NBA球员过25岁就走下坡路

勒布朗．詹姆斯下周三将年满25岁。这意味着一件事：他的职业生涯即将开始下滑。虽然詹姆斯拥有眩目的统计数据，很多分析师都认为他是当今最佳球员，但不用考虑这些。按照一项统计数据分析，詹姆斯距离走下坡路只有一周时间了。
LeBron James turns 25 next Wednesday, which means one thing: He's about to get worse. Ignore his gaudy statistics, and never mind that many analysts consider him the best player on the planet. By one statistical measure, Mr. James is just a week from being over the hill.
　　
根据南犹他大学经济学教授贝里的研究，NBA球员通常在24岁达到个人竞技的顶峰，并基本上保持这种水准直至25岁，此后他们的竞技水平会开始逐步下滑。
NBA players peak at 24 years old and basically stay at that level until they turn 25, at which point they start declining, according to a study by Dave Berri, a professor of economics at Southern Utah University.
　　
贝里研究了1977年至2008年期间的每名NBA球员。他说，统计结果显示，平均而言，如果球员每场比赛上场35分钟，那么24岁球员相当于每个赛季给球队带来6场胜利。此后，球员给球队的胜利贡献会逐渐下降，到了35岁球员则会开始影响球队的获胜场次。当然，并非每位球员都符合这一模式。今年31岁的科比．布莱恩特在24岁达到了个人的颠峰状态，当时如果他每场比赛上场35分钟，相当于一个赛季给球队带来15.5场胜利；但这个赛季布莱恩特对球队的贡献依然相差无几（14.3场胜利）。
Mr. Berri's research, which examined every player from 1977-2008, says the statistical output of the average 24-year-old is equal in value to six wins per season for his team if he plays 35 minutes a night. From then on, the average player keeps getting worse each year until age 35, at which point he begins costing his team wins. Of course, not everyone fits the mold. Kobe Bryant, 31, peaked at 24 (he was worth the equivalent of 15.5 wins a year if he played 35 minutes a game) but he's still nearly as productive this season (14.3 wins).
　　
詹姆斯似乎完美地符合这一统计模式。上个赛季，24岁的詹姆斯打了三分之二的比赛，为球队贡献了职业生涯最佳的27.7场胜利。詹姆斯今年依然表现出色，但他的贡献值下滑到了24.2场胜利。状况已经开始下滑了。
Mr. James seems to fit the statistical model perfectly. Last season, he played two-thirds of his games at 24 years old and he produced a career-best 27.7 wins. He's still great this year, but his production now equals a slightly more human 24.2 wins. The downfall has begun.