冷空气和说大话的微妙关系

First, I read an interview in the Financial Times with Alan Middleton, head of PA Consulting, in which he said: “I think 2010 will to some extent be a continuation of 2009.” If what he meant was that in 2010 consultants would continue to pass off drivel as wisdom, he had already proved himself right. Then I read Allan Leighton's advice to businesses for the new year. “During uncertain times, it is focused, positive and decisive leadership that is required ... Business needs to adapt to the new realities and get on with driving momentum, being proactive and looking for ways to keep edging forward. Survive and thrive.”Maybe one should forgive the two Al(l)ans for these platitudes and conclude that the problem was as much with the question as the answer. There are some things it makes sense to forecast – such as how much snow is going to fall overnight – and some things it doesn't. The weather changes; the characteristics of good businesses don't. When was the year businesses were advised to lose focus, go backwards, wither and die?
我先是阅读了英国《金融时报》对PA咨询公司主管米德尔顿的采访。他在采访中表示：“我认为在某种程度上，2010年将是2009年的延续。”如果他指的是，咨询公司在2010年将继续用废话冒充智慧，那么他已经证明了自己的观点。接着，我阅读了雷顿对各家企业的新年建言。“在不确定时期，需要的是专注、积极而果断的领导人……企业需要顺应新的现实，跟上主流趋势，先发制人，想方设法继续前进。生存下来并蓬勃发展。”或许我们应该原谅艾伦与阿兰的上述陈词滥调，并且认定，问题本身与回答一样有问题。有些事情预测起来是有意义的——比如夜间的降雪量——有些事情则毫无意义。天气在变，优秀企业的特征不变。试问企业什么时候得到过这样的建议：分散注意力、倒退，走向消亡？
　　
In search of more useful forecasts, I went to the Met Office website. Alas, there was little sign of focus here: on Wednesday morning the Tuesday forecast was still up. So I read instead the description of what its board of directors is supposed to do. “The role of our executive is to lead, direct and manage the Met Office effectively in order to ensure a successful delivery of the aims, objectives and targets ... The members ... operate as a corporately cohesive collective with a shared interest in the successful achievement of our aims ...”
为了寻找更多有用的预测，我登陆了英国气象局网站。哎呀，那上面几乎看不到一点用心做事的迹象：周二的天气预报到了周三早晨还挂在网上。我于是转而阅读了该局董事会的职责描述。“我们领导层的职责是有效地带领、指导和管理英国气象局，确保各项目的、目标和指标的成功达成……各位董事……作为一个在成功实现目标方面享有共同利益的团结一致的集体行使职权……”
　　
Its job should not to be blowing out hot air – instead it should be telling us exactly when the cold snap is going to end.
它的职责不该是吹热气，而是应该确切地告诉我们，这股冷空气到底何时结束？