国际英语新闻：Global aging challenges sovereign debt sustainability: S&P report

Emerging market sovereigns outside of Europe will have a slightly more positive trajectory, where population aging is projected to take place against the background of relatively higher economic growth than in advanced economies.

If current policies, aging-dependent public expenditure programs and associated interest payments remain unchanged, fiscal deficits and government debt are predicted to increase rapidly from the middle of this decade, the report pointed out.

According to the study's hypothetical scenario, the median country deficit may rise from 5.3 percent of GDP to more than 6 percent of GDP by the mid-2020s, assuming no policy change.

The median general government net debt burden may increase to 48 percent of GDP to 2020, and accelerate thereafter. By the 2030s, the median net debt burden may be at almost 90 percent of GDP, and be on an explosive path to above almost 245 percent of GDP by 2050, the report said.

Meanwhile, the interest cost of the additional borrowing required would exacerbate the demographic spending pressure, and deficits may rise inexorably to 7.6 percent of GDP in 2030 and to 17.6 percent by the middle of the century, the report warned.

Even though it is unlikely that governments will allow debt and deficit burdens to spiral out of control in the manner outlined above, the scenario nevertheless reveals the huge task facing governments in reducing benefits granted by unfunded state-run social security systems or achieving further fiscal belt-tightening, S&P said in a statement.

The financial and economic crisis has interrupted governments' efforts to manage the aging-related challenges, S&P said.

The rapid build-up of government debt since 2007 strengthened the need for reforms aimed at containing sovereign budget risks, especially in countries with high expected future increases in age-related spending.

"To contain the related budgetary risks, an increasing number of sovereigns have been undertaking reform of pension or health-care systems," Mrsnik said. "However, as the study shows, the projected magnitude of the future fiscal burden will, in our view, require additional efforts."