基金经理教你股票卖出策略

Periodically - and especially when a stock is proving to be disappointing - it's important for fund managers to go back and review the assumptions that were made at the time of purchase.
基金经理定期──尤其是当一只股票被证明令人失望时──回过头重新审视购买时做出的假设是很重要的。

'The hardest thing for investment professionals to come to grips with is when they have misanalyzed a stock,' says Phil Davidson, chief investment officer for value stocks at American Century Investments in Kansas City, Mo.
密苏里州堪萨斯城（Kansas City）American Century Investments负责股票估值的首席投资长菲尔•戴维森（Phil Davidson）说，"专业投资人士最难应对的是他们错误分析了股票的时候。"

He gives an example of when that happened at his firm. His American Century Mid Cap Value began building a position in Best Buy Co. in the third quarter of 2010, with most of the buying occurring in July of that year. Purchases were primarily in the low to mid $30s. But by the second quarter of last year, the fund began to sour on the stock and started selling, initially in the low $30s. It was out of the stock by the fourth quarter, with the final selling taking place in November, when the stock was in the $26 to $27 range. For the past few months, the stock has been trading in the $17 to $20 range.
他举了个发生在他公司的例子。2010年第三季度，American Century Mid Cap Value基金开始买入百思买（Best Buy Co.）的股票，多数买入发生在当年7月。买价主要为30美元至40美元之间的中低位。但到了去年第二季度，该基金开始看跌该股票并开始卖出，初始卖价是30美元出头。到了第四季度，该基金对该股票清仓，最后一次卖出发生在11月，当时该股票的价格为26美元至27美元。在过去几个月，该股票的交易价格为17美元至20美元。

'The company had good free cash flow in a very dynamic retail world. But we underestimated the changes in the competitive landscape and how much the company would be hurt by that,' Mr. Davidson says. Best Buy's big-box stores were seen as the category killer for a while, pushing out competitors such as Circuit City Stores Inc. But Best Buy more recently has lost business to online retailers that can offer more selection and often lower prices.
戴维森说，"这家公司在瞬息万变的零售业中有良好的自由现金流。但我们低估了竞争环境的变化以及这家公司因此受到的伤害。"百思买的仓储式商店一度被视为品类杀手，它挤出了Circuit City Stores Inc.等竞争对手。但最近百思买的生意被能提供更多选择、通常还能提供更低价格的网络零售商抢走。

It may seem obvious to sell a stock that isn't meeting expectations, but the decision is more complicated than that, Mr. Davidson says, 'because we never know for sure whether it's permanent.'
戴维森说，卖出一只不符合预期的股票似乎是显而易见的决定，但这个决定比表面上要复杂。"因为我们永远无法确知它是否会永远这样。"

Think About What's Fair
考虑公允价值

In looking at stocks to buy, many investment pros estimate a fair value for the shares, based on factors including the company's earnings, the rate of revenue growth and the multiples of earnings at which the shares of companies in a particular industry are trading. Fund managers generally aim to buy at a discount to fair value, and many have selling rules linked to that fair value, which is a figure that may change over time.
在考虑买入哪些股票时，许多投资专家都会根据一系列因素估计股票的公允价值，包括公司收益、收入增长率和特定行业中公司股票的市盈率。基金经理的目的通常是以公允价值的折价购买股票，而许多基金经理秉持和该公允价值相关的卖出规则，这个价值是一个可能随时间推移而变化的数字。

For Andy Jung, co-portfolio manager for Aston/Montag & Caldwell Mid Cap Growth in Atlanta, a position becomes a candidate for trimming when the stock reaches 100% of his firm's estimate of its fair value. 'Then at 120% of our price target we have to take action in terms of reducing or in many cases eliminating the position outright,' he says. 'The upside potential at that point is not as significant as the downside potential should the fundamentals falter.'
对亚特兰大Aston/Montag & Caldwell Mid Cap Growth基金的联席投资组合经理安迪•容（Andy Jung）而言，当股票达到他的公司对其公允价值估计的100%时，这只股票就成为了被剔除的候选股。他说，"当它达到我们的价格目标的120%时，我们就必须采取行动减少头寸，在许多情况下还要剔除头寸。如果基本面衰退的话，此时上涨可能不如下跌可能那么大。"

Sometimes the selling starts before the 120% threshold, as it did this year for Aston/Montag & Caldwell's holdings of Fluor Corp.
有时，卖出行为在120%的临界值之前就开始了，正如Aston/Montag & Caldwell今年对持有的福陆公司（Fluor Corp.）股票所做的那样。

'The stock had a nice run from mid-December at $47 to February at almost $65,' Mr. Jung notes. 'Our very first purchase of the stock [was] in the summer of 2007, and we had a number of entry points. We exited the entire position on the assumption that at $65 it was fully valued and because we were concerned it didn't have the momentum given economic concerns.'
容指出，"这只股票有一轮漂亮表现，从12月中旬的47美元涨到了2月的将近65美元。我们首次购买该股票[是]在2007年夏天，而且有多个买入点。根据65美元充分体现出该股票价值的假设，我们退出了整个头寸，因为我们担心经济出现问题时它会失去动力。"

A Minimum Return
最低收益率

When buying shares, Clint Harris, a senior client portfolio manager for the Invesco Diversified Dividend fund in Houston, looks for stocks that he thinks can deliver at least a 35% total return over two years and that have upside potential that is at least three times their downside potential. When a stock he's holding realizes this upside potential, it becomes a sell candidate.
休斯敦的Invesco Diversified Dividend基金的高级客户投资组合经理克林特•哈里斯（Clint Harris）购买股票时，会寻找他认为能在两年中提供至少35%的总收益率、且上涨可能至少是下跌可能三倍的股票。当他持有的股票实现了该上涨潜力时，它就变成了卖出候选股。

Take, for example, DuPont Co., a stock the fund held since 2006 but sold in February.
杜邦公司（DuPont Co.）就是一个例子，该基金从2006年起就持有该股票，但在2月份将其卖出。

Mr. Harris and his team saw red flags when Wall Street analysts issued estimates of DuPont's earnings that were higher than the Invesco team's. 'That tells me the potential upside for the stock is a bit limited,' he says, because the company's earnings could disappoint investors who are guided by the Wall Street estimates.
当华尔街分析师发布的杜邦公司收益估计高于Invesco团队的估计时，哈里斯和他的团队看到了警告信号。他说，"这告诉我，这只股票的上涨潜力有一定限制。"因为这家公司的收益可能会让受华尔街估计数字引导的投资者失望。

And that meant the stock no longer offered the upside the fund looks for. DuPont had more than met the fund's criteria since the time of purchase, he says, but 'now it is time to move on elsewhere.'
这意味着该股票不再能提供该基金期望的上涨潜力。他说，自从购买杜邦公司股票时起，它的表现已经超过了该基金的标准，但是"现在是时候投资别的股票了。"