世贸预计全球贸易增长将继续放慢

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The World Trade Organization's (WTO) annual report finds world-trade growth slowed to 5.5 percent in 2007 from 8.5 percent the year before. WTO predicts global trade growth will continue to slow this year.

世界贸易组织发表的一份年度报告称，世界贸易增长从2006年的8.5%减慢到2007年的5.5%。世贸组织预计，2008年的全球贸易增长将继续放慢。

The World Trade Organization says the global financial crisis is having a negative impact on world trade. But, it says the results are uneven, with the wealthier countries generally doing worse than the poorer countries.

世贸组织说，全球的金融危机正在对世界贸易产生负面影响。不过，世贸组织说，结果并不平衡，总体来说富有国家比贫穷国家情况更糟。

The report notes the steam has gone out of the U.S. economy, which it says has lost its position as the engine of global growth.

这份报告说，影响的范畴已经超越美国经济。报告说，美国经济已经失去全球经济增长引擎的地位。

The report says the financial market turbulence has considerably reduced economic growth projections for some major developed markets and has clouded the prospects for world trade in 2008. It says the U.S. sub-prime mortgage and banking crises are likely to further depress global trade growth.

报告指出，金融市场的动荡在很大程度上减少了一些主要发达市场的经济增长预测，给2008年的世界贸易前景蒙上阴影。报告说，美国的次贷危机和金融危机可能会使全球贸易增长陷入进一步的衰退。

It expects economic growth in the United States will be flat this year and will have repercussions elsewhere, especially in Europe later in the year.

世贸组织预计，今年的美国经济增长乏力，并将影响其它地方，尤其是今年晚些时候将波及欧洲。

WTO Senior Economist, Michael Finger, tells VOA the strength of the oil and commodity prices is another worrying factor.

世贸组织资深经济学家迈克尔.芬格对美国之音说，另外一个值得关注的因素是石油和商品价格的坚挺。

"The oil importing countries will have to adjust to the much higher cost of energy and this erodes the purchasing power of consumers and increases the cost for business and this is will have a further adverse affect," he said. "To some extent this already is cooperated in our calculations and so we expect that world merchandise trade in real terms will expand only by 4.5 percent this year, which is the lowest growth since 2002."

他说：“石油进口国必须做出调整，适应更高的能源成本，因为这侵吞了消费者的购买力、增加了商业成本，并将产生反作用。在某种程度上，我们已经将这种因素考虑到计算当中，因此我们预计世界商品贸易按实际价值计算今年将仅增长4.5%。这是自2002年以来的最低增长率。”

The WTO reports world trade will continue to slow markedly in 2008, but not all regions will suffer. It notes Mexico and Canada, which are closest to the United States, will feel the brunt of the slowdown. But repercussions will be smaller among European countries that trade with each other.

世贸组织的报告说，2008年的世界贸易将显著放缓，但并非所有地区都受到影响。报告说，离美国最近的墨西哥和加拿大将首当其冲受到美国经济放缓的影响，但对相互贸易的欧洲国家的影响将较小。

The report says the European transitional economies, such as Russia, are showing strong growth, as are Central and South America, Africa, the Middle East and Asia. It notes the most populous developing countries, China and India reported outstandingly high economic growth last year.

这份报告说，欧洲正在转型的经济体，如俄罗斯的增长强劲，中美、南美、非洲、中东和亚洲也是一样。报告指出，世界人口最多的发展中国家中国和印度去年经济出现了显著的高速增长。

Finger says even Africa is doing better than the developed countries, with economic growth rates of about five percent.

芬格说，即使非洲的经济发展状况也比发达国家好。非洲的经济增长在5%左右。

"Africa, the region as a whole, is a huge net exporter of fuels," he added. "So, quite a number of African counties have export revenues, which doubled over the last three years. But, of course, there are also countries in Africa which are net importers of energy, net importers of food and these countries are suffering from the high prices of energy and food."

他说：“整个非洲都是巨大的燃料出口国，因此相当一部分非洲国家都有出口收入，他们的出口收入在过去3年里翻了一番。当然，非洲也有一些能源的净进口国，粮食的净进口国。这些国家正蒙受着高能源和粮食价格的困扰。”

WTO Director-General Pascal Lamy acknowledges the global economy is going through an uncertain and difficult period. But, he warns protectionist policies surfacing in some countries are no solution to these problems. He says a reinforced trading system is an essential anchor for economic stability and development.

世贸组织干事长拉米承认，全球经济正经历着不确定性和困难的时期。不过他警告说，一些国家正在出现的保护主义政策解决不了目前的问题。他说，强化的贸易体系是经济稳定和发展的必不可少的基石。