国际英语新闻：Egypt's NDP consolidates domination in political landscape

CAIRO, Dec. 25 (Xinhua) -- Egypt's political scene was fraught with new figures and uNPRecedented movements from the opposition in the year 2010, but after the climactic parliamentary elections, the ruling National Democratic Party (NDP) acquired a stronger domination in the country.

In the wake of a landslide parliamentary election win, the NDP kicked off its annual conference on Saturday with a mood of victory to discuss way to fulfill its pledges stated in the electoral platform.

In the newly-elected People's Assembly that held the opening session two weeks ago, the ruling party secured 420 seats in the 518-strong parliament. Given most of the independent MPs are originally NDP members, the party occupies nearly 90 percent of the seats in the People's Assembly, a rare majority in any country 's legislative body.

A single-polarized political structure dominated by the ruling party is consolidated in the most populous Arab country. And the overwhelming majority ensures that the NDP will maintain its absolute legislative power in the next five years, including any amendment of the constitution and other law making movement.

PRESIDENCY IN 2011

Analysts believe one of the main reasons behind NDP's sweeping win and strengthened control over the parliament is the more important presidential election in 2011.

President Hosni Mubarak, 82, hasn't announced whether he will seek a sixth term or step down. However, the tension in the Egyptian streets amounts from their concern about who will become their next president, especially after Mubarak received a gall bladder operation in March.

Top NDP officials said NDP members unanimously agreed to support Mubarak if he decided to run. If he does not, the most common view is that his politician son Gamal will inherit the presidency.

"It won't be different whether it's Mubarak or his son, most probably one of them will be running," said Abdullah El Ash'al, former Vice Foreign Minister of Egypt and professor of the American University in Cairo. In both cases, the ruling party will still remain in power, said El Ash'al.

Regarding the parliamentary election as an indicator to the presidential vote, the NDP vowed to get a solid victory over the parliamentary seats to minimize any political uncertainty since variables on power inheritance still exist within the party one year before the presidential election.

As analysts believe, Egypt's parliament, although a rubber stamp of the government, has an important role to play in organizing the presidential election and supporting possible candidates. "The victory of the NDP in the parliamentary elections means that whoever will stand for the NDP in the next presidential election will face no challenges," said Amr Hasehem, a researcher at the Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies.

President Mubarak delivered a keynote speech before the newly- elected People's Assembly and Shura Council on Dec. 19, in which he stressed his commitment to develop the country's economy and improve people's living standard as a major task in the future. It was a signal for many that he will run for the presidential election.

WEAK OPPOSITION CHALLENGE

Egypt's opposition parties and groups agree that having one party ruling all the time will lead to no where except for more corruption and greater depression of Egyptian people. However, they suffered a long-term squeeze and marginalization from the ruling party and cannot pose real challenge to the latter.

The Muslim Brotherhood, the only opposition group with profound grassroots foundation, paid a heave cost for its astonishing success in 2005 and was pushed out of Egypt's political arena in the next five years, since the ruling party cannot tolerate the parliament becoming a platform of dissent ahead of the presidential election.

Brotherhood got one fifth of the seats and became the largest opposition group in 2005. While in the 2010 election, the Brotherhood didn't win even a single seat after it decided to boycott the run-off election in protest against "vote rigging." None of the liberal opposition party won the expected number of seats as well.

The NDP argued its victory was based on an overall election platform and a well-planned political, legal and media campaign, while the opposition is left protesting over what they call bogus elections that produced an illegitimate parliament.

In 2010, a sprint of hope was revived for opposition forces when Mohammed ElBaradei, former chief of UN atomic watchdog, returned to Egypt and launched a campaign for political change.

But his campaign has seen little substantive influence on the public facing a powerful ruling party. His appeal for boycotting the parliamentary election was also declined by major opposition powers. ElBaradei's voice was heard again after the election, calling on opposition groups to unite and boycott the upcoming presidential election.

Former opposition parliament members swore themselves to an alternative parliament in mid-December, a step to which political analysts believe will only be effective if they are organized enough.

"There will be no change, as long as the current circumstances are recurring and only one party ruling Egypt," said Hasehem, adding "the most important thing for them is to be organized."

The United States, the most important ally of Egypt, expressed its disappointment over the outcome of the parliamentary election. However, both Egyptian and U.S. analysts explained the U.S. will have to accept current scenario taking place in Egypt to protect their ties and ensure Egypt's role in facilitating the Middle East peace talks.

"I believe something that the U.S. wants is to keep Egypt undemocratic in order to protect the peace treaty with Israel," said El Ash'al.

Political stability is important for Egypt's development, but for some analysts, leaving no room for opposition may not only close the door to peaceful change and lead to the reappearance of violence, protests and extremism, but also question the legitimacy of the 2011 presidential elections.

"The electoral slaughter of the opposition in such a scandalous manner will most certainly serve to revive radical political trends and violent tendencies, both in and out of the official parties and political groups, and especially among Islamists," wrote Bahey el-din Hassan, the director of Cairo Institute for Human Rights Studies in a commentary.