怎么样更好地作出决策

That's one message from Tom Davenport, a management professor at Babson College in Wellesley, Mass., and co-author of a book on strategy and decisions called 'Competing on Analytics: The New Science of Winning.'
这是马萨诸塞州巴布森学院(Babson College)管理学教授达文波特(Tom Davenport)的忠告之一。达文波特与人合着了探讨战略与决策的书《分析层面之竞争：赢的新科学》(Competing on Analytics: The New Science of Winning)。

He urges decision-makers to ask questions and arm themselves with as much information as possible. He suggests that current economic problems could be attributed, in part, to managers who failed to do this. He spoke with The Journal's Michael Sanserino about how to make better decisions. Here are edited excerpts of the conversation:
他敦促决策人士提出问题，并用尽可能多的信息武装自己。他建议，目前的经济问题可以部分归咎于那些没做到这点的管理者。在接受《华尔街日报》桑斯里诺(Michael Sanserino)的采访时，达文波特谈了如何更好地作决策。采访节录如下：

What are three steps that managers can take to make better decisions?
管理者可以采取哪三个步骤来更好地作决策？

One would be to clarify the decision roles. Clearly establish who the decision-makers are and who's responsible for different aspects of the decision.
第一，明确决策角色。清楚地确立谁是决策者，谁对决策的各个方面负责。

Think about what information you're using to make the decision. We have powerful information tools to make decisions, but in many cases, the information doesn't actually influence the decision as much as it might. You need to acquaint yourself with information tools that are available. In many cases it helps to have someone who can guide you through that process.
想想作决策时使用了哪些信息。我们有着强大的信息工具来作决策，不过在很多情况下，信息实际上并没有对决策造成应有的影响。你需要让自己了解可以使用的信息工具。很多情况下，向一个可以引导你完成这一过程的人征求意见，也会有所帮助。

[Also] step back and say, 'What's the best way to make this decision?' If you just immediately decide in the way that's most comfortable to you, chances are you're not going to get the best outcome.
此外，退一步想想，作出这个决策的最佳方式是什么？如果你只是马上按照自己最舒服的方式进行决策，你有可能不会获得最佳结果。

What are three decision-making mistakes?
三大决策错误是什么？

I was looking recently at when the concept of 'group think' first emerged -- where everybody in a small group tends to think the same way. That idea came up more than 50 years ago, but we can think of lots of examples where people still engage in group think. They don't arrive at a good answer as a result.
最近，我在想“群体思维”这个概念是什么时候出现的。“群体思维”指的是一个小团队中的每个人都倾向于以同样的方式思考。这个概念早在50多年前就出现了，不过我们可以想出人们仍在进行“群体思维”的很多例子。结果是，他们不会得到一个好的答案。

Another mistake would be to assume that everybody is thinking rationally. People are often irrational about decision issues in a whole variety of ways. One is they are overly influenced by any numbers that they previously heard or any statement of the problem the so-called anchoring effect.
第二种错误是，以为每个人都是理性思考的。人们常常对决策问题并不理性，表现方式各种各样。有一种是，人们受到过去听到的数据或问题陈述的影响，也就是所谓的“先入为主”。

The third problem is that people rely on intuition too much. It's easy, it's comfortable, but in general it should be the last resort, not the first. If you can't get data, if you have a lot of experience, maybe intuition is OK. But in general you want to look for the more analytical approaches than just your intuition.
第三种错误是，人们过于依赖直觉。依靠直觉作决策既简单又舒服，但是通常这应该作为最后一招，而不是第一招。如果你无法获得数据，如果你有丰富的经验，或许直觉还行得通。不过通常来讲，你应该寻求分析为主的途径，而不是仅仅依靠直觉。