可再生能源革命挑战行业旧秩序

The program has expanded the renewables market and created huge economies of scale, with worldwide sales of solar panels doubling about every 21 months over the past decade, and prices falling roughly 20 percent with each doubling. “The Germans were not really buying power — they were buying price decline,” said Hal Harvey, who heads an energy think tank in San Francisco.
德国的这一方案帮助扩大了可再生能源市场的规模，带来了巨大的规模效应——过去10年，太阳能板的全球销量每隔21个月就会翻倍，而销量每翻倍一次，价格就会降低20%左右。“德国人投入重金，买的不是电，而是价格的下降。”旧金山一家能源智库的负责人哈尔·哈维(Hal Harvey)说。

The ripple effects drove some American panel manufacturers out of business, prompting complaints about Chinese government subsidies to the manufacturers who seized much of the market. But the decline also created an opportunity for American homeowners and for companies like Lennar.
在这种连锁反应下，美国的一些生产商被迫关门歇业，中国政府向占据了很大一部分市场份额的本国厂商发放补贴之举，引人抱怨。不过，价格的下降也为美国的屋主以及莱纳这样的公司带来了机会。

Wind power, too, has come down sharply in price in recent years, and it is now competitive with the cost of new coal-burning power plants in parts of the United States.
近年来，风电价格也大幅下降。目前，风电在成本上可以和美国部分地区新建的燃煤电厂匹敌。

A Threat to Business
企业面临的威胁

The decline in the cost of renewable power spells potential trouble for companies that generate electricity. They make a lot of their money at times of day when demand for power, and therefore power prices, are high. Solar power, even a small amount, could be especially disruptive, shaving wholesale prices during those peak periods.
可再生电力成本的下降，对电力生产企业构成了威胁。让这些企业大赚特赚的，是一天当中电力需求大、电价也随之升高的时段。而太阳能就算规模不大，也有可能给市场带来极大的冲击，把用电高峰期的趸售电价拉下来。

Though growing rapidly, solar power still accounts for less than 1 percent of American power generation, so the disruption has not yet been seen on a large scale in the United States. But some utilities, fearful of losing out as the power mix changes, have started attacking rules that encourage solar panels. Others are taking the opposite tack, jumping into the solar market themselves.
尽管光电产业发展得很快，但光电产量在美国电力总产量中所占的比重还不到1%，因此美国市场尚未受到大规模的冲击。不过，有的公用事业公司担心自己因电源结构的变化而遭受损失，已经开始攻击那些鼓励使用太阳能面板的规则了。另外一些公司则采取了相反的策略，干脆投身到了光电市场之中。

Nipping at the heels of those utilities are fast-growing start-up companies that are putting tens of thousands of panels on rooftops and leasing them to homeowners for no money down, with Wall Street banks providing the financing. The hot spot is California, which is aiming for 33 percent renewable power by 2020 and seems increasingly likely to get there.
紧随这些公用事业公司之后的，是高速成长的初创公司，它们正把数以万计的太阳能板安在人们的屋顶上，并和屋主签下无需付押金的租约，为其提供资金支持的是华尔街的银行机构。加利福尼亚州被卷入了这股热潮之中，该州计划在2020年之前把可再生能源电力上网比重提高到33%，现在看来，实现这一目标的可能性正逐步加大。

In Germany, where solar panels supply 7 percent of power and wind turbines about 10 percent, wholesale power prices have crashed during what were once the most profitable times of day. “We were late entering into the renewables market — possibly too late,” Peter Terium, chief executive of the giant utility RWE, admitted this spring as he announced a $3.8 billion annual loss.
在德国，太阳能面板和风力涡轮机的发电量分别占总发电量的7%和10%，一度最有利可图的用电高峰期的趸售电价已经大幅下降。公用事业巨头莱茵集团(RWE)的首席执行官彼得˙特里乌姆(Peter Terium)于今年春天宣布该集团亏损了38亿美元时承认：“我们进入可再生能源市场的时间有些晚——也许是太晚了。”

The big German utilities are warning — or pleading, perhaps — that the revolution cannot be allowed to go forward without them. And outside experts say they may have a point.
德国的这些大型公用事业公司提醒说——也许可以称之为恳求——这场革命要想进行下去，就得带上它们。外部专家称，他们的话或许有点道理。

The Achilles’ heel of renewable power is that it is intermittent, so German utilities have had to dial their conventional power plants up and down rapidly to compensate. The plants are not necessarily profitable when operated this way, and the utilities have been threatening to shut down facilities that some analysts say the country needs as backup.
可再生能源有一个致命的弱点，即供电的间歇性。因此，德国的公用事业公司不得不通过迅速调高或调低传统发电厂的发电量来保持供需平衡。以这种方式运营的传统发电厂未必有利可图，公用事业公司一直扬言要关闭这些电厂，但有分析人士认为德国需要用它们来应对不时之需。

The situation is further complicated by the government’s determination to get rid of Germany’s nuclear power stations over the next decade, the culmination of a long battle that reached its peak after the 2011 Fukushima disaster in Japan. As that plan unfolds, shutting down a source of low-emission power, Germany’s notable success in cutting greenhouse gases has stalled.
由于德国政府决意放弃核能，情况变得越发复杂。2011年日本福岛核泄漏事故发生后，在德国存在已久的核电站存废之争终于有了结果：该国政府宣布将用10年时间关闭国内的核电站。随着这一计划的实施，清洁电能的一个来源将被切断，德国在温室气体减排方面取得的令人瞩目的成绩已经停滞不前。

