为什么人们倾向于仇恨乐观主义者

The problem is that in a country of 300million people, let alone a world of 7 billion, any statement about an economicor societal trend is likely to differ from the actual experience of a greatmany people. While there may be upsides to the changing mechanisms of oureconomic system, there are unequivocally winners and losers and many shadesbetween. Any suggestion that the struggles of one group may be juxtaposedagainst, though not offset by, the flourishing of another group can seemdisrespectful and even indifferent to the challenges faced by many people.
问题是，在一个3亿人口的国家中，更别提全世界的70亿了，任何对经济和社会趋势所进行的预测都很可能与很多人的实际经验存在反差。虽然经济系统的改变存在好的一面，但是肯定有输家和赢家，还有介于这两者之间的人。一些人的富有与另一些人的贫穷尽管没法抵消，但是可以并行存在，持这种看法的人会被人认为是不敬的和冷漠的。

The answer, however, is not to focusrelentlessly on what isn’t working. Every society must find some balancebetween addressing real shortcomings and building on real strengths. The UnitedStates in particular oscillates between excessive self-congratulation (“theindispensable nation,” “the freest nation on Earth”) and extremeself-criticism. We can be making a transition from a manufacturing economy toan idea economy that sees millions finding a new way, and millions suffering.We can be educating millions brilliantly while failing to educate millions atall. We can see thriving urban centers even as suburban sprawl melts under toomuch debt and overpriced homes.
然而，问题的答案并不在于总是关注不好的一面。任何一个社会都得在解决实际缺陷和建立实际优势之间取得平衡。尤其是美国，在过度的沾沾自喜（“不可或缺的国家，”“世界上最自由的国家“）和极端自我批评之间摇摆不定。我们可以做出转变，把美国从一个制造业经济转变成理念经济，从而使有些人找到了新的生活方式，而另外一些人遭受痛苦。我们可以对一些人进行成功的教育，而使另外一些人在教育上失败。我们可以建立起繁荣的都市中心，而与此同时，郊区负债累累、房价高昂。

Optimism, as the theoretical physicistDavid Deutsch so brilliantly describes in The Beginnings of Infinity,doesn’t mean surety about good future outcomes. Optimism is simply thecertainty that any human progress to date has been a product of our collectiveability to understand how things work and to craft solutions. The convictionthat the present is a prelude to a bad future negates that collective ability.Yes, we may indeed be at the end of the line, but by angrily dismissingoptimistic arguments we are likely to fail more rapidly. Why bother strivingfor constructive change if you firmly reject the possibility? That leaves onlyone viable alternative: to envision a path forward. That path may notmaterialize, but striving to find it is a vital component of creating thefuture we dream about, and not the one that we fear.
正如理论物理学家DavidDeutsch在《无限的开端》中所生动描述的，乐观主义并不是对未来美好结果的保证。乐观主义是对我们人类迄今为止所取得的成就是我们集体思考和能力的产物的观念的肯定。而如果你消极悲观的话，那么你就是在否定这种集体智慧和能力。是的，或许我们已经到达了极限，但是如果我们以愤怒的态度来拒绝乐观的言论，那么我们可能会失败得更快。如果你对未来完全没有信心，那进行结构性的改变又有什么意义？所以我们只有一个选择：想象出一条前进的道路。这条道路或许无法实现，但是只有努力探索我们才可能创造出我们想要的未来，而不是我们害怕的未来。