关注社会:中国通胀溯源

通货膨胀已成为当下中国的首要话题之一，也几乎人人都能给出一番解释，例如货币超发、“输入性通胀”、“结构性通胀”等等。但6月10日，在青岛举办的国际金融高峰论坛上，北京大学国家发展研究院院长周其仁教授，却对中国通胀成因做了一番别有新意的解读。
Inflation has become one of the focal topics in China recently. Almost everyone has his or her own say on this issue such as excess currency issuance, “imported inflation”, “structural inflation”, etc. But in the Qingdao International Finance Forum held on June 10th, Zhou Qiren, the dean and professor of the National Development Research Institute of Peking University, made some innovative interpretations on the causes of the inflation.

周其仁认为，可通过两个角度认识通胀，一个是物价角度，一个是货币角度。物价角度观察通胀，只能看到现象，最终找不到根源和解决办法，相应地，如果以管控物价作为应对通胀的措施，最后不但不会实现效果，还会顾此失彼。他引用已故美国经济学家米尔顿?弗里德曼的话说，通胀是一种货币现象，应该从货币的角度来认识，也应通过货币的途经解决。
Zhou believes that inflation can be interpreted from two perspectives: one is price of goods, and the other currency. From the perspective of price of goods, we can only see it increasing nonstop and can barely work out the root causes and practical solutions. Accordingly, if we take price control measures to counter inflation, we may not only fail to achieve expected results, but also stir other well-ongoing plans. He quoted the late U.S. economist Milton ? Friedman’s words: Inflation is a monetary phenomenon and should be viewed not only from the perspective of the currency itself, but also from the perspective of its passing courses.

也许是因为别国经验过于遥远，周其仁直接用中国经验做例证——20世纪60年代初陈云治理通胀的历史。当时受“大跃进”影响，中国货币投放过多，陈云的解决办法是以“伊拉克蜜枣”、高档糖等商品供应市场，回收过量货币，解决通胀。“这说明，不论是什么制度，货币和物价的联系是很稳定的，这为我们今天如何处理通胀提供了思路，”周其仁说。
Perhaps because other countries’ experience is not well known to our nationals, Zhou referred to China’s experience as an illustration—the counter-inflation history by Chen Yun in the early 1960s. Impacted by the “Great Leap Forward” (A cultural and economic revolution in China), Chinese government generated hugely excess currency into the market. What Chen Yun did with the problem was to supply “Iraq dates” and high-end sugars in the market and recycled the excess currency and tackled the inflation problem. Zhou said, “This has demonstrated that no matter what system we have adopted, either capitalism or socialism, the link between currency and prices of goods is very stable, which provides us with the idea to combat inflation today.”