VOA慢速英语:中美贸易战对越南的利弊

Vietnam could be one of the biggest winners or biggest losers in a changing global economy. That finding comes from Moody's Investors Services, a financial company.
在不断变化的全球经济中，越南可能会成为最大的赢家或最大的输家之一。这是研究结果出自于穆迪投资者服务公司，这是一家金融公司。
Recently, Moody's announced findings of a study that looked at 23 countries across the Asia Pacific region. It found that Malaysia, Taiwan(China), Thailand and Vietnam were the most likely to gain from trade moving away from China.
最近，穆迪公布了对亚太地区23个国家的研究结果。研究发现，马来西亚、中国台湾地区、泰国以及越南最可能从摆脱中国贸易中获益。

But, Vietnam was among the countries that could be most hurt by a trade slowdown, too.
但是，越南也是受贸易放缓影响最严重的国家之一。

The Southeast Asian country has been searching for a way to gain from trade tensions between the U.S. and China.
这个东南亚小国一直寻求从中美贸易紧张关系中获益。

But those gains might not last, especially if a trade war between the world's two biggest economies reduces global trade overall.
但是这些收益可能不会持久，尤其是如果这两个全球最大经济体之间的贸易战导致全球总贸易额减少的话。

Analysts say that Vietnam, a trade-dependent country, needs to be ready.
分析师表示，越南这个依赖贸易的国家需要做好准备。

Sian Fenner is a lead economist at Oxford Economics in Singapore. She wrote that Vietnam's "dependence on foreign investor flows also makes it vulnerable to changing global sentiment."
希恩·芬纳（Sian Fenner）是新加坡牛津经济顾问公司的首席经济学家。她写道，越南对“外国投资者流动的依赖也会使其容易受到全球（贸易）情绪变化的影响。”

Fenner added, "As a small, open economy heavily dependent on external trade, an increase in protectionism and slower global trade would have significant ... effects for Vietnam, even if it is not the direct target of increased tariffs."
芬纳还说：“作为一个严重依赖对外贸易的小型开放经济体，贸易保护主义的增加和全球贸易放缓将会对越南产生重大影响，即使它不是增加关税的直接目标。”

U.S. President Donald Trump put tariffs on $50 billion worth of Chinese products last summer, citing the country's unfair trade practices. China responded with its own import taxes on U.S. goods. Government officials from both sides are supposed to meet this month to resolve the dispute.
美国总统川普去年夏天对价值500亿美元的中国产品征收关税，理由是该国的不公平贸易行为。中国也对美国产品征收进口税作为回应。双方政府官员本月会举行峰会来解决这一纠纷。

However, observers are divided on how likely a resolution to the conflict will be.
然而，观察人士对可能如何解决这一冲突产生了分歧。

The trade war, combined with similar trade protectionism around the world, raises the chances of global economic instability.
这次贸易战与世界各地的贸易保护主义加在一起，增加了全球经济不稳定的可能性。

While Vietnam cannot do much about the trade policies of other countries, it has received a number of recommendations on how to help itself. Advisers urge Vietnam to make reforms to its economy, for one.
虽然越南对其它国家的贸易政策做不了太多，但是该国已经得到了如何帮助自身的一些建议。顾问们督促越南改革经济，这也是建议之一。

Three experts, Tuan Ho, Trang Thi Ngoc Nguyen, and Tho Ngoc Tran, wrote in a report for Yusof Ishak Institute that the Vietnamese government should get serious about privatizing some state owned companies. They also suggested support for small businesses, such as through loans, and tougher screening of foreign investments.
Tuan Ho、 Trang Thi Ngoc Nguyen 和 Tho Ngoc Tran 这三名专家在尤索夫研究所的一份报告中写道，越南政府应该认真处理一些国有企业的私有化。他们还建议支持小企业，例如通过贷款和严格筛选外国投资。

The three noted that economic reform and wise public investments would help Vietnam deal with economic problems in the future. "That is particularly important in the context of a long-lasting global trade tension," they conclude.
这三位专家指出，经济改革和合理公共投资将会有助于越南解决未来的经济问题。他们总结道：“在全球贸易紧张关系长期存在的情况下，这一点尤为重要。”