难以解读的节后中国经济

But analysts say the real problem is less manipulation and more the sheer challenge of measuring a continent-sized economy that is growing — and changing — so quickly.

但分析师们表示，真正的问题与其说是操纵，不如说是测算一个幅员辽阔、正在快速增长（和变化）的经济体所涉及的艰巨挑战。 

This challenge is particularly acute at the start of the year when businesses close and tens of millions of workers head home for the Chinese New Year. Depending on whether the week-long holiday falls in January or February, it can have a major impact on data: lavish banquets lead to a jump in food inflation that soon subsides and factory closures cause a sharp but temporary drop in industrial output.

这种挑战在年初尤其突出，每年这个时候，大批企业关门停产，数以千万计的农民工回家过年。春节假期是落在1月还是2月，可能对数据产生重大影响：节日宴请导致食品通胀跃升，但不久就会回落，同时工厂停产导致工业产出呈现急剧但短暂的下降。 

Because there were so few work days in January, statisticians had to extrapolate to produce figures for the full month, but economists suspect that they may have overestimated industrial activity in the process.

由于1月份工作日这么少，因此统计人员不得不推算得出全月的数据，但经济学家们怀疑，在此过程中他们可能过高估算了工业活动。 

"Without sufficient seasonal adjustment, PMI this January would have been downwardly distorted. However, it is also likely that seasonal adjustment was overdone," said Ting Lu, an economist with Bank of America Merrill Lynch. "Take all monthly January and February data with a grain of salt."

“若没有充足的季节调整，今年1月的PMI数据将会偏低。不过，季节调整也有可能过头，”美银美林(Bank of America Merrill Lynch)经济学家陆挺表示。“要用怀疑的眼光看待所有1月和2月的月度数据。” 

Yet waiting until March would be a feat of patience for investors looking to allocate funds. Putting policy on pause would also be a risk for the government. A range of partial indicators, from housing starts to freight volumes at ports, all point to a marked slowdown from China's 9.2 per cent growth last year.

可是，对急于配置资金的投资者来说，等待3月份公布的数据是需要极大耐心的。暂停调整政策对政府也是一个风险。从住房开工数据到港口的货运量，一系列局部指标均显示，中国经济增长较去年的9.2%有显著放缓。 

Many analysts had expected that the central bank would cut required reserves in January — a favoured tool in China for pumping cash into the financial system and propping up the economy. But it held its fire and instead adopted more cautious tactics, relying on open-market operations to inject liquidity.

许多分析师此前预期，中国央行将在1月降低银行存款准备金率——这是中国爱用的一种工具，目的是向金融体系释放现金，支持经济。但中国央行并未使出这一招，而是采用了更为审慎的战术，依靠公开市场操作来注入流动性。 

Some domestic companies, especially property developers, have warned that the economy could suffer if the government does not shift soon to a more stimulative stance.

一些国内企业（尤其是房产开发商）警告称，如果政府不很快转向一种更加保增长的姿态，经济将会出问题。

Premier Wen Jiabao sought to counter those fears this week, saying that policy can change course quickly if necessary.

中国总理温家宝本周寻求回应这些担忧，他表示，如有必要，政策可以很快转向。

"We must sharply observe and accurately judge the momentum of the domestic economy, paying utmost attention to the first signs of problems," he said at a cabinet meeting.

“要敏锐观察和准确判断国内外经济走势，高度重视苗头性、倾向性问题，”温家宝在国务院会议上表示。

译者:和风