2014年七大不靠谱的商业预测

眼看一年又要过去了，在总结2013年的同时还有更多人在计划着2014、预测着2014。关于2014年的商业社会里会有哪些值得注意的新动向？本文作者提出了自己的看法。

Whenever I talk to people about the future, I'm struck by their belief that it is knowable. The impression I get is that most people imagine the future like a book ending: already written and readable if you can just steal a quick look at the last few pages. What they find difficult is accepting that the pages aren't written yet. The future hasn't happened, hasn't even been planned--and cannot be known because it doesn't exist.
每次我跟人说起“未来”，我都被他们对“未来是可知”的这一想法吓到。我的印象就是，大部分人都想象未来像书本一样，有一个结局：已经写好了、也可以读取。你只要快速地窥一眼这本书的最后几页就能知道。他们很难接受这最后几页根本没有写完。未来还没有发生、也没有计划好——也无法预知，因为它们还根本不存在。

So I don't know what will happen in 2014--and neither does anyone else. What I imagine, though, looks like this:
所以我不知道2014会发生什么——谁也不知道。但在我的想象中，它会是这样的：

1. Technausea. 
科技厌恶症。

Today's and tomorrow's technology sits on top of multiple layers, every one of which is changing and has to inter-operate with others. This makes our gadgets, the internet of things, phones and laptops unstable. And it makes consumers irritated. How many of your apps actually work--and actually make life easier, faster or more fun? I'd expect to see consumer cynicism grow, as delight is overtaken by disappointment. This will put pressure on hardware and software developers to deliver that most boring of qualities: reliability.
现今和未来的科技都基于多重技术，而每一种技术都在发生着改变、并和其他技术交互。这让我们的科技产品，像是互联网的东西、电话、笔记本等等变得不稳定，这同时也让消费者感到厌恶。就说说你们手机里的应用，有多少你是真正在用的？又有多少真正能让你的生活变简单、变快捷、变得更有趣？我认为消费者对此的嘲讽情绪会上升，科技带给他们的愉悦感会被失望所取代。这会给硬件和软件的开发者造成压力，从而让他们追求最无趣的产品品质：稳定性。

2. Mobile overtakes the web.
移动端取代网页端。

Most technology developers are seeing app use grow and web use decline. That means companies have to have strong, fast, meaningful mobile platforms and those that don't lose customers.
大部分的科技从业人员都认为移动应用会发展、而电脑应用会减弱。这意味着企业都需要强劲、快捷和实用的移动平台，不重视这点的企业必然会失去消费者。

3. Tablets meet viruses.
平板电脑的病毒出现。

As PC use declines, infecting them with viruses just won't be as much fun any more. I'd expect to see malware, worms and viruses jump onto tablets and phones. As a consequence, we will all have to start protecting our devices more assiduously.
随着PC端的消亡，再用病毒攻击他们就没那么有趣了。我认为恶意软件、蠕虫病毒和其他病毒都会很快入侵平板和手机。结果就是，我们要更卖力地保护自己的设备。