托福阅读：群体智慧成了陈词滥调

　　“群体的智慧”已变成了一个现代陈词滥调。它也是一种奇怪的说法——那些参加纽伦堡党代会(NurembergRallies，1923至1938年期间纳粹党一年一度的集会——译者注)的人、“雅各宾专政”(Reignof Terror)时期那些在囚车旁欢呼的人，都根本毫无判断力。

      下面我们通过双语文章了解详细双语内容：

　　许多形容词可能都适用于描述一群聚集在一起、为“亲爱的领袖”金正恩(Kim Jong Un)鼓掌或是为切尔西足球俱乐部(Chelsea FootballClub)欢呼的人，但“有判断力”绝非其中之一。任何未参加过这些活动的人都必须问自己一个问题：为何这么多和我们如此相像的人会有那样的表现?他们究竟在想什么?

　　There is considerable research on the factors that influence the behaviourof crowds. Weexperience a need to affirm group or tribal identities — a factthat is often exploited byunscrupulous or mentally unbalanced leaders. Groups ofpeople with similar opinions reinforceeach other’s positions, encouraging oneanother to adopt ever moreextreme views. The answerto the question “what werethey thinking?” is that, mostly, they were not thinking at all. That isoften thenature of social behaviour.

　　关于影响群体行为的因素，有相当多的研究。我们有确认自己群体或部落身份的现实需求，但这一点经常被不择手段或精神有问题的领导人所利用。拥有相似观点的群体成员会强化彼此的观点，促使彼此的观点更加极端化。“他们在想什么?”——这个问题的答案是：大多数时候，他们根本没有在思考。这通常就是群体行为的本质。

　　So how did the phrase “wisdom of crowds” come into being? It is anexpression of themathematical property that an average of many independentestimates of the same variablehas a lower expected error than the individualestimates themselves. That was the context ofthe example which James Suroweckiused to introduce the idea in his widely read book of thesame name, citing thedistinguished mathematician Francis Galton’s observations at an oxweighingcompetition (actually, Galton was concerned with the median rather than themeanestimate, but let that technical detail pass).