中国稳步迈入国际体系

A lot can happen in a month in China — or at least in its markets. In the past four weeks, its banking regulator has launched a “regulatory windstorm” while the central bank has made the first move to ease capital controls, providing much needed liquidity to the offshore renminbi market.
在中国，一个月可以发生许多事情，至少在其市场上如此。在过去4周里，中国银行业监管机构掀起了“监管风暴”，中国央行也迈出了放松资本管制的第一步，向离岸人民币市场提供亟需的流动性。

Meanwhile, BlackRock has for the first time publicly backed the inclusion of onshore stocks in MSCI’s indices, and Chinese officials have even criticised dividend-dodging companies, dubbed “iron cockerels”, and promised extra scrutiny. Some, it noted, have not paid out a penny in 20-plus years of listed existence.
与此同时，贝莱德(BlackRock)首次公开支持将中国内地股票纳入MSCI明晟的指数，而中国官员甚至对不分红的上市公司（所谓的“铁公鸡”）提出批评，承诺加强审查。监管部门指出，一些公司上市20多年来没有分过红。

With a very optimistic squint, one might read the collected actions as signs of an investor-friendly, western-style package of reforms. That would be misleading. But they do represent the ongoing process of developing China’s markets and linking them to the international system — one small tweak or reform at a time. For international investors, the easing of capital controls is the most eye-catching change, reflecting their ability to withdraw funds invested — a key concern cited last year by MSCI when it decided A-shares were not yet fit for inclusion.
从非常乐观的角度来看，人们可能将这些集体行动解读为中国将会推出对投资者友好、西方式改革方案的迹象。这样想就错了。但这些行动的确代表着中国持续发展国内市场、并与国际体系接轨的努力——每次调整或改革一点点。对国际投资者来说，放松资本管制是最吸引眼球的改变，意味着他们能够撤回投资资金——这是去年MSCI明晟在认定A股仍不符合纳入标准时援引的一个关键顾虑。

Essentially, Beijing has stepped back from a one-out one-in policy, introduced earlier this year, when outgoing cross-border payments in renminbi had to be at least matched by inflows. Given it is easier to convert renminbi offshore, the channel was an important conduit for outflows. It was also a key source of liquidity in the offshore renminbi market, centred in Hong Kong.
从根本上说，中国废止了今年早些时候推出的“一出一进”政策，当时外流的跨境人民币支付至少要和流入相当。鉴于境外更容易兑换人民币，该渠道是资本外流的重要管道。它还是以香港为核心的离岸人民币市场的流动性的关键来源。

“While regulators have no intention of stopping genuine trade, increased scrutiny of cross-border [activity] has delayed transactions,” said Nathan Chow at DBS.
星展银行(DBS)的周洪礼(Nathan Chow)表示：“尽管监管机构无意阻止真正的交易，但加大审查跨境（活动）还是导致了交易延迟。”

As of February, renminbi deposits in Hong Kong were half their Rmb1tn ($145bn) peak reached in December 2014. Renminbi payments suffered too: data showed just 16.7 per cent of China’s goods trade was settled in the currency in February, down from 24 per cent a year earlier.
截止今年2月，香港人民币存款仅为2014年12月达到的1万亿元人民币（合1450亿美元）峰值水平的一半。人民币支付也受到影响：数据显示，今年2月中国只有16.7%的商品贸易用人民币结算，而一年前的比例是24%。

“It is too early to say this is a turning point [but] we believe that this at least shows that China is still keen to push forward with renminbi internationalisation,” said Hao Zhou, strategist at Commerzbank.
德国商业银行(Commerzbank)的策略师周浩表示：“现在说这是一个转折点为时尚早，（但）我们相信，这至少表明中国仍有积极意愿推动人民币国际化。”

The stream of orders, largely from the China Banking Regulatory Commission, has taken some by surprise. While some have focused on the shadow banking sector and wealth management products, others have concentrated on the interbank market, underlining Beijing’s focus this year on deleveraging and the role that this kind of regulatory tightening can play.
主要由中国银监会(CBRC)发出的一系列文件让一些人吃了一惊。一些文件聚焦于影子银行领域和理财产品，还有一些则关注银行间市场，凸显出中国政府今年聚焦于去杠杆化以及这种监管收紧可以发挥的作用。

One move from China’s central clearing agency raised the standards for collateral permitted in exchange-traded repo transactions. This is expected to increase costs for lower rated bonds — which many analysts think is long overdue.
中国证券登记结算有限责任公司出台的新规，提高了交易所交易的债券回购的质押标准。预计这将会增加较低评级债券的成本——许多分析师认为早该如此。

The most straightforward of all the recent changes would be MSCI’s inclusion of mainland A-shares in its global indices, should it go ahead. A decision from the index provider is due in June, and BlackRock’s public support for inclusion is a powerful endorsement from the world’s largest fund manager. The importance of MSCI inclusion is not only sheer weight of money that follows its indices, although at $1.5tn for its benchmark Emerging Markets one, these are considerable. The real significance is that a decision in favour would make MSCI the first major index provider to commit directly to include mainland assets.
在最近的所有改变中，最明确的将是如果MSCI明晟同意，A股将会被纳入其全球指数。这家指数提供商定于今年6月作出决定，全球最大基金公司贝莱德公开支持纳入A股，这提供了有力背书。MSCI明晟纳入A股的重要意义不仅仅在于大量追踪其指数的资金——尽管确实有1.5万亿美元追踪其基准的新兴市场指数，这是相当大的数目。真正的意义在于，纳入A股的决定将让MSCI明晟成为首个直接承诺纳入内地资产的主要指数提供商。

Others such as rival FTSE Russell and, in the bond markets, Bloomberg have opted for a “parallel universe” approach where they maintain mainland-free indices alongside new ones to give their clients the choice. MSCI’s plan, to include only A-shares tradeable through the Stock Connect linking Hong Kong through the mainland bourses, in theory also avoids a commitment to the mainland, as investors do not need China presence to trade.
其他与MSCI明晟竞争的指数提供商，比如富时罗素(FTSE Russell)以及债券市场上的彭博(Bloomberg)，选择了“平行宇宙”做法，同时提供不纳入A股的指数与纳入A股的新指数，供客户自己选择。MSCI明晟提出的只纳入能够在内地与香港股市互联互通机制(Stock Connect)下交易的A股股票的计划，在理论上也避免了资金进入内地市场的问题，投资者不需要进入中国内地市场交易。

This is MSCI’s fourth proposal for including A-shares in as many years. Expect the usual heated debate about the state of China’s markets as its decision in June nears. Not all the issues that derailed inclusion have been addressed by any means. But still the reform process has moved ahead, however piecemeal. The past month’s tweaks and nudges add up to something that starts to looks like progress.
这是MSCI明晟这么多年来第四次提议纳入A股。距离该公司作决定的时间（6月）越来越近，料想人们将又一次像往常一样围绕中国的市场经济地位展开热议。中国并未不惜代价地解决所有阻碍A股纳入的问题。但改革确实前进了，无论步伐多么细碎。过去一个月的调整和努力汇聚在一起，让进步初具雏形。