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私人股本行业勿乐极生悲

2017-03-14来源:和谐英语

There are few surer financial warnings than Stephen Schwarzman, co-founder of the private equity group Blackstone, throwing a big party. His 60th birthday celebration a decade ago marked the pre-crisis peak for the industry, so the 70th he held last month in Palm Beach, Florida, featuring fireworks, camels, and a cake in the shape of a Chinese temple, is worrying.
再没有比私人股本集团黑石(Blackstone)联合创始人苏世民(Stephen Schwarzman)举办的大派对更明确的金融警告了。10年前,他的60岁生日庆祝会标志着危机之前私人股本行业的顶峰,所以上个月他在弗罗里达州棕榈海滩(Palm Beach)举办的70岁生日庆祝会——有烟火、骆驼、中国寺庙形状的蛋糕——也就令人担忧了。

Private equity entered a slump after his 2007 party, with the huge debt-financed deals struck at the peak looking stupid with hindsight. Ten years later, it is doing extremely well for itself.
2007年庆祝会之后,私人股本行业进入了一段低迷期,回想起来,之前巅峰时期靠着巨额债务融资达成的交易看起来很愚蠢。10年后,这个行业本身过得很不错。

私人股本行业勿乐极生悲

As hedge funds stumble and public stock markets are increasingly dominated by passive index funds, veterans such as Mr Schwarzman and Leon Black of Apollo are masters of thei universe.
如今对冲基金步履蹒跚,公共股票市场日益由被动指数基金主导,目前苏世民和Apollo的里昂?布莱克(Leon Black)等老手俨然成了“宇宙主宰”。

It is a safe bet that this will not last, since it never has before. The global industry gathers every year at a conference called SuperReturn, held in Berlin this week.
我们可以放心地押注这一局面将不会持续下去,因为以前也从来没有过。全球私人股本行业的人士每年都会聚集在一起,举行“超级回报”(Super Return)大会。上周,今年的会议在柏林举行。

The name is not always merited but this year’s resembles a crowded party that could erupt at any moment. Cocky financiers in expensive suits, intoxicated by cheap credit and high dividends? Run for the exits.
超级回报并非总是理所当然的,但今年的聚会就像是一个拥挤的派对,可能随时挤爆。身着华服、趾高气昂的金融家们,在廉价信贷和高股息中陶醉?跑向出口吧。

Even this was bearable until Mr Black took to the SuperReturn stage on Monday to declare that, although a correction was probably imminent, it could be postponed by Donald Trump’s pledge of a “revved up” US economy.
甚至这也是可以忍受的,直到布莱克登上超级回报大会的舞台宣布,尽管一场调整很可能迫在眉睫,但唐纳德?特朗普(Donald Trump)有关“振兴”美国经济的承诺,可能会延缓这场调整。

That could unleash a further three years of “turbocharged” growth for leveraged buyouts backed by the $820bn of capital yet to be invested. Then I really got nervous.
这可能为杠杆收购带来又三年的“涡轮增压”增长——在尚待投入的8200亿美元支持下。那么,我真的紧张了。

Private equity’s problem is not that it is suffering but the opposite: it has recovered so fully that it is flush with money. As it sells the businesses it bought a few years ago, many at a high profit, and returns cash to the pension funds and institutions that invest through it, more is arriving. This is a very good period to be selling assets but a hard one to find a bargain.
私人股本行业的问题,不是它处于煎熬之中,而是相反:它已经彻底复苏了,资金非常充沛。由于卖掉了几年前收购的企业(许多情况下是以高利润卖出),并把资金返还给通过它们进行投资的养老基金和机构,更多资金正在到来。现在是出售资产的好时期,却是物色便宜资产的困难时期。

The industry should still have advantages even in these heady times. Compared with hedge funds, which also charge stiff fees to invest other people’s money, it has performed well.
即使在这些头脑过热的时代,私人股本行业也应当仍有优势。与同样收取高昂费用帮人投资的对冲基金相比,私人股本公司的表现很不错。

Warren Buffett wrote harshly of hedge fund managers in his annual letter to Berkshire Hathaway investors, but has partnered with 3G Capital, the Brazilian-led private equity firm.
在每年一度写给伯克希尔哈撒韦公司(Berkshire Hathaway)投资者的信中,沃伦?巴菲特(Warren Buffett)严厉地批评了对冲基金经理,但与巴西私人股本公司3G资本(3G Capital)站到了同一阵营。

