抗击债务 美国为什么比欧洲做得好

Throughout the U.S. recovery we've seen economic data bounce in peaked highs and lows. Real GDP growth since the financial crisis has been as high as nearly 5% year over year and as low as 0%. I expect the sluggish and volatile recovery to continue for years to come. Why? In one word: deleveraging.
美国经济的整个复苏过程中，我们看着经济数据不断地创下新高或者新低。全球金融危机以来，美国实际GDP同比增长率最高接近5%，最低为零。我认为，今后几年美国经济仍将缓慢复苏，震荡前行。原因何在？四个字：去杠杆化。

The U.S. economy has been going through a deleveraging not seen since the Great Depression. Back then, total debt reached 300% of GDP. It continued to drop over the next two decades to 150% of GDP before rising again in the early 1950s.
目前美国经济中的去杠杆化规模为大萧条以来所未见。大萧条期间，美国的总债务是GDP的300%。在接下来的20年里，这个数字曾一路下探到150%，随后在20世纪50年代初才开始再次上升。

The deleveraging of the Great Depression was accomplished thanks to a combination of household austerity, inflation, and government stimulus. Household austerity occurred thanks to elevated savings rates along with pay-downs and defaults on debt during the 1930s while rationing to support the war effort had similar effects in the 1940s. Additionally, breaking away from the gold standard helped raise prices and therefore reduced the real value of America's debt. Lastly, the government spending from various New Deal schemes to the vast mobilization during WWII contributed to keeping total GDP growth positive.
大萧条期间，和去杠杆化相伴的是居民压缩开支，通货膨胀和政府的刺激措施。居民支出下降的原因是储蓄率上升以及20世纪30年代人们只能部分偿还债务或者逃债，战时配给制则在20世纪40年产生了同样的影响。此外，废除金本位制有助于提高物价，进而降低了美国债务的实际价值。最后，罗斯福新政的各项措施和二战期间的大规模动员带来了政府支出，为保持GDP总量正增长做出了贡献。

The deleveraging that we are going through today is much improved from the volatile economic outcomes experienced during the Depression. Most of the deleveraging since the Great Recession has occurred in households, mostly in the form of mortgages (which fell from 73% of GDP in 2008 to 55% of GDP today), and across the U.S. financial (where debtfell from 118% of GDP in 2008 to 82% of GDP today).
现在我们所经历的去杠杆化远好于大萧条时期经济的剧烈波动。大萧条以来，大多数去杠杆化都发生在个人领域，而且以按揭贷款（它占美国GDP的比例从2008年的73%降到了目前的55%）为主；整个美国金融业也在去杠杆化（金融业债务占美国GDP 的比例从2008年的118%降到了现在的82%）。

Conversely, the federal government leveraged up (with debts rising from 72% of GDP in 2008 to 102% of GDP today) to offset this decline in borrowing from households and the financial sector. The other major sources of debt (non-financial corporate, state & local government, consumer credit, and foreign borrowing) have remained largely unchanged from crisis levels. So overall, the decline in debt-to-GDP has been relatively muted so far, falling from 409% of GDP in 2008 to 392% of GDP today.
与之相反，美国联邦政府通过提高负债率（其债务占美国GDP的比例从2008年的72%升至目前的102%）来抵消居民和金融业借贷的萎缩。和全球金融危机时的水平相比，其他主要债务来源（非金融公司、州政府和其他地方政府、消费信贷以及对外借款）基本上都保持不变。所以，整体而言美国债务/GDP比例到目前为止的降幅一直比较小，只是从2008年的409%降到了现在的392%。

Nonetheless, the U.S. has experienced better outcomes, especially when compared to Europe and Japan because it is keeping the combination of austerity, inflation, and defaults as balanced as possible, while keeping nominal GDP growth above the general interest rates in the economy. The fact that nominal GDP growth is greater than average interest rates is a prerequisite for a well-handled deleveraging, and it is one reason why U.S. economic performance, while choppy, has outperformed many of its industrialized peers.
不过，美国经济形势越来越好，特别是和欧洲以及日本相比，原因是美国一直尽可能地让紧缩、通胀和违约处于平衡状态，同时一直让名义GDP增长率高于经济中的普通利率。名义GDP增速高于平均利率是把握好去杠杆化进程的前提条件，也是美国经济虽起伏不定但一直好于许多同类工业化国家的原因之一。举例来说，近年来欧洲GDP增长率不断下降，但在许多时候，欧洲的基准贷款利率都处于上升状态。这就造成2008年以来，欧洲许多地区的债务/GDP比例实际上一直在持续攀升。20世纪90年代初至今，尽管日本的利率在发达国家里处于最低水平，但它的债务/GDP比例依然在不断上扬。出现这种局面的原因是，通缩造成日本的名义GDP增长率甚至赶不上已经极低的利率。