跨国婚姻大势所趋:德国先生娶法国太太,英美小姐嫁西班牙丈夫

The Mamma Mia factor
The rate seems to be rising fastest in Mediterranean countries: in Spain and Italy, cross-border marriages accounted for less than 5% of the total in 1995; by 2009, the share had reached 14% in Italy and 22% in Spain. Cyprus is a special case: no less than three-quarters of marriages there in 2009 were international (up from half in 1995). But that is because Venus’s birthplace has a thriving wedding-and-honeymoon market. Many couples from abroad wed there.
在地中海国家中，这个比例似乎是增长最快的：在西班牙和意大利，1995年跨国婚姻只占总数的5%，到了2009年，意大利这个比例上升到14%，而西班牙则上升到22%。塞浦路斯则是个特殊的个案：2009年至少四分之三的婚姻都是跨国组合（1995年的数字是二分之一）。其原因是诞生了维纳斯的地方也滋生了一个蓬勃发展的举行婚礼和度蜜月目的地的甜蜜市场。许多别国的情侣会在那登记结婚。
Such figures are based on wedding records. Another way of getting at the trends is census micro-data (ie, from detailed samples collected as part of the census). These have a wider coverage, are extremely precise, and go back decades, which is helpful. On the other hand, many countries do not provide them. Researchers from the Centre for Demographic Studies (Barcelona) and the Minnesota Population Centre have for the first time trawled through the censuses of more than 50 countries in every continent for people aged 25-39. In general, they find that cross-border marriages are rising in most places, but the most significant fact is the big difference between levels in rich and developing ones.
一些数据是基于婚礼记录。另一个搞清楚这个趋势的方法是靠人口普查的微观数据（即收集的部分人口普查的有具体细节的样本）。这些的覆盖面更广，非常精确，并且能得到有用的历史数据。另一方面，很多国家不提供这样的信息。位于巴塞罗那的人口研究中心以及明尼苏达州人口中心的研究员们第一次查阅了所有大洲五十多个国家的处于25到39的人口普查数据。大体上，他们发现跨国婚姻现象在很多地方都持续上升，但是最有意义的发现是发达国家和发展中国家之间的水平上的巨大差距。
In most developing countries, the share of men married to foreign women was less than 2% in 2000 (0.7% in Ghana and Bolivia; 0.2% in Colombia and the Philippines; 3.3% in South Africa). In contrast, three rich countries—America, Britain and France—account for half the total in the sample. America alone has a third. Because it is so large, though, the share of international marriage remains low: only 4.6% of Americans were married to a foreigner in 2010, up from 2.4% in 1970.
在大多数发展中国家，2000年时，本国男子与外国籍女子结婚的概率还低于2%（加纳0.7%；玻利维亚0.7;哥伦比亚0.2%；菲律宾0.2%;南非0.2%）。对比之下，三个发达国家—美国、英国、法国，样本中一半的跨国婚姻都来自于这三个国家。仅美国就占据样本中的三分之一。但是人口太多的原因，致使跨国婚姻的比例仍然很低：2010只有4.6%的美国人选择了跨国婚姻，1970年这个数据是2.4%。
Albert Esteve of the Autonomous University of Barcelona reckons that the total number of cross-border marriages among 25-39-year-olds in his sample was about 12m in 2000. The sample excludes several countries with large numbers of such unions—Japan, Taiwan, Australia and Canada—so the grand total is certainly higher, probably 15m, possibly more. Compared with the very roughly 500m marriages within that age group round the world, 15m may not seem like much. But it is more than it used to be and, in some countries—senders and recipients of foreign spouses alike—the growth in cross-border marriages is having a significant social impact.
巴塞罗那自治大学的Albert Esteve认为在他选择的样本中25到39的跨国婚姻的总数2000年大约是一千二百万。这个样本除去了日本、台湾、澳大利亚、加拿大的庞大数据，那么真正的总数必然更高，也许有一千五百万，更多也有可能。与这个世界上该年龄组五亿的夫妇相比，一千五百万似乎并不多。但是比以前多了很多，并且在一些国家婚嫁往来的增多正在深刻影响着社会。
Everywhere, cross-border marriage rises with migration, but more slowly. According to Mr Esteve’s figures, the correlation is roughly one international marriage for every two new migrants. That would seem to mean that half of new migrants are marrying into their host society and the other half (presumably) into their own communities. So a surge in immigration usually leads to only a more modest rise in cross-border marriages; the process is slower and more complex.
每时每处，跨国婚姻都随着移民的增加而增加，但是比移民增长速度慢。根据Esteve先生的数据，这之间的关联大约是每两个新移民中有一个会选择跨国婚姻。这似乎意味着一半的新移民都融入了所在移民国，另一半留在了自己的原来的集体中。所以移民潮通常导致的只是跨国婚姻的更平稳的增长；这个融入的进程更慢也更复杂。
Research into four European countries by Suzana Koelet of the Free University of Brussels and others confirms that international marriages have not risen as much as one might have expected in Europe. On her calculations, rates of marriages with a person from another European Union country have been flat in Belgium and the Netherlands since 2000 and shown only a modest rise in Spain. Marriage rates between Swiss and EU citizens have also not budged. True, marriages with foreigners have increased sharply in Spain—but that was because of a spurt of marriages with non-EU citizens: Spain had huge immigration flows from Latin America during the 1990s and 2000s. By implication, the closer integration that the EU is supposed to be bringing about seems to be having no discernible impact on the marriage choices of Dutch, Belgian and Spanish citizens.
