报告：中国廉价劳动力资源在萎缩

中国的研究显示，中国巨大的廉价劳动力资源正在萎缩。这可能对严重依赖劳动密集型制造业的经济造成伤害。

China's vast supply of low-cost labor has been the backbone of its rapid economic expansion in the past three decades. But according to a leading research organization, the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, the days of a limitless oversupply of workers are coming to an end.

中国巨大的低廉劳动力资源是过去三十年间中国保持经济快速增长的支柱。但是根据中国主要研究机构，中国社会科学院的研究，有无限剩余劳动力的日子行将结束。

The academy's research shows that China's rural labor surplus, the source of migrant workers for the country's factories, is about 50 million people - far less than the previously estimated 150 to 200 million.

社科院的研究显示，中国农村剩余劳动力大约有5千万人，远低于此前估计的1.5亿到两亿的数量。这些人是中国工厂农民工的源头。

Jonathan Unger, director of the Contemporary China Center at the Australian National University, says fewer rural residents are willing to leave their farms today. This is partly because there are more employment opportunities in rural areas, and because agricultural prices have gone up.

澳大利亚国立大学当代中国中心主任安戈(Jonathan Unger)说，如今愿意离开村庄的农村居民越来越少了。其中部分原因在于农村地区有了更多的就业机会，还有就是农产品价格的增长。

"And at the same time taxes in the countryside, fees in the countryside have gone down because of new sets of government policies," he explained. "And so people are not desperately forced in the way they were five, six years ago to leave the farm in order to earn enough money for their families, in order to help support their families at home."

安戈说，“同时，政府制定的新政策降低了农村地区的税费。这样一来，人们就不象在5、6年前那样为了赚钱养家，或接济老家而迫不及待地离开农村。”

The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences says another reason for the reduced labor pool is the country's population policy, which allows city dwellers to have just one child, and farmers up to two if the first one is a girl.

中国社科院表示，国家的人口政策是劳力减少的另一个原因。中国的人口政策允许城市居民生一个孩子，而农民则可以在第一胎是女孩的情况下生第二个孩子。

A United Nations study predicts that China's workforce will peak in 2015 and then gradually drop. Some of China's major manufacturing areas, such as Guangdong province, already face labor shortages.

联合国的一项研究预测中国的劳动力到2015年时会达到顶峰，然后会逐渐下降。在中国一些主要的制造业地区，例如广东省，已经面临劳力短缺问题。

Some economists think these shortages are, at least for now, a regional rather than a national problem. Sun Mingchun, an economist with investment bank Lehman Brothers in Hong Kong, points out that there are still millions of people in China who can not find work.

一些经济学家认为，这样的短缺至少在现在是区域性，而非全国性的问题。投资银行雷曼兄弟的经济学者孙明春指出，数百万中国人仍然找不到工作。

"The government has a goal of creating like nine million, ten million jobs per year," Sun said. "But if you look at the new increase last year - the increase was only six million. There are still three, four million people who can't find a job."

“政府有个目标，每年要创造出9百万到1千万个工作机会。但如果你看看去年的数字，新增加的工作只有6百万个，仍然有3、4百万人没有找到工作。”

The average monthly income of rural migrant workers has increased significantly in the past few years, going up 11-and-a-half percent in 2006 and 20 percent in 2007. Sun and Unger say the main reason wages have gone up is inflation, which means spending power has not risen as much.

过去几年间，农民工的平均月收入有了显著的增长，2006年上涨11.5%，2007年增长20%。孙明春和安戈表示，工资上涨的主要原因是通货膨胀，也就是说消费能力没有多大提高。

Rising labor costs and a shortage of workers in some areas are part of the reason that some foreign manufacturers have started to move production to other, cheaper parts of Asia, for example neighboring Vietnam.

一些外国制造商已经开始将制造业转移到更便宜的亚洲地区，例如中国的邻国越南。其中部分原因就是劳力成本的上升和一些地区缺少工人。