国际英语新闻：BP oil spill's impact likely to last longer, says observer

Regarding the short-term negative impacts of the oil spill on environment, Fox thinks that one major problem relates to the timing. He said: "The occurrence in spring means that it may impact the reproductive cycle for many species, and birds in particular. The economic impact on those sectors which depend on the environment, such as commercial fishing and recreation, will depend to a great extent on the duration and volume of the leak."

As for the long-term effect, Fox thinks it depends as well on those factors. He said: "The record of far larger incidents over the past decades with similarities can be studied for clues on the long-term impacts. The present event is dwarfed by a far larger spill in 1979, when an exploratory oil well accident released a far greater amount of oil into the Gulf of Mexico over the course of many months. In addition, in 1991 Saddam Hussein ordered his retreating army to pump a far more massive amount of crude oil into the (Persian) Gulf."

Fox considers the oil spill a very serious problem on many levels beyond the obvious immediate environmental and economic impacts.

He further explained: "The issue of energy, one of the most important before this event, is impacted in various ways. The emotional aspects, which are always present, become understandably magnified in the aftermath of such a dramatic event. It may have a political impact on the attempts to develop additional domestic sources of hydrocarbons."

In addition, Fox believes that the impact on the regulatory process may prove substantial, with a likely review of the entire regulatory process. "Not the least of its impacts will be on the court system as an untold number of legal claims of all types will move forward," he noted.