难以解读的节后中国经济

China's manufacturing sector had a strong January, at least according to an official survey that required extensive statistical adjustments due to last week's New Year holiday. Independent economists who conducted their own data adjustments found signs of surprising weakness.

中国制造业在1月份表现强劲——至少这是官方调查所展现的景象。由于上周的春节黄金周，该项调查需要进行大量的统计调整。同时，自主进行数据调整的一些独立经济学家表示，他们发现了出乎意料的疲软迹象。 

Amid the confusion, all could agree on one point: trying to get a clear read on the Chinese economy at the start of the year, when much of the country shuts down for a couple of weeks, is fiendishly difficult.

在一团迷茫中，各方应该会同意一点：要在年初清晰地判读中国经济是极其困难的，因为全国相当大部分产业要停工两周过年。 

This has always been the case but is particularly vexing this year. The economy may be at a turning point, requiring much more policy support to keep growth on track. Yet it could be weeks, even months, before the full extent of any slowdown becomes clear.

这个问题一直存在，但今年尤其令人头疼。中国经济也许正处于一个转折点，需要多得多的政策支持才能保持增长。可是，经济放缓的全貌可能需要数周乃至数月时间才能清晰展现。

"It is not an ideal situation,' said Wang Tao, an economist with UBS. "It affects the government as well. They ask for advice from their think-tanks and they are looking at the same set of data and may not be considering so much some of these technical, seasonal issues."

“这种局面不理想，”瑞银(UBS)经济学家汪涛表示。“这也影响到政府。他们向他们的智库征求建议，大家在研究同一组数据，也许不会过多考虑某些技术性、季节性的因素。” 

China's official purchasing managers' index, an important gauge of factory activity, rose to 50.5 in January, up from 50.3 a month earlier. In remaining above 50, the PMI pointed to an expansion in industrial output that confounded forecasts for a decline.

衡量工业活动的重要指标——中国的官方采购经理指数(PMI)在1月份升至50.5，高于前一个月的50.3。这个PMI数据仍高于50，说明工业产出仍在扩张，有关下降的预测不准确。 

The subindexes that comprise the PMI showed a sharp drop in export orders but a general increase in new orders — an indication that domestic strength was more than cushioning the impact of Europe's debt travails.

构成PMI指数的几个分类指数显示，出口订单大幅下降，但新订单总体上升，说明国内经济的强劲程度足以抵消欧债危机的冲击。 

However, Ms Wang said that her team's adjustment of the data produced the opposite result: exports were unexpectedly robust, while domestic demand was the weak link.

但汪涛表示，她的团队在对相关数据进行调整后，得出相反的结果：出口意外强劲，而国内需求才是薄弱环节。 

A separate PMI, which is sponsored by HSBC, told a similar story. The headline index was sluggish at 48.8, signalling a mild deterioration in manufacturing conditions, but export orders rose.

汇丰(HSBC)支持的另一项PMI调查展现出类似的情况。整体指数不振，为48.8，显示制造业状况小幅恶化，但出口订单上升。 

The quality of Chinese economic data has long come under suspicion, with critics alleging that it is manipulated by the government trying to cast a positive gloss on its achievements. Li Keqiang, who is widely expected to be China's next premier, said that GDP figures were "man-made" and "for reference only".

中国经济数据的质量长期受到怀疑，批评人士称，这些数据受到政府操纵，因为政府试图给自己的政绩抹金。普遍预期将出任中国下届总理的李克强曾表示，中国的国内生产总值(GDP)数据是人造的，仅供参考。