How Long Will North Korea’s Pandemic Lockdown Last?

When the coronavirus first appeared, North Korea closed its borders faster than almost any other country.
当新冠病毒首次出现时，朝鲜关闭边境的速度几乎比其它任何国家都要快。

The secretive nation's weak health care system would face major problems dealing with a large disease outbreak.
这个神秘国家薄弱的医疗体系在应对大规模疾病爆发时会遇到重大问题。

But nearly two years later, North Korea still appears to have few tools – other than lockdowns – to fight the coronavirus pandemic.
但是近两年之后，朝鲜除了封锁，似乎没什么手段来对抗新冠病毒大流行。

North Korea has refused offers of COVID-19 vaccines from other countries. It has also rejected the United Nations-supported COVAX vaccine supply program. The World Health Organization says North Korea is one of only two countries that has not yet started vaccination campaigns. The other is Eritrea.
朝鲜拒绝了其它国家提供的新冠肺炎疫苗。该国还拒绝了联合国支持的新冠肺炎疫苗实施计划。世卫组织表示，朝鲜是仅有的两个尚未开始疫苗接种运动的国家。另一个国家是厄立特里亚。

Instead, North Korea has continued border closures and enforced severe travel restrictions within the country.
相反，朝鲜继续关闭边境，并在国内实施严格的旅行限制。

Some observers question North Korea's claims that it has completely kept the coronavirus out of the country. But experts do admit that the early lockdown orders likely prevented pandemic deaths.
一些观察人士质疑朝鲜宣称的已经新冠病毒彻底挡在国门之外的说法。但是专家确实承认，早期的封锁令可能阻止了大流行病死亡。

"It works, let's face it. North Korea is able to seal its borders very tightly and control movement. And we know these viruses cannot infect others when they can't move," says Kee Park. He is a North Korea expert at the Massachusetts-based Harvard Medical School.
基·帕克表示：“这样做有效，让我们面对现实吧。朝鲜能够非常严密地封锁边界并控制人员流动。我们知道病毒在没有人员流动时无法感染他人。”他是马萨诸塞州哈佛医学院的朝鲜问题专家。

But as North Korea enters year three of its lockdown, signs of economic problems are developing.
但是随着朝鲜进入封锁的第二年，出现经济问题的迹象正在显现。

Basic food supplies are now too costly for poorer people in the country. Outside humanitarian aid, an important part of North Korea's economy, has been reduced.
现在对于该国较贫困的人来说，基本食物供应成本过高。作为朝鲜经济重要组成部分的外部人道主义援助已经减少。

The economy has taken a major hit, says Lee Sang Yong. He is chief editor of the Daily NK, a publication based in Seoul, South Korea.
李相镕表示，朝鲜经济受到了重大打击。他是朝鲜首尔的《Daily NK》杂志的主编。

"Ordinary people now eat only two meals per day instead of three. And the ratio of rice to corn they consume is 3 to 7 instead of 7 to 3. It's clear the economic situation is getting worse," Lee said.
李相镕表示：“普通人现在每天只吃两餐，而不是三餐。他们消耗的大米与玉米的比例是3：7，而不是7：3。很明显，经济形势正在恶化。”

Many experts say the situation cannot continue for much longer.
许多专家称这种情况不可能持久。

"We are not sure how long they can continue and endure these kinds of difficulties," said Park Won Gon, a professor at Seoul's Ewha University. He added, "Many people, especially so-called experts on the North Korean economy, are saying next year, probably in the first half...will be the deadline."
首尔梨花大学教授朴元刚表示：“我们不确定他们能坚持多久，能忍受这些困难多久。”他还表示：“许多人，尤其是所谓的朝鲜经济专家，都说明年，可能上半年将是最后期限。”

There are signs that North Korea is trying to open its border to trade with China, its main economic partner. Satellite photos show North Korea is building several centers to improve safety measures in its import operations.
有迹象表明，朝鲜正试图开放边境与其主要经济伙伴中国进行贸易。卫星照片显示，朝鲜正在建设多个中心，以改善其进口业务的安全措施。

Kee Park says any wider opening with China may be tricky, since both countries are using a "zero COVID" approach.
基·帕克表示，对中国进行更广泛的开放可能会很棘手，因为两国都采用“零新冠”策略。

North Korea has expressed worry about the effectiveness and side effects of the AstraZeneca vaccine that COVAX has provided. It is also concerned about foreign aid workers who would be necessary to carry out a vaccine campaign.
朝鲜对新冠肺炎疫苗实施计划提供的阿斯利康疫苗的有效性和副作用表示担忧。它还对开展疫苗运动所需的外国援助人员表示担忧。

North Korea could attempt to get COVID-19 treatment pills instead of vaccines. Some observers say the pills could be especially useful in countries that do not have enough vaccines.
朝鲜可能会尝试获得新冠肺炎治疗药物，而不是疫苗。有观察人士表示，这些药物在疫苗不足的国家可能特别有用。

But in a pandemic likely seen as a threat to the rule of Kim Jong Un, the leader may instead feel the need to show more control. And that means the lockdown may continue.
但是在一场可能被视为对金正恩统治构成威胁的大流行当中，领导人可能反而觉得需要表现出更强的控制力。这意味着封锁可能会继续。

I'm Jonathan Evans.
我是乔纳森·埃文斯。(hxen.net原创翻译，请勿转载，违者必究！)