中国发展过程中的两个爆炸性奇迹

I return to China’s miracle. Other than the economic system itself, I rank two developments as truly miraculous. First is the explosive growth in the Yangtze River basin that stretched all the way into the mid-west, beginning around 1993. This took place during a period which began with the collapse of the RMB, 20% inflation followed by 3% deflation, and a fall in property prices by two-third or more. Second is the explosive rise in peasant income beginning around 2000, when deflation came to an end. I estimate that, from 2000 to 2007, the per-capita income of peasants increased about 20% per year. Three out of four peasants of working age have floated to industrial and commercial employment. If this trend continues, it will take no more than ten years for the average income of peasants to catch up with the medium income group living in the cities. Trends, of course, cannot be counted on, but if the trend continues, I estimate that in twenty more years China’s economic status would amount to ten Japans。

　　回头说中国奇迹吧。那史无先例的经济制度之外，我选两个现象为奇迹之首。其一是约一九九三开始，长江三角洲出现了爆炸性的经济发展，伸延到国家的中西部去。这个现象出现的时期，开头有人民币的崩溃，有百分之二十以上的通胀，跟着是百分之三强的通缩，而房地产的价格下降了三分之二以上。其二是大约二○○○年起，通缩终结，农民的收入开始爆炸性地上升。从二○○○至二○○七，我的估计是农民的人均收入的每年增长率，高达百分之二十。工作年龄的农民，四个有三个转到工商业去了。只要这趋势继续，十年后中国农民的人均收入会与城市的中等人家打平。趋势当然不可靠，但如果真的继续，我的估计是二十年后，中国的经济实力会等于十个日本。

　　In closing, I must pay tribute to the man I once criticized. He is Zhu Ronji. As my teacher Armen Alchian often reminded me: it is results, not motivation, which measure success. The two noted miracles, which I rank above all others, both occurred during Zhu’s tenure as China’s economic navigator. Future history will not forget this man。

　　结笔之际，我要对一个我批评过的人致敬。他是朱镕基。老师艾智仁当年屡次提醒我：成功只能以效果──而不是以热情──来衡量的。上述我排列为首的两项奇迹，都出现于朱先生掌管经济的时期。将来的历史不会忘记这个人。