罗兰德在中国城镇化报告宣讲会上的讲话

It may come as a surprise to many, but Chinese cities are not dense. Guangzhou, for example, could accommodate 4.2 million more people, had it the density of Seoul in Korea. Actually, many modern Chinese cities have dense city cores. But beyond the third ring road in Beijing, the urban sprawl begins. And that is where density efficiencies can be achieved, and where they should be achieved.
中国城市密度不大，这一点可能会令许多人吃惊。例如，广州要达到首尔的密度，还可以增加4200万人。实际上，中国许多现代化城市的中心区密度较大。但是，以北京为例，三环路以外的地区开始出现蔓延。此类蔓延区正是可以也应该提高密度效率的地区。

Smart density planning is a guiding consideration for internal city design. Think of the superblocks in Beijing, sometimes 500 meters wide. Their very existence reduces the number of traffic arteries, because they only allow for a limited amount of junctions and crossroads, thus causing widespread congestions. A finer grained network makes it much easier to manage traffic.
精明的密度规划是内城设计的指导方针。以北京的超大街区为例，其宽度有时可达500米。此类街区的存在减少了交通干道的数量，因为其只能允许设置有限的交叉路口，从而导致大范围拥堵。更细密的路网大大便于管理交通。

The density of cities is also about more space for rural and agricultural land. There is a widespread assumption that China needs around 120 million hectares for food production. If China’s cities were to continue their urban sprawl, they would need to convert rural to urban a land area the size of the Netherlands over the next 14 years. That is clearly not sustainable. It would threaten the 120 million hectares red line.
城市密度增大也意味着为农村用地和农业用地留有更大空间。有关人士普遍认为，中国需要约1.2亿公顷土地用于粮食生产。如果中国城市继续蔓延，就需要在今后14年内把相当于荷兰国土面积的农村用地转为城市用地。这样做显然不具备可持续性，还可能对1.2亿公顷的耕地红线构成威胁。

Inequality is the second challenge. That is where the issue of land reform comes in. Part of the reason for urban sprawl is that cities tend to finance their expenditures by converting rural land into urban use. In this process, cities compensate farmers at the price of agricultural land, convert it into urban land, sell it to developers at urban land prices, and take the difference to finance their expenditures. Farmers are rightly aggrieved, and their demand for better compensation has led to social tensions and manifestations. No wonder the bulk of social unrest in China occurs at the urban periphery, where these two land systems—the rural land system and the urban land system—collide.
不平等问题是第二大挑战，而这正是土地制度改革的切入点。造成城市蔓延的部分原因在于城市往往通过把农村用地转为城市用地来为其支出筹集资金。在这一过程中，城市按农业用地价格给农民补偿，把农业用地转为城市用地，再按城市用地价格把农业用地卖给开发商，把差价用于为其支出筹集资金。农民感到不满意是情有可原的，他们对提高补偿的要求导致了社会紧张和抗议。因此，中国大部分社会不稳定现象发生在城乡结合部也就不足为奇了，因为这些地区正是两种土地制度——农村土地制度和城市土地制度相互碰撞的地区。

In terms of policies in China, we propose to focus on farmers’ property rights, moving away from the dichotomy of urban land and rural land, and eventually, to a unified land system. There should be legal limits to land expropriation and eminent domain actions by local government. Fair and equitable compensation for expropriation would go a long way to redress grievances of farmers. From 1990 to 2010, local governments expropriated land at an estimated two trillion renminbi below the market value. Assuming that those 2 trillion would have generated returns similar to overall growth, farmers would have more than 5 trillion renminbi in household wealth by now.
就中国土地政策而言，我们提议把重点放在农民的土地产权之上，从城乡土地二元制度逐步转向实行统一的土地制度。应从法律上限制地方政府的征地数量和征地行为。公平公正的征地补偿对处理农民的申诉发挥巨大作用。1990年至2010年间，地方政府以低于市场价格征用的土地总金额约为人民币2万亿元。假设这2万亿元以类似于经济总增长率的幅度产生收益，则到目前为止，农户家庭财产总值将超过5万亿元。

