供还是不供? 美国房奴的抉择

走还是留？随着房地产市场继续低迷，越来越多的美国人都在问这个问题。
Should I stay or should I go? That is the question more Americans are asking as the housing market continues to drag.
　　
在好年景里，断供是不可想象的。但如今对于30岁的软件工程师菲格来说，这似乎是最好的选择。
In good times, it would have been unthinkable to stop paying the mortgage. But for Derek Figg, a 30-year-old software engineer, it now seems like the best option.
　
菲格两年前以34万美元的价格在凤凰城的郊区城市坦佩买了房子。他觉得自己被这套房子套住了。现在他还欠着大约31.8万的贷款，但算下来房子的市值已经跌到了23万甚至还不到。在利与弊之间痛苦地权衡后，他最近决定停止偿还贷款，虽然要还还是还得起的。
Mr. Figg felt trapped in a home he bought two years ago in the Phoenix suburb of Tempe for $340,000. He still owes about $318,000 but figures the home's value has dropped to $230,000 or less. After agonizing over the pros and cons, he decided recently to stop making loan payments, even though he can afford them.
　　
菲格打算在附近租一套公寓，每个月节省大约700美元。
Mr. Figg plans to rent an apartment nearby, saving about $700 a month.
　　
在房价大幅下跌的亚利桑那、加利福尼亚、佛罗里达和内华达州，越来越多的人都在考虑 “策略性违约”，也就是甩手不还房贷，但并非出于迫不得已，而是因为他们相信这在财务上对自己最为有利。
A growing number of people in Arizona, California, Florida and Nevada, where home prices have plunged, are considering what is known as a 'strategic default,' walking away from their mortgages not out of necessity but because they believe it is in their best financial interests.
　　
标准化的抵押贷款文件都有借款人“承诺”偿还所借款项及其利息的条款，一些人也认为，这样的承诺即使兑现起来不再容易，也还是不应该违背。
A standard mortgage-loan document reads, 'I promise to pay' the amount borrowed plus interest, and some people say that promise should remain good even if it is no longer convenient.
　　
乔治城大学商业伦理学教授布伦科特认为，能够还款──并且在贷款的性质上没有受贷款机构欺骗──的借款人负有继续还款的道义责任。他说，如果美国人都认为他们可以随便摆脱这种责任，这将给美国经济带来灾难性后果。
George Brenkert, a professor of business ethics at Georgetown University, says borrowers who can pay -- and weren't deceived by the lender about the nature of the loan -- have a moral responsibility to keep paying. It would be disastrous for the economy if Americans concluded they were free to walk away from such commitments, he says.
　　
断供并非没有风险。提供信用记录分析工具的Fair Isaac Corp.称，止赎事件会在消费者的信用记录上保留7年，可能会让信用分数（以300分到850分为基础）最多减去160分。信用分数下降后，汽车贷款和其他贷款的利率可能会高得多，信用卡发行机构也可能收取更高的利息，或者是拒绝发卡。
Walking away isn't risk-free. A foreclosure stays on a consumer's credit record for seven years and can send a credit score (based on a scale of 300 to 850) plunging by as much as 160 points, according to Fair Isaac Corp., which provides tools for analyzing credit records. A lower credit score means auto and other loans are likely to come with much higher interest rates, and credit card issuers may charge more interest or refuse to issue a card.
　
另外，很多州授予贷款机构不同程度的权限，让它们没收抵押贷款违约者的银行存款、汽车或其他资产。
In addition, many states give lenders varying degrees of scope to seize bank deposits, cars or other assets of people who default on mortgages.
　　
即便如此，西北大学金融学教授萨皮恩扎说，在止赎房产高度集中的社区，随着一个人的策略性违约鼓舞其他人也采取这种激进步骤，就会很难防止“瀑布效应”。西北大学和芝加哥大学的研究人员在一项研究中发现，高达四分之一的违约案例可能属于策略性违约。
Even so, in neighborhoods with high concentrations of foreclosures, 'it's going to be really difficult to prevent a cascade effect' as one strategic default emboldens others to take that drastic step, says Paola Sapienza, a professor of finance at Northwestern University. A study by researchers at Northwestern and the University of Chicago found that as many as one in four defaults may be strategic.
