投资黄金是否更加安全?

Gold so looks like the next mania.
看起来，下一轮投资狂热很有可能要在黄金市场掀起。
　　
Witness the hype. The TV commercials. The once-skeptical investors jumping on board. The booming markets in Asia, where it has always been popular. Ominous whispers that global supply has 'peaked.' And, of course, new record-setting prices.
看看那些热火朝天的情形吧。电视广告铺天盖地；曾经犹疑不决的投资者也纷纷上船；一向对黄金大为追捧的亚洲，各地市场一片繁荣；人们惊慌传言，全球黄金供应已经“见顶”了。当然，价格也在不断刷出新高。
　　
Equities had their turn. So did commodities. Why not gold?
股市反弹了，大宗商品反弹了；难道黄金就不能反弹？
　　
Hucksters on TV and AM radio are urging you to stock up on gold to protect your money against 'the ravages of inflation.' But before you rush out and follow this advice too eagerly, take a look at this chart.
电视和广播里的广告都敦促人们赶紧囤黄金，让资金免受“通胀肆虐”之灾。但在急急忙忙地要按照这种建议去采取行动之前，请看一下旁边这张图表。

It shows the financial markets' best guess of where inflation will be for the next 20 years. (The numbers are found by comparing the difference between the yield on regular 20-year government bonds and the 'real' or after-inflation yield on inflation-protected bonds).
这张图表显示的是金融市场对未来20年通胀水平的预测。（数据通过比较20年期普通国债收益率与通胀保值国债剔除通胀因素后的实际收益率的差值得出。）
　　
The first thing that stands out from the chart is the huge 'deflation' panic during the financial crisis last year. Inflation expectations collapsed as the turmoil led many people to fear a Japanese-style slump, or even a disastrous 1930s-style era when prices actually fell.
图表中最明显的是去年金融危机期间的巨大“通货紧缩”恐慌。危机让很多人担心出现一种日本式下滑，甚至是迎来一个上世纪30年代式的灾难性时代，从而物价普跌，所以当时通胀预期急剧下降。
　　
The second thing that stands out from the chart? The massive, overwhelming, extraordinary... absence of any hyperinflation panic whatsoever.
图表中另一个最明显的是什么呢？那就是没有任何恶性通胀恐慌，“大大地”没有。
　　
Right now the bond markets are predicting inflation will average about 2.4% over the next two decades. A few years ago they thought it would be closer to... 3%.
目前债券市场预期未来二十年的平均通胀率大约是2.4%；几年前的预期是接近3%。
　　
And this is not a forecast for consumer price increases over the next one, three or five years. This is the forecast for the next two decades. The year 2039 is as distant to us as we are from 1989.
而且这也不是对未来一两年或三五年消费物价增幅的预测，而是对未来二十年的预测。2039年距离现在，就像1989年一样遥远。
　　
Some years ago, when I was researching my first financial book, on sports betting, I was struck again and again by the human ability to see something that isn't there. (During the 2002 Super Bowl, fans continued to bet on the heavily favored St. Louis Rams to trounce the underdog new England Patriots well into the game - even as the Patriots were already showing the strength that would take them on to win.)
几年前开始研读第一本理财书（那本书是关于赌球）的时候，我一次又一次地为人类“无中见有”的能力感到震惊。（在2002年的超级杯 (Super Bowl)比赛中，球迷们不断以重注赌押热门球队圣路易斯公羊(St. Louis Rams)，认为这支球队将大败当时处在不利地位的新英格兰爱国者(New England Patriots)，却看不到后者已经在显现的实力。结果是新英格兰爱国者取胜。）

People will see, and bet on, what they expect to see, what they want to see, or even what they are told they are seeing, as often as they will see, and bet on, what they are actually seeing.
如果人们预计会看到什么东西，或者是想看到什么东西，甚至是别人说他们眼前有什么东西，那么他们就会真的看到这种东西，并在上面押上赌注。这跟他们看见真正看见的东西并在上面押注一样常见。
　　
In this instance it is remarkable the number of people who are 'seeing' hyperinflation down the road where none is, so far, apparent.
在这里，“看见”将来恶性通胀景象的人数量之多，令以称奇，而实际上到目前为止，未来出现恶性通胀的风险并不明显。
　　
A few important notes.
有几点值得注意。
　　
First, the inflation being forecast here is the official rate, based on the consumer price index. Conspiracy theories aside, the CPI is certainly open to challenge as an inflation measure. Some economists argue it understates the 'real' inflation figure. That's an important caveat to the data in the chart.
首先，这里所预测的通胀率是官方通胀率，是以消费者价格指数(CPI)为基础的。抛开阴谋论，CPI是不是一个准确的通胀指标，肯定是值得商榷的。一些经济学家认为，这个指标低估了“真实”的通胀水平。这是有关图表数据一个重要的注意之处。