全球转基因种子生意为什么能稳赚不赔

GMO crops took up about 1.7 million hectares soon after they were introduced in 1996. Acreage has grown at an average clip of 10 million hectares a year, according to the International Service for the Acquisition of Agri-Biotech Applications, and are now up to 175 million hectares, with no signs of abating. And Monsanto is either leading most of these markets, or is in close competition for them.
转基因作物是1996年面世的，此后种植面积很快就达到170万公顷。据非营利组织国际农业生物技术应用服务组织（International Service for the Acquisition of Agri-biotech Applications）称，转基因作物的种植面积之后以平均每年1千万公顷的速度增加，现在总面积已高达1亿7500万公顷，而且丝毫没有缩减的迹象。在绝大多数这些市场上，孟山都要么遥遥领先，要么和其他对手势均力敌。

The upward trajectory isn’t just luck, and it isn’t just a friendly political climate in the United States (though that has surely helped). For such a big company, Monsanto is nimble, and able to turn on a dime when necessary. For instance, when profits sank during the last recession, the company quickly disinvested in its Roundup herbicide line, which was being quickly replicated by cheaper, generic versions, and shifted more focus to its core seed business, which represents about 70% of the company’s sales. Profits have bounced back in a big way, with net margins at about 30%.
能长期取得这样的增长绝不仅仅是靠运气，也不是光靠美国友好的政治氛围就够了（尽管这一点确实帮助很大）。孟山都尽管规模庞大，却很灵活，同时还能在必要的时候敏捷应变。比如，当最近碰上经济衰退利润下降时，这家公司很快减少了对农达（Roundup）除草剂的投资，迅速用更便宜的一般产品代替了它；同时，它将业务重心更多地放在核心种子业务上，而这一业务约占公司销售的70%。这家公司的利润随之大幅反弹，净利润率高达30%。

Meanwhile, the company is looking far ahead with investments in farm-productivity products such as data analytics. It purchased Climate Corp. last October for $930 million for its to boost its analytics portfolio. Farmers representing about 40 million acres in the United States (about 20% of corn and soybean acreage) are now using the company’s analytic products, about double what the company had earlier forecast.
同时，孟山都还深谋远虑，对数据分析技术这样有助于提高农场生产效率的产品进行投资。去年10月，它斥资9.3亿美元并购了Climate Corp.公司，让自己的多种分析技术产品如虎添翼。目前，美国约4千万英亩（占玉米和大豆种植总面积约20%）的农户使用这家公司的分析类产品，这个规模约为它此前预计规模的两倍。

For several years, Wall Street had been skittish about Monsanto’s prospects, in part because of the loud opposition to GMOs. No longer. Just over the past few quarters, analysts have been ratcheting up their target prices. Wells Fargo did so after the company’s first quarter results were announced. J.P. Morgan followed in April after another successful quarter. On Wednesday, Citigroup’s P.J. Juvekar called Monsanto “our favorite name in ag,” and set a price target of $125 — which was quickly surpassed in the day’s trading. (On Thursday, shares sank slightly, but were still trading just above $125.)
过去几年来，华尔街一直对孟山都的前景有点不以为然，部分原因是因为市场反对转基因作物的呼声甚高。但近几个财季，分析师却开始逐步调高孟山都的股价。这家公司公布第一财季的业绩后，富国银行（Wells Fargo）就这么做了。今年四月，这家公司宣布又成功收获一个财季后，摩根大通（J.P. Morgan）也随之跟进。上周三，花旗集团（Citigroup）的P.J.祖维卡干脆称孟山都为“我们在农业领域最钟情的名字”，同时把它的目标股价设为125美元——而当天交易价格很快就超越这个价位（上周四，孟山都的股价略有回调，但仍然高于每股125美元）。

Such sentiments are also found on the buy side. In May, Larry Robbins of the hedge fund Glenview Capital Management insisted during the Sohn Investment Conference that Monsanto’s shares — then trading at about $110 — were way undervalued. Though he complained about Monsanto “hoarding capital” with its $15.8 billion in “dry powder” (cash), he enthused about the company’s prospects. It enjoys “massive barriers to entry” and “perpetual local monopolies” thanks to farmers basically signing on with Monsanto for life. He noted that while “corn demand will double” over the next 15 or 20 years, “acres won’t,” necessitating far greater yields. “In the real world, we cannot solve world hunger on an organic basis,” Robbins said.
而在买方也同样可以看出这样高涨的情绪。就在五月，格伦维尤资本管理公司（Glenview Capital Management）的拉里o罗宾斯在佐恩投资会议（Sohn Investment Conference）上坚称，孟山都的股价——当时约为110美元——被严重低估了。尽管他对孟山都保持高达158亿美元“干粉”（现金）的“囤积资本”多有不满，但仍非常看好这家公司的前景。这家公司拥有“极高的准入门槛”，同时由于农户基本上都和它签订了终生协议，它还享有“永久性地区垄断”。他还指出，尽管未来15到20年中“玉米需求将翻倍”，但“种植面积却不会同步增加”，从而要求亩产量必须远高于现在的水平。他说：“在现实世界中，我们不可能按有机方式解决世界的饥荒问题。”

Clearly, not everybody agrees with that assessment, but Wall Street sure seems to. And so do farmers.
显然，并不是所有的人都认同这个判断，但华尔街却似乎很是赞同。农户们也是如此。