投资黄金是否更加安全?

Second, this forecast is one embedded in bond prices. So it's merely a market forecast, not one written in stone. Obviously the bond market may have it wrong. Inflation may come in much higher than expected. Indeed that has to be a major risk, and investors need to be on guard against it.
其次，这种预期是反映在债券价格中的，所以它仅仅是一种市场预测，并非恒久不变。显然债券市场的预测可能有错，届时通胀率可能远远高于预料。这种情况确实是一个重大风险，是投资者需要加以防范的。

But before gold bugs point to the booming gold price as 'proof' that the bond market is wrong on inflation, they need -- at least intellectually -- to concede that the reverse might also be true: That it might be the gold price that is out of line, and the bond market that has it correct.
但“拜金主义者”不要急着说，金价的不断上涨是债券市场通胀预期不准确的“证据”。在下这样的结论以前，他们需要──至少是在理智上──承认，反过来说可能也是对的：可能是金价所反映的预期错了，而债券市场是对的。
　　
Third, when the federal government prints vast numbers of dollars and runs huge deficits, as it has in recent years, financial theory would argue that major inflation ought to follow in due course. I am among those who feared this outcome, and I still do. That's why I wouldn't buy regular long-term Treasury bonds, other than inflation-protected ones, because I don't think they are cheap enough to compensate for the risk. But, so far, my fears haven't been justified.
第三，当联邦政府像近几年这样印刷大量钞票、维持高额赤字的时候，金融理论会告诉我们，严重的通货膨胀该来的时候就会到来。和其他一些人一样，我也曾担心会出现这个结果，现在也还是有这种担心。因此我不会购买普通长期国债，要买也只买通胀保值国债，因为我觉得，普通国债的价格还没有便宜到足以补偿通胀风险的水平。但到目前为止，我的担心是没有根据的。
　　
There's been no inflation -- consumer prices have fallen -- and right now the bond market doesn't see any ahead. Any successful investor needs to see what's in front of them, rather than merely what they wanted or expected to see.
目前没有任何通货膨胀──消费者价格水平已经下降，债券市场也不认为将来有任何通货膨胀。投资者要获得成功，必须看到眼前真实存在的东西，而不是自己想看到、或预计会看到的东西。
　　
So if the booming gold price says anything important about the future, it isn't simply proof that inflation is about to skyrocket. There are lots of things keeping inflation low, as well. (Bijal Shah, global strategist at investment firm Icap in London, thinks U.S. inflation may be as low as 1% late next year)
所以，如果说金价的上涨确实能够预测什么重要的情况的话，那也不能简单地说，它就是通胀率将扶摇直上的证据。现在有很多因素也都在遏制通胀率的上升。（伦敦投资公司毅联汇业(ICAP)的全球策略师沙赫(Bijal Shah)认为，明年晚期美国通胀率可能最低只有1%。）
　　
And even if gold works over the very long term as a hedge against inflation, be aware that long term may be too long for you, the individual investor, anyway.
而且，即使黄金可以成为一个在非常长的时期内对冲通货膨胀的工具，也要注意到，这段时期对作为个人投资者的你来说，可能毕竟是过于漫长。
　　
Gold prices can fall for years, even decades, in real terms. Someone who bought it near the last peak, in 1979-1980, saw most of their purchasing power erode over the next 20 years. In practical terms gold was a disastrous investment.
按实际价格计算，金价的下跌可以持续几年甚至是几十年。有些人在1979-1980年上次见顶的时候买进，结果在后来的20年里，大部分购买力都蒸发不见了。实际操作起来，黄金是一个很糟糕的投资工具。
　　
Peter Bernstein, the legendary investor and financial writer who died earlier this year, observed casually in his classic 2000 book 'The Power of Gold' that 'the purchasing power of gold in terms of goods and services was many times greater in the Middle Ages than it is today.' Since publication, of course, prices have roughly quadrupled. However, in real terms, even today it has only just recovered the ground lost from typical levels seen 30 years ago, and it remains far below its momentary 1980 peak of $850. (In today's dollars that would be about $2,200 an ounce)
今年早些时候逝世的传奇投资家、金融作家伯恩斯坦(Peter Bernstein)，曾在2000年的经典著作《黄金的力量》(The Power of Gold)中不经意地提到，在中世纪，黄金用于商品和服务的购买力是今天的许多倍。这本书出版以来，金价已经翻了两番，这是大家都知道的。但按实际价格计算，也只是回到了30年前的一般水平，比1980年的峰值850美元仍然要低上好多。（按今天的币值计算，这个价格相当于每盎司2200美元。）
　　
If gold really is effective as an inflation protection, that may apply most to institutions with very long memories indeed -- like central banks, university endowments, and wronged first wives.
如果说黄金真的是一种有效的通胀保值工具的话，这倒有可能最适用于投资期限非常长的机构，像中央银行或者大学捐赠基金，还有被伤害的发妻们。
　　
Maybe gold is the next mania. If so, there is still a lot of money to be made speculating. Remember you make the most money in a bubble right at the end, and usually on the silliest stocks. A gold mania probably won't burst until we see, say, 'GoldontheMoon.com' raise $20 billion in a heavily-oversubscribed IPO.
或许黄金就是下一个狂热的投资领域。但通过投机，还是有很多钱可以挣。要知道，最赚钱的时候就是在泡沫行将终结的时候，并且通常是在最愚蠢的股票上。黄金热要破灭，可能需要等到一家交易 “月球黄金”的电子商务网站首次公开募股(IPO)严重超额认购、募集资金达200亿美元的时候。

But betting on a bubble is a very different thing from relying on a 'safe haven' from inflation.
但是，通过赌泡沫获利，跟依靠黄金规避通胀风险，完全是两码事。