国际英语新闻：U.S. economic recovery unlikely before end of 2010, expert says

NEW YORK, May 15 (Xinhua) -- As the U.S. economy was trapped into a long and deep recession, the timing of the economic rebound is still a moot point, while John Chen, President of Sybase, thinks that the recovery will not start until the end of next year.

    "2009 is a kind of the throw-away year. I don't think the recovery will be before the end of 2010," said Chen after ringing the closing bell on the New York Stock Exchange on Thursday.

    Chen, who runs Sybase, a software and database company in Dublin, California, was a member of former President George W. Bush's export council, the U.S. government's principal advisory body on international trade, and has been an Independent Director of Walt Disney Company since January 2004. In addition, he is a member of many distinguished professional associations, such as Committee of 100, of which he is also newly-appointed chairman.

    Compared with the Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke expecting the U.S. economic activity to bottom out, then to turn up later this year, Chen is seemingly more pessimistic about the whole economy. "We are in a U-shape cycle. It will take a while to get out. Where we are is starting to get closer to the bottom, I actually don't think this is the lowest point," he said.

    Chen elaborated that the unemployment is the biggest problem. He predicted that the unemployment rate will eventually surge to more than 10 percent. Statistics from the U.S. Labor Department showed the unemployment rate climbed to 8.9 percent in April, the highest level since 1983.

    The unemployment will hit consumer credit and capital spending of businesses. And consumer spending is crucial for the rebound, because it accounts for two third of the U.S. economy.

    The housing market, however, was less concerned, after the U.S. government has attached enough attention to it. Chen explained: "The government injected the money into banks for the liquidity. The regulatory agency stepped in to help house owners. And the interest rates are so low. The government cannot help 100 percent, but it really helps a lot."

    Talking about the huge stimulus plan taken by the Obama administration, Chen said every coin has two sides. On the one side, the stimulus plan ensures the liquidity to the market. On the other, the government under the pressure from taxpayers drives lots of short-time agenda of companies, which does harm to entrepreneur businesses. He didn't see direct opportunities for technology companies such as Sybase from the plan.

    However, Chen is more confident in China's economic growth. He said: "The eight percent growth (of China's economy this year) is not a easy target, but it is not out of the question."

    First of all, China is currently the biggest internal consumption market. Secondly, China also has a very managed economic policy, which makes adjustment easier during the tough time. Therefore, "the eight percent growth is very possible," Chen emphasized.

    As a warm-hearted promoter of Sino-American economic and trade relations, John attaches importance to the market opening to each other. At the policy level, the U.S. should promote Chinese companies to make investment in the country. In face of the economic downturn, the U.S. needs investment to "create more jobs." And the Chinese market should also be more "transparent" to the U.S. firms, allowing more technology and consumer products to freely compete in the market.

    Chen joined Sybase in August 1997 when the company was in major trouble. It only took less than two years for him to save the dying Sybase and turned it into one of the largest mobile technology companies in the world. And Chen is highly respected for the "turn-around" he accomplished at Sybase. No doubt Sybase set a successful model for technology companies.

    He suggested: "Chinese companies who are willing to go abroad should firstly localize their images and have good customer support," because the U.S. is a market that pays for value and a word-of-mouth market. He added that both a long-term investment and the idea of building customer loyalty are required. "The U.S. doesn't just buy cheaper things," he said. "Technology in this country (in the U.S.) is about value-add, is about leadership and is about innovation."