The classic private equity deal is to borrow money to buy a medium-sized company that is in decent shape but has potential to grow or become more efficient. A fund often puts in new managers, allocating them a hefty incentive to improve the business — private equity chief executives get an average 8 per cent stake, according to one study. It then sells at a higher price five years later.
经典的私人股本交易,是借钱购买一个中等规模、经营状况不错、有扩大规模或提高效率的潜力的企业。私人股本基金通常安排新的高管进入企业,并为他们提供改善业绩的重大激励——一项研究显示,私人股本基金的首席执行官平均取得被投资企业8%的股权。5年后,基金以更高价格把企业卖掉。

Having the luxury of privacy and time — not having to worry about quarterly results or investors demanding their money back — helps investments thrive.
在隐私和时间方面拥有难得的优势——不必担心季度业绩或投资者要求返还资金——有助于投资业绩飘红。

The industry consistently outperformed the stock market up to 2006, one study found, and its long-term performance has recovered from a post-2008 dip.
一项研究发现,私人股本行业在2006年以前一直跑赢股票市场,其长期业绩也已从2008年之后的谷底恢复。

But no matter how much leverage and ambition it injects into a company, a private equity fund cannot easily compensate for overpaying.
但是,无论私人股本基金向被投资企业注入多大杠杆和野心,收购价过高会让他们无法轻易获得补偿。

This is the pressing problem: one investor estimates that his fund must pay 15 or 20 per cent more to buy a company with stable earnings than it did two years ago.
这是当前的迫切问题:据一位投资者估算,他的基金必须支付高出两年前15%或20%的价格,才能买到一家盈利稳定的公司。

Funds prefer to find companies and take time — sometimes years — to size them up and get to know their founders or executives. The new reality is often that, as one partner describes it: “You get a book sent by Goldman Sachs, one dinner with a camera-ready executive team, and then an auction.”
私人股本基金更喜欢物色企业,然后花费时间(有时是几年)对之作出评估和了解其创始人或高管。而如今,一名基金合伙人描述道,新的现实经常是,“你得到高盛(Goldman Sachs)寄来的一本书,跟随时准备拍照的管理团队吃一顿晚餐,然后就是一场拍卖。”

They are not only competing against each other. The most enthusiastic bidders are often companies in the same industry that can obtain cost savings by integrating a smaller rival. Pension funds are also getting in on the act by co-investing with private equity funds, and sometimes investing directly.
私人股本基金不仅仅是彼此竞争。最热心的竞购者通常是同一行业的公司,通过兼并一家更小的对手可以节省成本。养老基金也参与进来,与私人股本基金共同投资,有时则是直接投资。

The obvious response to an overheated market is to slow down, and even to take a break from investing until prices fall. In theory, this should be an advantage of private equity funds — they do not have to place funds immediately, and will not benefit their investors by rushing.
在过热的市场,投资明显应该减速,甚至暂停,直到价格跌下来。在理论上,这应该是私人股本基金的优势——它们不必立即把钱投出去,仓促投资的话,将不会让自己的投资人受益。

Most are pressing ahead anyway. They believe they have a unique formula that will keep their investments safe while others overpay. They do not say, although it is true, that they only get rewarded for action. They charge a 1.5 per cent management fee on their investments.
但大多数私人股本基金仍在冒进。它们认为自己掌握着独特的公式,将保证在其他人出价过高时,自己的投资一直是安全的。它们没说出来的是——尽管是事实——它们唯有行动起来,才能获得回报。它们对自己的投资项目收取1.5%的管理费。

If you pay a lot, you need to get value somehow. The danger is that they start treating every company like a distressed asset to obtain a return, even if it was originally fine.
如果你付出了很高价格,你就需要在某些地方获得价值。危险在于,它们为了获取回报,开始把每一家公司都当作不良资产看待,即便这些公司当初很不错。

They may be pushed into acting more like 3G, which one investor calls a “brutal” cost-cutter at companies including Kraft Heinz, where it eliminated 13,000 jobs.
它们可能被迫更像3G资本那样行事——一个投资者把3G资本称为“残酷”的成本削减者,包括对卡夫亨氏(Kraft Heinz)等公司。3G资本在卡夫亨氏砍掉了1.3万个工作岗位。

The private equity industry should enjoy the party while it lasts. The fun could soon be over.
私人股本行业应在盛宴继续的时候享受盛宴。欢乐可能很快就结束了。