布鲁塞尔自由大学的Suzana Koelet等人对欧洲四国的研究结果证实国际婚姻在欧洲的发展状况并不是大家想象中的一夜暴涨，朝夕之间增长至此。根据她其他的计算结果，在比利时和荷兰，婚姻中一方来自欧盟其他成员国的增长情况并不景气，而在西班牙只呈现小幅整张。瑞士人和欧盟公民的结婚几率也并未改变。在西班牙，跨国婚姻虽然大幅增长，但是却不是欧盟成员国公民的功劳：上世纪末和这个世纪初，1990到2010年间，规模浩大的的拉美移民潮涌入西班牙。这才是真正的原因。这意味着，加入欧盟而带来的进一步社会融合似乎对荷兰、比利时和西班牙的婚姻选择没有明显的影响。
Why not? For part of the explanation, Ms Koelet points to the intriguing marriage patterns of the Swiss. The country has one of the highest rates of international marriage in the world (surpassed only by Liechtenstein, Luxembourg and Cyprus). But the Swiss “marry out” in particular ways. The German-speaking Swiss marry largely neighbouring Germans; the Francophone Swiss marry the French; Italian-speakers marry Italians.It is the same with Belgians: Flemish-speakers tend to marry Dutch partners, Walloons marry French people. Language, it appears, remains a persistent barrier to international marriage in Europe and the spread of English as a second language does not seem to have changed that.
到底是卫生什么呢？Ms Koelet做出了部分解释，指出瑞士的婚姻模式的特别之处。瑞士是世界上跨国婚姻率最高的国家之一（只低于列支敦士登、卢森堡、塞浦路斯）。但是这高的跨国婚姻率的原因却特别。说德语的瑞士人大部分和邻近的德国人结婚，说法语的瑞士人和法国人结婚说意大利语的和意大利人结婚。比利时的情况亦然：说弗林明语（荷兰方言的一种）的和荷兰人结婚，Walloons marry French people.在欧洲，语言似乎永远都是跨国婚姻的障碍，即使将英语作为第二语言传播，也没有改变这个现状。
Asia is different. In Europe and America, marriage tends to follow migration. In Asia, people marry to migrate. Marriages in South Korea, for example, are often arranged by a broker in an unromantic process that takes two or three days and costs the Korean groom $20,000-30,000. Similarly, Taiwan has many marriages between its male citizens and Vietnamese women. The growth began when Taiwanese companies started investing in Vietnam
异于欧洲和美洲，欧美地区的跨国婚姻是伴随移民而生，而亚洲，人们确是为了移民而选择跨国婚姻。拿韩国举例，婚姻经常由一个中间人导演，在两三天的时间内结束，新郎花费两三万美元，毫无爱情相遇这些浪漫的过程。无独有偶，在台湾，男子和越南女子的婚姻也是这样。这个增长始于台湾企业开始在越南投资。
Local men in such countries, Mr Jones argues from Singapore, look for foreign brides for two reasons. First because of the so-called “marriage strike” affecting some East Asian societies. In the richer countries of East and South-East Asia, like Japan, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan, a third or more of local women are not marrying; and those who do wed late, at 31 or 32. This is causing some men to look to foreign shores for potential mates. The other reason—specific to a few Asian societies—is because a combination of traditional preference for sons and the availability of sex-selective abortion skewed the sex ratio at birth 20 years ago, leaving too few native-born women now. South Korea is an example. In 1990, it had 117 boys born for every 100 girls. Men are looking abroad to plug the gap in their local marriage market.
Mr Jones说，证据表明在这样的国家和地区，当地的男子娶外地的新娘，出于两个原因。首先是因为我们称之为“新娘罢工”的现象袭击着东亚社会。东亚和东南亚的富裕国家和地区，例如日本、新加坡、韩国、台湾，当地三分之一以上的适婚年龄的女子不结婚，或晚结婚31岁或32岁。这就导致了一些男士将目光投向海外，寻找合适的可能的伴侣。另一个原因是，在个别少数亚洲的国家，传统上的重男轻女加之20年前，无限制的人工选择性流产导致的出生性别比率倾斜而致使现在本国婚育年龄女子太少。例如韩国，1990年时，出生时男女比例为117比100.为了堵当地婚姻市场的窟窿，男人们只能转向海外。
For their part, the young women, often from poor areas of China and Vietnam, are looking for economic opportunities. Marriage with a man from a richer country is seen as a means of advancement and a way of helping their families at home. In Asia, it seems, cross-border unions are products of distorted local marriage markets; in Europe, they are results of gaps in labour markets that encourage migration. In both parts of the world, diasporas play a role: as immigrants settle down they encourage friends and family from back home to follow in their footsteps.
站在那些年轻女子的角度，她们多数来自中国和越南的贫困地区，到富裕的地区寻找财富。她们把和当地的男子结婚视为自身发展的一种方式，帮助家乡亲人的一种方式。这样看来，跨国婚姻在亚洲是当地不平衡的婚姻市场的产物，而在欧洲则源于劳动力市场的短缺而发展壮大的移民潮。在这两大地区亚洲和欧美，大规模的移民潮都起着一定作用：一些已经定居的移民鼓励着朋友和亲人跟随他们的脚步，离开家乡去远方。