报委员会，由非政府专家研究并撰写，他们称发现将有助于政府在重大问题上制定长期计划。

The report says the world will look different by 2030. The economy in Asia will be larger than that of North America and Europe combined. China will have the largest economy in the world. And the Chinese economy will be 140 percent greater than Japan’s economy.
报告称2030年世界面貌将大不同，亚洲经济将强于北美和欧洲的总和。中国将成为世界最大经济体，中国经济总量将比日本经济高出140%。

Some observers say China needs to take steps before it can become the world’s biggest economy. Patrick Chovanec is with Tsinghua University’s School of Economics and Management in Beijing. He believes that several things could affect the country’s economic growth.
一些观察家称中国要成为世界最大经济体需要采取一些措施，帕特里克•霍瓦内茨就职于清华大学经济与管理学院，他说影响中国经济增长的因素有几个：

“China’s growth is extremely resource dependent and those resources are becoming scarcer and scarcer. In particular, water, in northern China, there is a growing scarcity of water, and that along with other resource constraints might limit China’s prospects of going forward.” 
“中国的发展是极端的资源依赖型，而资源正日益变得短缺。尤其是中国北方，水资源日益匮乏，其他资源的限制也将影响中国的发展前景。”

Patrick Chovanec says the average age in China is rising because of the country’s one-child policy. He says there are concerns China will grow old before it is wealthy enough to support its growing population.
帕特里克•霍瓦内茨说，由于中国的独生子女政策，中国人的平均年龄正在上升。他说中国的财富难以增长到支撑人口老龄化。

The new report also says the world economy will be more dependent on the health of developing countries, instead of the West. It says there will be a higher demand on resources as the world’s population expands from seven-point-one billion today to eight billion people.
这份最新报告还说，世界经济将更多地依靠发展中国家经济的健康发展，而非依靠西方国家。报告称世界人口将从如今的71亿增加到80亿，因此对资源的依赖度更高。

The report says nearly half of the population will live in areas with severe water issues. It says limited water resources and farmland could increase the risk of conflict in parts of Africa, the Middle East and South Asia.
报告称近一半人口将居住在水资源紧张的地区，而水资源和农田匮乏将使非洲、中东和南亚地区有冲突多发的危险。

Experts are predicting that the United States could become more active in settling disputes in the future. As a mediator, America could work to prevent what the report calls violence created from insecurity in Southeast Asia and the Middle East. Robert Kagan is with the Brookings Institution in Washington.
专家预计美国将在处理争端问题上更加活跃，作为斡旋者，美国将努力阻止东南亚和中东地区所谓由不安定带来的暴力问题。罗伯特•卡根就职于华盛顿布鲁金斯学会。

"What the world is looking for from the United States - and it’s not the world - individual states look for protection, they look - in some cases - for the ability to organize.  I mean if you take the Syria issue which is before us right now, what people are waiting for is for the United States to step up and start pulling everyone together. And what's been missing has been the United States playing that role."    
“世界向美国寻求什么，少数国家寻求保护，在一些情况下寻求组织能力。考虑下当前的叙利亚问题，人们希望美国做的就是将各方组织起来，现在美国缺失的就是这一角色。”

The writers of the report say their findings are not meant to predict the future, but instead provide a framework for thinking about possible futures. The report adds that the best world possible would exist if the United States and China work together and lead international cooperation.
报告的作者称这些发现并未能预测未来，而是为思考可能的未来提供了框架。报告还说，只要美国和中国协同一致领导国家合作，才会实现世界最好的未来。