　　
这种现象背后，是陷入严重“负资产”的家庭数量越来越多，也就是所欠贷款超过了房产的当前价值。房地产信息提供商First American CoreLogic估计，有530万美国家庭的抵押贷款余额超过其房产市值的20%以上；其中220万家庭负资产比重超过50%。问题集中在亚利桑那、加利福尼亚、佛罗里达、密歇根和内华达州。
Driving this phenomenon is the rising number of households that are deeply 'under water,' owing much more than the current value of their homes. First American CoreLogic, a real-estate information company, estimates that 5.3 million U.S. households have mortgage balances at least 20% higher than their homes' value, and 2.2 million of those households are at least 50% under water. The problem is concentrated in Arizona, California, Florida, Michigan and Nevada.
　　
银行界警告，它们可能会对策略违约者采取强硬措施，通过法律途径追索他们的其他资产。摩根大通发言人凯利说，如果人们有困难，我们会努力减少他们的还款，但如果人们有能力偿还，那么我们有让他们偿还欠款的财务责任。
Banks warn they may get tough with strategic defaulters by pursuing legal claims on a borrower's other assets. 'We will try to reduce people's payments if they have a hardship,' says Thomas Kelly, a spokesman for J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. 'But we have a financial responsibility to get people to pay what they owe if they can afford it.'
　　
违约者面临的另一个风险是，银行可能会把追索权出售给催收机构和其他公司，这些公司有可能在止赎后最长20年的时间里向借款人讨债。这类威胁似乎让一些借款人犹豫了。里士满联邦储备银行最新研究发现，在抵押贷款放贷机构不能追索其他资产的情况中，相比可以追索其他资产的情况，负资产借款人的违约可能性要高出20%。
Another risk for defaulters is that banks could sell the rights to pursue claims to collection agencies or other firms, which could then dun the borrowers for up to 20 years after a foreclosure. Such threats appear to deter some borrowers. A recent study from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond found that under-water borrowers were 20% more likely to default in a state where mortgage lenders can't pursue claims on other assets than in those where they can.
　　
在凤凰城的另一个郊区城市梅萨，低房价等因素正在诱惑那些可能在其他房产上违约的买房人。德拉普在7月份用4.9万美元现金买了一套止赎房。她说，她在坦佩拥有另外一套房产，欠款31.2万美元；如果不能在未来几个月以超过这个欠款数额的价格把房子卖掉，她就将断供。
In Mesa, another suburb of Phoenix, low prices are helping to draw buyers who may walk away from other homes. Christina Delapp bought a house out of foreclosure in July for $49,000 in cash. She says she will stop paying the mortgage on another home she still owns in Tempe if she can't sell in the next few months for more than the $312,000 that she owes.
　　
德拉普已经失业18个月。她表示，买新房是她生存战略的一部分。她说，我感觉非常幸运，不管我的信用会遇到什么问题，我们毕竟已经制定了能够制定的最好避险计划。
Ms. Delapp, who has been jobless for 18 months, says that the new home is part of her survival strategy. 'I feel very fortunate,' she says. 'Regardless of what happens to my credit, we've managed to put together the best safety plan that I possibly could.'
　　
菲格说，在贷款上违约是他一生中所做过的“最艰难的决定”。他担心，如果碰上失业，他将被束缚在一套卖了都还不上贷款的房产里，到其他地方找工作的能力就会受限制：我搬到哪里都不行，不能搬出这个城市，这是一种非常局促的处境。菲格预计，搬到公寓后每个月会省下700美元。他计划把这部分钱存进自己的储蓄账户里，并说自己愿意在未来五年左右的时间里租房住。
Mr. Figg says that deciding to default on his loan was 'the toughest decision I ever made.' He worried that if he ever loses his job he would be marooned in a home that he couldn't sell for enough to pay off his loan, limiting his ability to find work in other parts of the country: 'I couldn't move up. I couldn't move down. I couldn't move out of the city. It was a very claustrophobic situation.' By moving to an apartment, Mr. Figg expects to lower his costs by about $700 a month. He plans to put that into his savings account and says he is willing to rent for the next five years or so.
　　
菲格说，贷款机构在繁荣时期接受可疑的评估结果，负有“操纵”房地产市场的罪责。他说，我掂量了所有的情况后，晚上就能安心睡觉了。
Lenders are guilty of having 'manipulated' the housing market during the boom by accepting dubious appraisals, Mr. Figg says. 'When I weighed everything,' he says, 'I was able to sleep at night.'