专家追寻日本应对疫情巨大成功背后的真相

Many countries around the world are dealing with their worst coronavirus outbreaks yet. But one country, Japan, is seeing very few COVID-19 infections. Observers are trying to learn why.
世界上许多国家都在应对迄今为止最为严重的新冠肺炎疫情。但是日本这个国家出现的新冠肺炎感染病例很少。观察家们正试图了解其背后的原因。

As recently as late summer, Japan's coronavirus situation was not good. Deaths linked to COVID-19 were being reported each day. Hospitals were filled with coronavirus patients.
就在去年夏天，日本的新冠形势还不容乐观。每天都有与新冠肺炎相关的死亡报告。医院里挤满了新冠病毒患者。

In September, Japan sped up its vaccination campaign. The country saw a large drop in the number of reported cases. The number of deaths also sharply decreased.
去年九月，日本加快了疫苗接种运动。该国报告的病例数大幅下降。死亡人数也急剧下降。

Since then, the situation has continued to improve. In December, Japan has reported an average of less than one COVID-19 death a day. That is a shockingly low number for a country of 126 million people. No one knows exactly why Japan has experienced such success.
从那时起，新冠形势一直在改善。去年12月，日本报告的新冠肺炎死亡人数平均到每天要少于1人。对于一个拥有1.26亿人口的国家来说，这个一个低得惊人的数字。没有人确切知道为什么日本会取得如此大成功。

There are many possible explanations. Nearly 80 percent of Japan's population is fully vaccinated. Nearly everyone wears masks. And, even after the government ended some restrictions this autumn, people continued to socially distance themselves.
有很多种可能的解释。日本近80%的人口都接种了疫苗。几乎每个人都戴着口罩。而且，即使去年秋天政府取消了一些限制之后，人们仍然继续保持社交距离。

Some researchers have pointed to Japan's low rates of obesity. Several recent studies have found that COVID-19 is more severe in overweight individuals.
一些研究人员指出，日本的肥胖率很低。最近的几项研究发现，新冠肺炎在肥胖群体中更为严重。

Cultural customs may also play a part. For example, Japanese do not generally kiss, hug, or even shake hands when they meet.
文化习俗可能也起到了作用。例如，日本人见面时一般不会亲吻、拥抱甚至握手。

Many Japanese are also quiet in public settings, notes Kentaro Iwata. He is an infectious disease specialist at Japan's Kobe University.
岩田健太郎指出，许多日本人在公共场合也很安静。他是日本神户大学的传染病专家。

"Masking and keeping silent in public places is very important for fighting the virus. Everybody knows it, but practicing it can be very difficult in some parts of the world, maybe due to cultural reasons," Iwata said to VOA by email.
岩田健太郎通过邮件对美国之音表示：“在公共场所戴口罩和保持安静对于对抗病毒来说是非常重要的。每个人都知道这点，但是在世界上某些地方实现可能非常困难，这可能是由于文化原因。”

Those reasons, however, do not explain why nearby South Korea is dealing with its worst COVID-19 outbreak yet. South Korea shares many of the same cultural customs.
然而，这些原因并不能解释为什么邻近的韩国正在应对该国最严重的新冠肺炎疫情。韩国有许多相同的文化习俗。

Another possible explanation is that Japan is testing fewer people than other countries, said Kenji Shibuya. He is an epidemiologist and researcher at the Tokyo Foundation for Policy Research.
涉谷健二表示，另一种可能的解释是，日本检测人数要比其它国家少。他是东京政策研究基金会的流行病学家和研究员。

In the first half of December, Japan tested an average of 44,623 people a day, according to government data. South Korea, whose population is less than half that of Japan, carried out an average of 238,901 tests a day during the same period, according to official data.
根据政府数据，12月上半月，日本平均每天检测了44623人。根据官方数据，人口不到日本一半的韩国在同一时期平均每天进行238901次检测。

Because of Japan's lack of testing, it is difficult to believe that official case numbers represent reality, Shibuya told VOA in an email.
涉谷健二在邮件中对美国之音表示，由于日本缺乏检测，让人很难相信官方病例数字能代表现实情况。

However, if a lack of testing were the reason, Japan would have likely seen a rise in the number of hospitalizations or deaths.
然而，如果原因是缺乏检测，那么日本的住院或死亡人数可能就会增加。

Because there is not any clear explanation, some researchers have tried to search for a so-called X-factor. One study even suggested many Japanese people share a genetic feature linked to white blood cells that helps fight against COVID-19. Others think that the coronavirus version spreading in Japan may have changed itself so much it is disappearing.
由于没有任何明确的解释，一些研究人员试图寻找所谓的X因子。一些研究甚至表明，许多日本人都具备一个与白细胞相关的遗传特征，这有助于对抗新冠肺炎。还有人认为，在日本传播的新冠病毒版本可能已经发生了很大变化，以至于它开始消失。

But, the battle is not over, said Shibuya. He said he still expects the country to see a winter wave of infections.
但是涉谷健二表示，疫情还没结束。他说，他预计该国仍将出现一波冬季感染浪潮。

Japan identified its first cases of community spread of the omicron version of the virus. Scientists have said omicron spreads much faster than any earlier version of the virus. Officials say many of those found to be infected with omicron in Japan have no recent history of foreign travel.
日本发现了首个奥密克戎变种的社区传染病例。科学家们表示，奥密克戎的传播速度比之前任何版本的病毒都要快。官员们表示，许多在日本发现的奥密克戎感染病例最近都没有出国史。

I'm Ashley Thompson.
我是阿什利·汤普森。