In fact, the problems with the energiewende (pronounced in-ur-GEE-vend-uh) have multiplied so rapidly in the past couple of years that the government is now trying to slow down the transition. “I think we need a little bit of time,” said Jochen Flasbarth, a deputy minister of the environment.
事实上，能源转型带来的问题在过去几年里迅速增多，以致于德国政府正竭力放缓转型的脚步。“我认为我们还需要一点点时间，”德国环境部副部长约亨·弗拉斯巴斯(Jochen Flasbarth)说。

Technological Innovation
技术创新

As renewable energy sources start to cause gyrations in power supplies and prices, experts contend that clever new market rules could keep the costs reasonable.
可再生能源开始让电力供给和价格产生波动之际，有专家认为，如果新建立的市场规则足够明智，应该可以把成本控制在合理范围内。

Some of the innovations they recommend are already in use to some extent — pioneered in the United States, with Germany avidly studying them. They include regular payments to persuade utilities to keep some fossil-fuel power plants on standby for times when renewable sources lag.
他们所推荐的一些新制度，在某种程度上已经得到了应用——这些制度是由美国率先实施的，德国正在积极研究。其中包括定期付费给公用事业公司，令其保留一些化石燃料发电厂，在可再生能源短缺时作应急之用。

“It’s like a retainer you pay your lawyer to keep her around in case you need her,” said Jay Apt, an electricity expert at Carnegie Mellon University.
“就好比你向你的律师支付聘金，以确保她在你需要的时候一定会出现，”卡内基梅隆大学(Carnegie Mellon University)的电力专家杰伊·阿普特(Jay Apt)说。

For Germans, the uNPRedictability of onshore renewable power explains the appeal of offshore wind. The stiff, steady breezes in the North Sea and the Baltic Sea mean that turbines built there will produce far more power than land turbines.
对德国人而言，由于内陆地区可再生能源电力的产量存在不可预测性，海风的吸引力便显现了出来。北海和波罗的海上空的风力强大而稳定，意味着安装在那里的涡轮机在发电量上远远高于内陆地区的涡轮机。

That is why three utilities have virtually seized control of the tiny resort island of Heligoland, renting out one hotel for 10 years straight. It is the most convenient body of land to use as an operations base for the huge wind farms they are installing, with long-range plans to go as far as 125 miles offshore.
正因为如此，三家公用事业公司差不多算是把黑尔戈兰岛给占领了，直接与这个度假小岛上的一家酒店签下了10年的租约。它们正按照长期规划建设风电场，一直要建到距海岸125英里远的地方，而黑尔戈兰岛是最适合用来做行动基地的一片陆地。

The streets of the island are thronged with well-paid workers. “Really, all areas on Heligoland are profiting,” declared Eike Walenda, the manager of a local outfitter and fueling station.
小岛的街道上挤满了待遇优厚的工人。“真的，黑尔戈兰岛每个地块都在获益，”当地一家兼售户外用品的加油站的经理艾克瓦·伦达(Eike Walenda)说。

The costs of building in the sea are far higher than on land, of course. The price tag of up to $30 million per turbine is not just for the machine itself, but also for power cables, installation and many other items. To induce utilities to go forward, the government has had to guarantee them power prices of several times the market rate.
当然了，海上风电场的建设费用远高于陆地上的费用。每台涡轮机高达3000万美元的身价不仅仅是机器本身的价格，还包含了电缆费、安装费等好多项费用。为了吸引公用事业公司参与这样的项目，德国政府不得不答应它们把电价提高到市价的好几倍。

But, just as with earlier forms of renewable technology, the Germans expect the costs of harnessing offshore wind to drop sharply as the market grows over the coming decade. If that happens, the United States could be a big beneficiary. Studies have shown that offshore wind could supply as much as 15 to 20 percent of the power needed by East Coast cities, and construction is about to start on a handful of American projects.
不过，德国人预计在未来10年里，海风发电的成本可以随着市场规模的增长而大幅下降——就像早期的那些可再生能源发电技术那样。要是成本真降下来，美国也许会成为受益者。有研究表明，海风发电可为东海岸城市供应其所需电量的15%至20%；而且美国的几个项目很快就要开工建设了。

For now, the German offshore farms are adding billions to the costs consumers are already bearing for solar panels, onshore wind turbines, biogas plants and the rest of the transition to renewable energy. Polls suggest it is a burden they are willing to carry.
德国消费者已经为太阳能板、内陆地区的风力涡轮机、沼气池，以及向可再生能源时代过渡所需的其他一切承担了高昂的成本，现在，他们又要因海风电场而多承担数十亿美元。民意调查显示，他们乐意担起这副担子。

“Indeed, the German people are paying significant money,” said Markus Steigenberger, an analyst at Agora, the think tank. “But in Germany, we can afford this — we are a rich country. It’s a gift to the world.”
“事实上，德国民众正付出高昂的代价，”能源智库阿哥拉能源转型的分析师马库斯·施泰根贝格尔(Markus Steigenberger)说，“但在德国，我们能够承担得起——我们是富裕国家。这是我们给世界的礼物。”