美国经济复苏缓慢 就业结构发生变化

也正因为如此，经济学家预测今年年底前，失业率将从1月份的9.7%降至9.4%。他们说，美国每个月需要平均新增20万个就业岗位，才能实现就业市场的强劲复苏。
That's why the economists expect the unemployment rate to fall to 9.4% by the end of the year, down from 9.7% in January. They say job growth needs to average more than 200,000 per month for the U.S. to see a strong recovery in jobs.
　　
白宫周四公布了经济预测报告，预计今年就业人数每个月平均只增加9.5万人，平均失业率为10%。美国国家经济顾问委员会预计2010年美国国内生产总值增速约为3%，与受访经济学家的预测一致。
The White House released its economic forecast Thursday, projecting payrolls will increase by an average of just 95,000 a month this year with the unemployment rate averaging 10%. The Council of Economic Advisors expects GDP growth to be about 3% in 2010, in line with the surveyed economists.

影响就业岗位创造的不仅仅是疲弱的经济增长。经济顾问公司Decision Economics的斯奈说，企业以盈利为名，用外包或技术取代了劳动力。工资和福利让工人成本非常高，还有谁愿意雇佣工人？结果就是，除非增速比我们预计的要高一倍，否则失业的工人不会被重新雇佣回来。
It isn't just weak growth that's damping job creation. 'Companies, in the name of making money, substitute against labor through outsourcing or technology,' says Allen Sinai of Decision Economics. Wages and benefits make workers 'so expensive that who wants to hire them? As a result, the displaced workers won't be rehired unless we have double the growth rate we're expecting.'
　
不过一些企业利用衰退来寻找用更少的人实现更大利润的方法。位于佛罗里达州奥兰多的中佛罗里达大学经济学家史乃斯说，对衰退存在着达尔文进化论式的观点。他说，生存下来的企业由于有了这样的经验变得更强，他们会节约开支，寻找减少浪费的方法。
But some companies have used the recession to find ways to do more with less. 'There's a certain Darwinian angle to recession,' says economist Sean Snaith of the University of Central Florida in Orlando, Fla. 'Firms that survive are stronger for having the experience. They tighten down and look for ways to cut waste.'