西方制裁伤害俄罗斯的经济

Western Sanctions are dealing a severe blow to Russia’s economy. Russia’s money, the Rouble, is dropping to record lows. Foreign businesses are fleeing, and prices in Russia are rising.
西方制裁正对俄罗斯经济造成严重打击。俄罗斯货币卢布跌至历史低点。外国企业纷纷逃离，俄罗斯物价也在上涨。

Russia's economy was suffering long before the invasion of Ukraine. That suffering is now increasing.
早在入侵乌克兰之前，俄罗斯经济就已经陷入困境。这种痛苦现在正在加深。

But a total collapse is unlikely, several economists say.
但是几位经济学家表示，俄罗斯经济全面崩溃的可能性不大。

Richard Connolly is an expert on the Russian economy at the Royal United Services Institute in Britain. He said Russia has built, "an economy that's geared for conflict."
理查德·康诺利是英国皇家联合服务研究院俄罗斯经济方面的专家。他说俄罗斯已经建立了一个“不惧冲突的经济体。”

The Russian government's involvement in the economy, and the money it continues to make from oil and gas exports, will help ease the economic effects for many workers. Russia has experienced three serious financial crises in the last 30 years.
俄罗斯政府对经济的参与，以及它继续从石油和天然气出口中赚取收入，将有助于缓解对许多劳动者的经济影响。在过去30年里，俄罗斯经历了3次严重的经济危机。

Still, the value of Russian money has fallen greatly. That will drive up prices for imported goods. Inflation was already at 9 percent before the conflict.
尽管如此，俄罗斯货币价值已经大幅下降。这将推高进口商品价格。冲突前俄罗斯的通货膨胀率已经达到了9%。

Sanctions have frozen a large amount of Russia's foreign money. State finances, however, are doing well with low debt. When the government does need to borrow, it can borrow money from local banks. Additionally, the government announced support this week for large companies it believes are important to the economy.
制裁冻结了俄罗斯大量外国资金。然而，国家财政在低债务的情况下表现良好。当政府确实需要借债时，可以向当地银行借款。此外，俄罗斯政府本周宣布对其认为极具经济重要性的大型企业给予支持。

The short-term effects of Russia's economic growth have differing estimates. That is because more sanctions could come, and the fallout from President Vladimir Putin's war are unclear.
对于俄罗斯经济增长遭受的短期影响，经济学家有着不同的估计。那是因为可能会有更多制裁，而普京总统所发动战争的后果尚不清楚。

Tim Ash is a senior market researcher at BlueBay Asset Management. He said, "Russians will be a lot poorer — they won't have cash to holiday in Turkey or send their kids to school in the West — and even then, because of Putin, they will not be welcome."
蒂姆·阿什是蓝湾资产管理公司的高级市场研究员。他说：“俄罗斯人会更穷，他们会没钱去土耳其度假或送孩子去西方国家上学。即使他们有钱，因为普京，他们也会不受欢迎。”

He sees economic growth dropping 10 percent. Other economists see a drop of as little as 2 percent or something in between.
他认为俄罗斯经济增长将会下降10%。其它经济学家认为下降幅度仅为2%，或介于两者之间。

The long-term outlook for Russia's economy is not good, for reasons that were clear before the war. A few favored insiders control major companies and industries. Russia mainly depends on the oil and gas industry. The average amount a Russian person produces in 2020 was around what it was in 2014.
由于战前就显而易见的原因，俄罗斯经济的长期前景并不乐观。少数内部特权人士控制着大公司和行业。俄罗斯主要依赖石油和天然气工业。俄罗斯人在2020年的平均产出与2014年的水平差不多。

Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, foreign investments built up over the last 30 years, and jobs it brought, are leaving Russia. Large companies like Apple and Ikea have stopped sales or production in Russia. Large energy companies like BP, Exxon and Shell have said they will stop buying Russian oil and gas or leave their partnerships.
自苏联解体以来，过去30年积累的外国投资及其带来的就业机会正在远离俄罗斯。苹果和宜家等大公司已经停止在俄罗斯的销售或生产。英国石油公司、埃克森美孚以及壳牌等大型能源公司表示，他们将停止购买俄罗斯石油和天然气，或退出合作伙伴关系。

Russia's central bank has stepped in. It has attempted to strengthen the ruble and the banking system, restrict taking out foreign money from banks, and has kept the stock market closed for nearly two weeks.
俄罗斯央行已经介入。它试图强化卢布和银行体系，限制从银行提取外币，并使股市休市近两周。

The Russian government has announced measures to restrict foreign investors from fleeing. Such restrictions avoid a complete financial collapse, but they also close off the economy to trade and investment that could fuel growth.
俄罗斯政府已经宣布限制外国投资者逃离的措施。此类措施避免了彻底的金融奔溃，但是也让经济无法进行可能推动增长的贸易和投资。

Since facing sanctions over its 2014 seizure of Ukraine's Crimea, Russia has prepared for sanctions brought on by the West.
自从2014年因为占领克里米亚而面临制裁以来，俄罗斯已经为西方实施制裁做好了准备。

Connolly has written a book on Russia's reaction to sanctions. He said Russia's economy is "a durable, in some ways primitive system." He said it is based on low debt and the government controls most of the banking system. The central bank is able to intervene and support the ruble and banks.
康诺利就俄罗斯应对制裁写了一本书。他说，俄罗斯的经济是一种持久的、在某些方面有点原始的系统。他说，这是基于低债务以及政府控制大部分银行系统。俄罗斯央行能够干预和支持卢布以及银行。

"I'm not saying they're going to have a wonderful time. I'm saying they have the resources to deal with these problems," he said.
他说：“我并不是说他们会过得很好。我意思是他们有资源来处理这些问题。”

Trade will fall and fewer goods will be available. But the weaker ruble means the Russian government earns more money for the oil it sells because oil is priced in dollars. With recently higher prices, Connolly estimates Russia is getting 2.7 times the number of rubles from oil compared with 2019. That money can pay workers and those who are retired.
贸易将会下降，可购买商品将会减少。但是卢布走软意味着俄罗斯政府会从其销售的石油中赚到更多钱，因为石油是以美元计价的。康诺利估计，由于最近价格上涨，俄罗斯从石油中赚取的卢布数额是2019年的2.7倍。这笔钱可以用于支付工人和退休人员的费用。

U.S. and British officials said they will ban oil imports from Russia. Europe, which depends more on Russia for energy, has held back.
英美官员表示，他们将禁止从俄罗斯进口石油。更多依赖俄罗斯提供能源的欧洲已经退缩了。

I'm Gregory Stachel.
我是格雷戈里·斯塔切尔。