抗击债务 美国为什么比欧洲做得好

Europe, for example, has seen its GDP growth contract in recent years while in many cases the benchmark lending rates exploded higher. This has resulted in debt-to-GDP ratios actually continuing to climb since 2008 in much of the Euro area. Japan has also seen its debt-to-GDP ratios climb consistently since the early 1990s despite having the lowest interest rates in the developed world. This has occurred because deflation has kept nominal GDP growth below even their extremely low interest rates.
欧洲经济表现低迷的部分原因是货币政策和财政政策脱节。马斯特里赫特条约（Maastricht Treaty）限制了欧洲的联邦预算赤字；财政部门未能实现一体化则造成货币政策（特别是量化宽松政策）难以管理。最近欧洲方面表示，如有必要，将采取更为宽松的政策。为欧洲（和美国）的利益着想，但愿他们能言出必行。

Europe's poor economic results have occurred thanks in part to a disjointed relationship between monetary and fiscal policy. The Maastricht Treaty puts limits on federal budget deficits in Europe while the absence of a unified treasury makes monetary policy (QE policies in particular) difficult to administer. Let's hope for their sake (and ours) that they follow through with their recent statements about being more accommodative if necessary.
金融危机爆发以来，债台高筑的日本也一直在采取错误的应对政策。虽然日本拥有和美国一样（但跟欧洲不同）的货币和财政政策工具，但在20世纪90年代初，也就是日本陷入危机后的最初几年，总的来说日本政府在予以应对时缺乏紧迫感。他们采取的政策就好像日本经济是在经历一场普通的周期性衰退，其实真是大错特错。多年来，日本经济增长率一直低于平均水平。随后，“安倍经济学”——首相安倍晋三为激活日本经济而采取三管齐下的措施——可能成为日本经济的转折点。时间会告诉我们，这些大胆的政策能否让日本经济重新实现持续增长，并最终让日本的经济增速超过利率。

Japan has also gotten its policy responses incorrect following their debt build-up and financial crisis. While Japan had the same monetary and fiscal policy tools as the U.S. government (but not the Europeans), they generally lacked a sense of urgency to their policy responses in the early years after their crisis in the early 1990s. Japan's government, in error, delivered policies as if its economy was in a typical business cycle slump. After years of languishing with sub-par growth, "Abenomics," Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's three-pronged approach to jump-starting the economy, could represent a turning point for Japan's economy. Time will tell if these bold policies will restore consistent growth and ultimately push nominal GDP growth above their interest rates.
那么，我们是不是就可以完全无视经济数据呢？当然不能。我们只需要做好准备来继续迎接那些看起来不是那么糟糕或者不是那么强劲的经济数据。不要因为某个月或者某个季度经济表现较差而坐立不安。我们中的大多数人在自己的职业生涯中都越来越熟悉经济周期，但当前我们所处的环境和前者不同。虽然短期内不太可能实现高增长，但我们确信，政策也不太可能造成经济衰退。只要不出现某些外部冲击，今后几年我们就有可能继续蹒跚前行。感谢我们的决策者，特别是美联储（Federal Reserve），他们准确地找到了美国经济的毛病，而且正在尽自己的最大努力来适应当前这个去杠杆化阶段。