预言:下世纪气温将创历史新高

　　Nine of the fourteen scientists said that the chances of a tipping point for the high scenario were greater than 90 per cent, with only one saying that the chances were less than 50:50. At current rates of CO2 emissions, the world is on course for following the higher trajectory on global warming suggested by the IPCC.

　　这14名科学家中有9人认为，对于最严重的假想状况，出现“拐点”的概率大于90%，只有一位科学家认为这一概率低于50%。按照目前的二氧化碳排放速率，世界气候的发展进程将会符合IPCC所推测的气温较高的全球变暖曲线。

　　They asked the 14 researchers, who included such climate luminaries as Stefan Rahmstorf of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany and Tom Wigley of the US National Centre for Atmospheric Research.

　　被调查的科学家包括德国波茨坦气候影响研究所的斯特丹-拉姆斯托夫和美国国家大气研究中心的汤姆-威格利等气候研究领域的名人。

　　One question focused on the possibility of a "basic state change" to the climate system "with global consequences persisting over several decades". The scientists were asked whether they thought such a tipping point was likely within the next 200 years based on three different climate change scenarios – low, medium and high.

　　有一个问题围绕气候系统出现“基本状态改变”---“并产生持续几十年的全球性后果”的可能性。这些科学家被问及，按照气温低、中、高三种不同的气候变化假想状况，他们是否认为这样的“拐点”有可能在今后200年内出现。