VOA慢速英语:Political Worries Can Affect Economic Decisions(翻译)

Researchers say concern about the elections in the United States is increasingly affecting the American economy.
研究人员称，对美国大选的担忧正越来越多地影响美国经济。

Election campaigns can often affect financial markets.Studies show stock prices are more likely to jump or drop sharply during a campaign than at other times.
选举活动会影响金融市场。研究显示，选战期间比其他任何时候都容易引起股价跳水或者暴跌。

Also, research shows that both business leaders and the general public delay decisions to buy or invest when the future is unclear.
还有研究显示，不管是商界领袖还是普罗大众都会在未来尚不明朗的时候推迟买进或者投资的决定。

A research group called Macroeconomic Advisers says campaign promises about trade, taxes and other issues have a real effect on financial markets.The company is based in St. Louis, Missouri.
一个叫作“宏观经济咨询公司”的研究小组表示，有关贸易、税收和其他问题的竞选承诺对金融市场有实在的影响。该公司位于密苏里州圣路易斯。

Joel Prakken works for Macroeconomic Advisers.Speaking to VOA on Skype, he said investors seem to like Hillary Clinton, the presidential candidate for the Democratic Party.
乔尔·普拉肯在宏观经济咨询公司工作。在网络视频采访中，他告诉“美国之声”，投资人们更偏爱民主党总统侯选人希拉里·克林顿。

He said stock prices were often higher on days when public opinion studies showed her defeating the Republican candidate, Donald Trump.
他说，每次当民意调查显示希拉里胜过共和党候选人唐纳德·特朗普的时候，股价都会上升。

Art Durnev teaches finance at the University of Iowa.He told VOA on Skype that the influence of politics on major parts of the U.S. economy has increased.
阿特·杜尔涅夫在爱荷华大学教授金融学。他在网络视频采访中告诉“美国之声”，政治对美国经济几大方面的影响加深了。

“Politics affects financial markets much, much more now than, let’s say 10, 20, or 30 years ago.”
“我们说，政治对金融市场的影响，比30年、20年甚至10年前都大。”

If this is true, some of the reasons could be tied to questions about taxes and rules affecting industry and employment.Research shows that companies often delay important business decisions when they do not see a clear path forward.For example, a company may be unwilling to sell stock to the public if its leaders are concerned about economic conditions.
如果这是真的，一些税收和法规上的问题确实就会影响到工业和就业了。研究显示，在前路未明的时候，企业总是推迟重大的商业决定。比如，如果企业领导担忧经济环境，这个企业就不愿意向公众发售股票。

Durnev says companies can avoid spending money in other ways.
杜尔涅夫说，企业能够通过其他方法来避免支出。

“They start hoarding cash, they don’t want to spend.Major corporations delay their hiring, their firing decisions.Everything is on hold for them.”
“他们开始持有现金，而不想要花钱。大公司会暂缓招聘和裁员。他们会搁置一切事情。”

Political uncertainty also affects consumer buying, experts say.Economists note consumer spending is responsible for more than two thirds of economic activity nationwide.
专家表示，政治上的不确定也会影响消费者的购买力。经济学家指出，消费者花钱的行为拉动了全国超过三分之二的经济活动。

Joel Prakken said not being sure of the future slows down decision-making.
乔尔·普拉肯说，对未来的不确定拖慢了做决定。

“Buying a car, buying a house, starting a business,managing a business, making investment decisions,when they are uncertain about the environment in which they will be making those decisions, there is a natural tendency to just pause,take a breath, sit on your hands, and wait until the uncertainty clears.”
“买车，买房，开公司，管理公司，做投资决定……在对环境不确定的时候做决定，很多人自然就会暂停一下，歇口气，什么也不做，一直等到形势明朗。”

However, experts disagree on whether uncertainty plays a larger or smaller role in an individual’s economic decisions.Other issues, such as actual energy costs and interest rates, can also have a strong effect.
但是，专家们对“不确定性”在个人经济决定上所起的作用大小莫衷一是。像实际能源成本和利率这样的问题也会有很大的影响。

Bill Galston is with the Brookings Institution in Washington, D.C.
比尔·高尔斯顿在华盛顿特区布鲁金斯研究所工作。

“There is a lot of professional disagreement among economists as to how weighty uncertainty is in relationship to more fundamental market evaluations.”
“在经济学家之间，在不确定性与基本市场评价之间关系大小这个问题上，有很多的专业争论。”

Political uncertainty, however, rarely ends with an election.
但是，政治上的不确定性很少在大选之后就会结束。

The winner of the presidential election will have to work with a U.S. Congress that has shown little support for the proposals of either Clinton or Trump.
赢得大选的人还要做国会的工作，因为国会对希拉里和特朗普的提议都不怎么支持。

I’m Mario Ritter.
马里奥·里特为您报道。