国际英语新闻:News Analysis: Mainstream left risks losing biggest in upcoming Dutch election

THE HAGUE, March 11 (Xinhua) -- Four days ahead of the March 15 polls to elect a new low house in the Netherlands, the mainstream left Labour Party, De Partij van de Arbeid (the PvdA), risks being the biggest loser as most polls indicate that the currently junior coalition ruling party and the second largest party in the parliament could slip to the seventh place.

"Voters are blaming the labour party for being part of a coalition which implemented an austerity program and cut heavily on social services," said Floris Vermeulen, associate professor and chair of the department of political science at the University of Amsterdam (UvA).

"The measures were not acceptable by the voters of a traditional defender of the welfare state," Vermeulen explained.

The social-democratic PvdA has been in coalition with the liberal People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) in the second cabinet led by Prime Minister Mark Rutte since the 2012 election when it won 38 seats in the 150-seat lower house.

However, most polls show that the PvdA would shrink to 12 seats in the upcoming election.

"Uncertainty and rising costs especially in the health care sector, a major issue in the current contest, have driven traditional supporters away from PvdA," explained Vermeulen.

Health care costs, tax hikes and higher pension age are among the 22-billion-euro austerity package passed by VVD-PvdA coalition government in the wake of the financial crisis. Labour's then-leader Diederik Samsom campaigned on an anti-austerity platform, leading his party to substantial gains in the 2012 elections.

"The current situation marks a sharp difference. In the previous elections, the competition for the lead was mainly between the largest right- and left-wing parties," said Paul Teule, lecturer in Political Economy at UvA.

Now the leading race is between the VVD and Geert Wilders' anti-Islam populist Party for Freedom (PVV). Lodewijk Asscher, current leader of the PvdA, lags behind among the heads of the established mainstream parties.

Asscher was expected to set the party on a new path when he was elected in December to replace Diederik Samsom, but this expectation was shared by the party's core members, not by the voters, argued Vermeulen. "They replaced their leader with a high ranking member of the coalition government which is taking the blame for unpopular measures."

Asscher is now deputy prime minister and minister of Social Affairs and Employment. "He shouldn't have challenged and stand against Samsom," PvdA voter Carla van Walsum, 66, told Xinhua. "This made me feel unhappy with the party that I have been voting for so many years."

However, she still decided to vote for her party. "Compromise is part of our political system," she argued.

Lastest polls show shifts of voters intentions as the populist PVV slip into second place while VVD taking the lead and conservative Christian Democrats Appeal (CDA), liberal and progressive D66 or the green GroenLinks registering gains.

In a debate held Sunday among eight largest parties' leaders apart from Wilders, who declined to participate, Asscher was rated only seventh with 7.4 percent in an research among viewers.

Jesse Klaver, leader of GrownLinks scored first with 17.4 percent. GroenLinks, now with four seats, is predicted to gain 15-17 seats.

"Klaver's party has attracted a number of PvdA voters in particular those with a migrant background," said Vermeulen. He saw in this shift a general trend followed by voters who abandon mainstream and established parties in favour of smaller ones which address specific concerns.

Alexander Penthold's D66, Sybrant Buma's CDA, as well as newcomers such as the pro-immigration DENK founded by two former PvdA members of parliament of Turkish origin, also take voters from PvdA, said Teule.

"Traditional left-wing voters feel frustrated with PvdA's stance towards immigration," Teule suggested. "But Asscher has a reasonable alternative which might help him win back supporters who worry about globalization and immigration."

Asscher has made the so-called "participation contract," which determines that newcomers have to register or risk a fine, a significant part of his integration policy. He also advocated an end to "unfair" competition from Eastern European migrant workers and called for restrictions on the movement of workers within the EU.

"Undecided voters will play a role in the elections outcome," said Vermeulen. But he declined to predict whether the labour will gain supporters among the 40 percent of the still undecided voters. Usually these votes are divided among the biggest parties in latest polls, he said.

Maud Schuil, who has not decided on which party to vote for, excludes voting for PvdA. "I am contemplating between D66 and VVD," she told Xinhua. The 62-year-old Rotterdammer favours liberal policies and appreciates D66's emphasis on the need for reforms in education.

The turnout, which is expected to be high, could also be critical in the final outcome, Vermeulen added, because "this election is more important than others." A total of 28 parties will join the contest, a record high number in the Dutch history.