你知道什么是"骨牌效应"吗?

Essentially what the new law says is that labor contracts are no longer free. They must follow stringent guidelines determined by the government. Over-time pay is doubled, room-and-board provided by the employer cannot be deducted from wages, all contracts must be in writing, holidays and benefits of workers must be such and such, labor unions are encouraged, firing procedures are modified –– all for the benefits of workers, and a tenure system similar to that found in US universities is introduced: a worker will automatically be granted a contract to retirement, if he or she has been employed by the same firm for ten years.

　　基本上，新劳动合同法说，雇用劳力或员工的合约再不能自由了。这些合约要服从政府规定的严格条件。超时及假日工资加倍，雇主提供的食宿不能从工资扣除，合约要用文字写出来，员工的假期及福利要这样那样，工会受到鼓励，革职的程序改了——全部是维护劳工的利益，也引进了近于美国大学的终身雇用制：一个员工在一家机构工作了十年就不能被革职，直至退休。

Although the timing matches perfectly, I would not venture to say that China’s stock market crashed as the result of the new labor law and the serious intent to enforce it as expressed in the March Beijing meetings. As Newton remarked, only God understands the behavior of stock markets. 48 Nor would I venture to say that the sharp fall in exports during January and February 2008, notably in toys and garments, was the result of the labor law. (The snowstorms which hit the country were the worst within memory.) However, I can say that some 120 factories owned by Koreans in a town in Shandong province quietly closed during the Chinese New Year holidays, so when the workers returned they found everything shut and no one around. The new law hurts old establishments more, so that thousands of factories closed down in traditional industrial districts, with multiplier effects going down the supply chain. Workers were sacked left and right. Many restaurants in the old industrial districts went bankrupt. There were protests in the streets.

　　虽然时间刚好吻合，我不敢说中国股市的暴跌是新劳动法与北京的三月会议引起的。正如牛顿所说，只有上帝才明白股市的变动。我也不敢说二○○八年头两个月的出口急跌，尤其是玩具与成衣，是新劳动法的效应。雪灾是记忆中最严重的。可以说的是山东的一个地区，约一百二十家韩国人拥有的工厂，在春节假日中悄悄地关闭，员工假后回来见大门锁上，内里无人。该新法对旧机构的损害比新机构为甚，成千上万的在旧工业区的工厂关门，骨牌效应推到工业的后援行业去。员工被革职的无数，不少旧工业区的食肆破产。工人有联群上街的行动。