Inequality is an issue that is hotly discussed worldwide these days, as evidenced by the global success of Thoma Piketty’s book on Capital in the 21st century. It is also an issue in China: some urban residents are registered with the city hukou, a household registration system, and have access to public services, but migrants are left out. Things have somewhat improved over the years, and many cities are striving to provide social services for those migrant workers, but access overall is still restricted. We argue in our report that the hukou system needs to be abolished over time and access to services should be based on residency, not origin.
不平等是全世界近来热议的一个问题，托马斯·皮凯蒂所著《二十一世纪的资本》一书在全球的成功发行便印证了这一点。不平等也是中国的一个问题：城市户籍居民能够获得公共服务，但外来人口却被排除在外。这些年来，情况有了一定好转，很多城市努力为农民工提供社会服务，但总体而言，服务可及性仍受到限制。我们在报告中提出，户籍制度应逐步废除，服务应按照常住地而非户籍所在地提供。

Sustainable urbanization needs to redress environmental deficiencies, air pollution and the degradation of land and water. We find that, by and large, China has good laws and regulations, comparable to those of many OECD countries. At issue is implementation, the weak capacity of environmental agencies, the single-minded myopic future on economic growth, which only now is given way to a new emphasis on the quality of growth, of life. Administrative boundaries of cities and provinces are no longer adequate enough to deal with the environmental degradation that goes beyond those boundaries. Beijing will not be able to handle air pollution on its own, since pollution there is mainly caused by the neighbouring Hebei province, for example.
可持续城镇化需要解决环境缺陷、空气污染、土地和水资源退化等问题。我们发现，中国有很好的环保法律法规，可以与许多经合组织国家的法律法规相媲美。问题在于执行不力、环保部门能力薄弱以及单纯追求经济增长的短视观念。目前，这一观念已开始让位于一种新的对增长质量和人民生活质量的强调。以往的省市行政区划已不再足以处理跨越行政区划的环境退化问题。例如，北京仅凭自身力量无法解决空气污染问题，因为主要的污染源在相邻的河北省。

How is all this going to be financed? China’s fiscal system needs comprehensive reforms. With better and stronger land rights for farmers, cities will lose revenues from land conversion. Cities need new sources of revenue. Now is the time to empower cities to find new sources of revenue, through property taxes or local surcharges on income taxes. Environmental levies, such as higher motor vehicle licence fees, pollution charges and cost recovery on utilities, will raise revenues while addressing environmental problems at the same time.
解决上述种种问题所需资金如何筹集？中国的财政制度需要进行全面改革。随着农民土地权利的完善和加强，城市将失去土地出让收入。城市需要新的收入来源。现在是赋权城市寻找新的收入来源的时候了，比如通过征收不动产税或所得税地方附加费。通过提高机动车许可证费、排污费以及公用设施成本回收费等环境税费，可以增加财政收入，同时还可以解决环境问题。

To finance long-term investments in infrastructure, there needs to be reforms of the financial system at the city level. Local government financing vehicles need to be brought in to reduce debt levels. Cities in good financial standing should also be allowed to issue their own bonds.
要为基础设施建设筹集长期投资，就要改革城市一级的财政制度。需要引入地方政府筹资工具来降低地方债务水平。应允许财政状况良好的城市发行债券。

More efficient cities will yield major savings. At the current rate and without reforms, China’s cities will spend about $5 trillion on infrastructure over the next 15 years. In a reform scenario, China’s more efficient and denser cities may save some $1.4 trillion in infrastructure investments, more than enough to finance the expansion of health, education and low-income housing to cope with the influx of people. Shifting from the physical expansion of cities and infrastructure to delivering services to China’s citizens would truly be the people-oriented urbanization that is the ambition and aspiration of the third Plenary outcome from last November. And this is what we are proposing as well.
效率更高的城市可大大节省投资。从目前趋势看，如不实行改革，中国城市今后十五年的基础设施支出将达5万亿美元。如实行改革，效率更高、密度更大的中国城市可节省基础设施投资约1.4万亿美元，足以用于扩大医疗卫生和教育服务以及保障性住房规模，从而应对人口的大量涌入。从扩大城市空间和基础设施规模转向对中国城市居民提供服务，将是真正意义上的“以人为本”的城镇化，这是去年11月召开的十八届三中全会确定的宏伟蓝图，也是我们所建议的内容。

Thank you.
谢谢各位！