托福写作:满分魔板填空法练习

　　题目结论：末句。
　　1.整体特征不一定适合于群体中的每个个体；同样，局部特征也不能表明整体特征。
　　关键判断词：your town，500 locations
　　改错模板：The argument assumes that the general trend that PLG is already popular among customers infers the trend in specific regions upon which the argument relies. Yet, the brochure fails to offer any evidence to substantiate this crucial assumption. Absent such evidence, it is just likely that PLG may not be so popular in the proposed town as it in the 500 locations; for that matter, perhaps in the mentioned region the people’s hobbies are just on the contrary, in which event the arguer’s recommendation would amount to especially poor advice.
　　2.急于概括：在证据不足的情况下作出普遍的概括
　　因果关系简单化：忽略了因果关系的复杂性：一因到多果/多因合一果
　　错误的两难处境：把复杂的问题简化为非此即彼的两种选择
　　改错模板：The recommendation depends on the assumption that no alternative means of influencing people’s concern on personal health are available. Yet no evidence is offered to substantiate this assumption. Admittedly, the last year’s sales of books, magazines and home exercise equipment are some evidence that could ensure a quick profit in some sense. However, it is entirely possible that other relevant factors might result in no profit at all. Perhaps a much quicker profit should result from investing in another program. Without considering and ruling out these and other alternative means of reducing profit, the arguer cannot confidently conclude that PLG franchise is a wise investment.
　　3.数据类问题(survey/study/poll)
　　(1) What procedure is used?
　　调查的结果是否具有代表性(representative)，是否遵循了随机性原则(the principal of random )：全体成员有同样的机会(the same opportunity)被抽到不能事先把一部分成员排除在外。
　　(2) How large was the sample?
　　抽样调查必须保证从调查对象的总体(the whole)中抽取足够大(adequate/sufficient)的样本，否则，调查的结果就缺少可信度(credibility)。
　　(3)Are the statistics misleadingly vague?
　　调查过程与结果的叙述应该使用明确的数字，如：具体的数字、比例或百分比。而不要模糊如：many, majority,以及不知道底数的百分比。
　　(4)Are the statistics complete?
　　作者只提供了部分相关数据
　　(5)Are the statistics important?
　　数据与作者试图证明的假设之间没有必然的联系
　　(6)When was the survey conducted?
　　调查的时间可能影响结果的代表性如：人们在选举前对政治新闻的兴趣可能变大，中国CCTV-5对NBA 火箭队的兴趣等
　　关键判断词：National surveys
　　(样本不具备代表性)改错模板：(1) One problem with the argument involves the cited statistics about sales of books and magazines. It is unreasonable to draw any conclusions about their sales in the future based on statistics regarding last year’s. Depending on the total number of books and magazines, it is entirely possible that those on personal health are not representative of the whole. For example, perhaps the sales regarding sports totaled more than $50 billion. If so, then the arguer’s recommendation might amount to poor advice for us.
　　(收集数据过程有误)改错模板：(2)The survey methodology might be problematic in two aspects. First, we are not informed whether the survey required that respondents choose their concern between alternatives. If it did, then the results might distort the preferences of respondents, who might very well prefer a certain one not provided in the survey. Secondly, we are not informed whether survey responses were anonymous, or even confidential. If they were not, the respondents might have provided responses that they believed those in power would approve of, regardless of whether the responses were truthful. In either event, the survey results would be unreliable for the purpose of drawing any conclusions about people’s real increasing inclination.