国际英语新闻：No guarantee of early Israeli-Palestinian prisoner swap

JERUSALEM, Oct. 4 (Xinhua) -- Gilad Shalit is alive -- that was the headline dominating the weekend news in Israel, after the Palestinian militant group Hamas Friday released a video of the captured Israeli soldier. In order to obtain proof of his condition, Israel released 19 Palestinian prisoners on the same day.

    Despite the events of the weekend, Shalit remains in Hamas' hands and some 10,000 Palestinians are still serving sentences in Israeli jails.

Shalit's fate is not only of considerable importance to his family and friends, but also tied up with wider peace issues between Israelis and Palestinians and between feuding Palestinian factions.

    The fate of Shalit, who was seized by Gaza militants on the Israel-Gaza border on June 25, 2006, was often seen in parallel to that of two other Israeli soldiers captured weeks later by Hezbollah on the Lebanese border.

The newly-freed prisoner Rawda Habib (L), who was supposed to be freed but Israel postponed her release to Sunday due to Jewish holidays, embraces with her husband in Gaza, Oct. 4, 2009. On Friday, Israel freed 19 Palestinian female prisoners in exchange for a videotape of Gilad Shalit, the Israeli soldier captured by Hamas in a cross-border raid near Gaza in 2006, who is now jailed in the Gaza Strip.

    They were returned to Israel last year in body bags. Until Friday's release of the tape, some in Israel feared a similar fate awaiting the Shalit family.

    The video-for-prisoners arrangement was brokered by German intermediaries. Along with Egypt, Germany, which has been active in cutting such deals, has been trying to push for an early release of Shalit in exchange for at least 1,000 Palestinian prisoners.

    Since viewing the tape on Friday afternoon and its subsequent broadcast on Israeli TV and around the world, Shalit's family has said its publication in no way makes certain his imminent release.

    OPTIMISM FOR FUTURE DEAL

    However, outside of Shalit's immediate circle of loved ones, there appears to be renewed optimism that a deal could go ahead in the not-too-distant future.

    "I think the exchange is the beginning of a deal between Hamas and Israel. If Hamas did not want to release Shalit, it wouldn't have given Israel this video," former Palestinian Prisoners Minister Ashraf Ajrami said on Sunday.

    One has to look back at events in recent months to understand that Friday's deal was not merely a flash in the pan but part of a process that began some time ago, according to Moshe Marzuk, a researcher at the Institute of Counter Terrorism in Israel's Herzliya.

    He said this deal follows a series of efforts by the parties themselves and international players, including former U.S. President Jimmy Carter.

    "This is very much a signal of intent and good will on the parts of both Israel and Hamas, though it is clear that the German intermediaries gave the process a professional push," said Marzuk.

    HURDLES IN THE OFFING

    Now the Germans and Egyptians and other international figures who are working behind the scenes to obtain a deal will have to try to persuade Israel and the Gaza-based Hamas that they need to show a degree of flexibility to arrive at a final deal.

    Among those thought to be playing a role in the negotiations is France. Shalit holds French nationality in addition to his Israeli status.

    Hamas wants at least 1,000 Palestinians to be released from Israeli jails in exchange for Shalit. The movement has provided the names of those it wants to be freed.

    Israel is refusing to let go around 125 of those mentioned on the Hamas list, according to reports in the Hebrew media.

    Traditionally, Israel has refused to release prisoners "with blood on their hands," which always meant those who Israel said had killed Israeli civilians or soldiers and those who helped perpetrate the attacks.

    However, when Ehud Olmert was Israeli prime minister, until March this year, he made it clear that Israel would have to show some flexibility in this line and make "painful" decisions.

    His successor and incumbent premier Benjamin Netanyahu is a more hawkish figure than Olmert, but Netanyahu has entered the picture as negotiations are ongoing, so he has to decide whether to renege on what Olmert was prepared to give or to push on and tell his constituency he had no choice in order to gain Shalit's freedom.

    PRISONER SWAP CANNOT BE SEEN IN ISOLATION

    All of this cannot be seen in isolation but must be placed in the broader context of two ongoing disputes, said Marzuk.

    Hamas and the other leading Palestinian movement, Fatah, are still embroiled in a bitter and sometimes bloody argument as to which of them is the legitimate representative of the Palestinian people.

    At the same time, Israel and the Palestinian National Authority, which is currently under Fatah's control, appear set to resume peace talks.

    With elections looming in the Palestinian territories, Hamas is keen to show the electorate that it is capable of completing the prisoner exchange, said Ajrami.

    "Hamas is currently not liked by the Palestinian public so it's important for Hamas to contribute to the release of Palestinian prisoners to show that it is concerned about Palestinian interests," he said.

    Completing the Shalit deal will also help when it comes to the internal negotiations between Hamas and Fatah.

    "Hamas wants to show that it is capable of operating in the diplomatic arena and not just as an armed organization," said Marzuk.

    When Hamas engages Fatah in talks Hamas, wants to show it can deliver, for example, by reducing Israel's stranglehold on Gaza and by improving the economic situation in the coastal enclave, said Marzuk, adding that by displaying a degree of flexibility and goodwill regarding Shalit, Hamas is sending a message about its ability to operate in a normative political framework.

    On the Israeli-Palestinian front, Hamas wants to be a part of the process. If Hamas and Fatah arrive at an agreement that allow selections to go ahead in 2010, Hamas will expect to have a say in talks with Israel from that point onwards.

    As a result, Hamas has to show maturity on the diplomatic front and preparedness to engage Israel.

    All of these give people like Marzuk and Ajrami a sense of cautious optimism that in the next few months, hundreds of Palestinian prisoners will return to their homes in Gaza and the West Bank and Shalit will leave his place of captivity in Gaza and return home he has not seen in more than three years.