格林斯潘：美国似乎难免经济衰退

前美联储主席格林斯潘说，在美国最大的一些金融公司持续动荡之际，可能会有更多的机构面临破产，而且美国似乎不大可能避免经济衰退。

After leading the U.S. central bank from 1987 until two years ago, Alan Greenspan remains one of America's influential voices on economic matters.

格林斯潘从1978年开始一直担任美国央行行长，直到两年前。但是他仍然是对美国经济问题最有影响力的人之一。

Greenspan says America's current financial climate, in which the Federal government has felt compelled to seize control of two mortgage giants and engineer the takeover of a major investment firm, is unlike anything he has ever seen before.

格林斯潘说，联邦政府最近感到不得不接管两大房贷公司并策划接收一家大的投资公司，这种金融气候是他以前所从未见过的。

Appearing on ABC's This Week program, Greenspan said the near-collapse of another well-known investment firm, Lehman Brothers, only adds to his consternation.

格林斯潘在美国全国广播公司“本周”节目上说，另外一家知名的投资公司“雷曼兄弟”即将破产的，这使他更为震惊。

"This is a once in a half century, probably once in a century, type of event. There is no question that this is in the process of outstripping anything I have seen. And it still is not resolved and it still has a way to go," he said.

他说：“这是50年，或者100年不遇的重大事件。毫无疑问，事情的发展将比他所见过的任何情况更加严重，而且问题还远远没有解决。”

Greenspan tied the upheaval in financial firms to turmoil in America's housing market, saying the current picture will not improve until falling home prices stabilize in the United States.

格林斯潘将金融公司的动荡归咎于美国房市的混乱。他说，在美国持续下跌的房价稳定之前，目前这种局势不会改善。

Earlier this year, the Federal government provided an emergency loan to investment giant Bear Stearns, and helped engineer the selling of the firm to a rival corporation. Last week, the Bush administration took over two government-sponsored private mortgage firms, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, to rescue them from insolvency.

今年早些时候，联邦政府向大投资公司贝尔斯登提供紧急贷款，并帮助策划了将贝尔斯登出售给一个竞争对手公司。上星期，布什政府接管了两个政府担保的私人房贷公司，房地美和房利美，避免了这两家公司破产。

Greenspan said endless government rescues are not a good idea.

格林斯潘说，政府没完没了的救助，并非上策。

"We should not try to protect every single institution. The ordinary cost of financial change has winners and losers, to the extent that bailouts are draws on our scarce savings supply, you undermine the growth of the economy, and ultimately you get stagnation," said Greenspan.

他说：“我们不应设法保护每个公司。金融机构更迭一般的代价就是既有赢家，也有输家，因为救助行动需动用我们本已匮乏的储蓄，将损害我们的经济增长，最终导致经济停滞。”

But the former fed chief did say that some firms and institutions warrant assistance.

不过，这位前美联储主席强调，一些公司和机构有正当的理由得到政府的救助。

"There are certain types of institutions which are so fundamental to the functioning of the movement of savings into the real investment in an economy that on very rare occasions - and this is one of them - it is desirable to prevent them from liquidating in a sharply disruptive manner," continued Greenspan.

他说：“有某类机构对储蓄流通进入一个经济体实际投资运作具有根本的作用，房利美和房地美就是其中一例，在罕见的情况下，最好防止他们以剧烈破坏性的方式倒闭。”

Despite a housing crisis, wild fluctuations in energy prices, and a jump in unemployment, the U.S. economy has continued to expand, albeit at a slow pace. Greenspan indicated he is pessimistic as to whether the United States and the larger world economy can avert a recession altogether, saying the chances are, in his words, "less than 50 percent."

虽然房市危机，能源价格剧烈动荡，失业率上升，但美国经济仍在扩张，尽管速度缓慢。格林斯潘指出，他对美国和整个世界经济是否能完全避免一次经济衰退，颇感悲观。他说，避免经济衰退的机率不到50%。

"I cannot believe we could have a once in a century type of financial crisis without a significant impact on the real economy, globally," he said. "And I think that is, indeed, what is in the process of what is occurring."

他说：“我无法相信在我们遇到百年一次的那种金融危机时，不会对全球的实体经济产生重大影响。我认为这的确就是目前正在发生的一切。”

Greenspan noted some economic positives: recent declines in oil prices and as well as in U.S inflation. He said he would be delighted if the United States managed to stave off a recession, but added he would not bet on such an outcome.

格林斯潘提到一些经济的积极因素，最近油价下跌，以及美国通货膨胀在下降。他说，如果美国能设法度过衰退，他将非常高兴。但是他说，他不会对这样的结果打赌。