丹麦圣诞树供不应求

A shortage of Christmas trees in Denmark, Europe's largest exporter, is driving up prices in a trend likely to last until 2012, producers said on Monday.

"Our producers got between 10 and 20 percent more for Nordmann trees this year," said Kaj Ostergaard, the head of the Danish Christmas Tree Growers Association.

The Nordmann, one of the most popular species because of the long life of its silvery needles, is selling in Copenhagen this year for 300 Danish crowns ($56) for a two-meter (six-foot six inches) specimen, 20 percent more than last year.

Denmark produced about 10 million Christmas trees this year, about 8.5 million of them earmarked for export. About half go to Germany, with Britain and France the next biggest buyers.

"The total production of Nordmann firs in Europe is about 30 million trees per year while the demand is 33 million to 35 million," Ostergaard said. "According to my calculations, demand will increase and supply will decrease until 2012."

The seeds of the shortage were sown between 1998 and 2004, when tree prices collapsed because of oversupply and some Danish growers switched to other crops.

Producers are now planting more trees, but a Nordmann needs 10 years to grow, so prices are likely to keep rising for the next three or four years before leveling out.

圣诞树生产商联盟于本周一称，由于欧洲最大的圣诞树出口国丹麦目前出现货源短缺，所以拉动了圣诞树价格的上涨，这一走势可能将持续至2012年。

丹麦圣诞树种植协会负责人Kaj Ostergaard说：“今年高加索冷杉的价格上涨了10%至20%。”

高加索冷杉以其生命力十分旺盛的银针叶而著称，是最受欢迎的圣诞树品种之一。今年高加索冷杉在哥本哈根的售价为每两米（6英尺6英寸）300丹麦克朗（56美元），比去年上涨了20%。

今年丹麦共生产了约1000万棵圣诞树，其中850万棵用于出口，其中约一半出口至德国，其次是英国和法国。

Ostergaard说：“全欧洲每年高加索冷杉的总产量约为3000万棵，而需求则在3300万至3500万棵之间。按照我的估算，这种供不应求的局面将持续至2012年。”

丹麦圣诞树供应不足的问题起源于1998年至2004年那段时期，当时由于圣诞树供给过剩以及一些树农转种其它作物，造成树价狂跌。

如今，树农们又开始重操旧业，但一棵高加索冷杉成才需要10年，所以在有新的供给补充之前，圣诞树的价格将持续上涨三四年。