中国仍是全球经济增长引擎

At a time when debt-ridden European countries are scrambling to stem its sweeping crisis, China is dealing with its own economic slowdown. But as a series of policy announcements indicate, the Chinese government is bringing out the big guns to shore up growth in the world’s second-largest economy.

China, the world second-largest economy and the engine of global growth, is facing headwind from outside: slower-than-expected economic growth in the first quarter of 2012.

Bert Hofman, chief economist of East Asia & Pacific Region of World Bank said, "Clearly China’s economy has been slowing down from the last couple of years. Our projection for this year is 8.2 percent. But the first quarter number is a bit lower. And the more recent numbers also show some slowdown."

Jing Ulrich, managing director of JPMorgan Chase, China, said, "In the last several months, we’re seeing China’s exports growth dropping to single-digits. China’s export to Europe have begun to drop to negative territory."

To make matters worse, Europe is the single-largest market for Chinese exports, accounting for more than 22 percent of the country’s total outbound shipments last year.

With the European debt crisis continuing to bite onto demand, experts said manufacturing and exports can no longer propel Chinese economic growth, and by extension prop up the global recovery.

But it’s not about regaining the heady GDP growth of the past decade. Analysts say China should ward against an "excessive slowdown."

Tsinghua University professor Li Daokui said, "Moderate slowing down is desirable. But excessive slowdown could be damaging to the whole economy."

And from reliance on exports to a renewed focus on domestic consumption, from prudent monetary policy to gradually easing monetary policy, and this: a flurry of stimulus policies, the likes of tax cuts, fiscal support and subsidies on energy-efficient products. China’s policymakers are moving actively to shore up growth.

Li said "There will be huge number of policies (be unveiled by the government to boost economic growth). And those are different from four years ago."

Zhu Haibin, chief China economist of JPMorgan Chase said, "In the first several month, the government has put more focus on economic restructuring. And it’s now more balanced and shift towards growth concern, so policy shift is happening. And we expect that fiscal policy will pay an active role. That means investment, government supports, tax cut, consumption stimulus, and monetary policies, including more RRR cuts. Those in all will help China’s economy to come back in the second half."

Reporter: "Experts say China’s economic growth will accelerate in the third quarter this year, as the effects of the government easing policies become evident in this July. It will allow China to remain as a strong engine for the world economic recovery."