央行超预期下调政策利率，稳增长措施再加码

 8月15日，人民银行开展4000亿元中期借贷便利（MLF）操作，中标利率下调10个基点至2.75％，7天期逆回购利率同步下调10个基点至2％，为尚需稳固的国内经济注入金融强心剂。面对尚不稳固的经济恢复基础，宏观政策仍以稳增长为主线，择机加码调控，积极对冲经济下行压力。


China's central bank delivered surprise interest rate cuts on Monday, suggesting that the country is still willing to lend more monetary support on the aggregate front in the coming months despite a potential rise in structural inflationary pressure, experts said.
专家表示，中国人民银行8月15日超预期下调政策利率，表明尽管结构性通胀压力可能上升，但在未来几个月货币政策将继续从总量上发力。


Thanks to Monday's rate cuts, the country's loan prime rates－or the market-driven benchmark lending rates－are likely to see reductions this month, helping revive corporate credit demand and mitigate a real estate slowdown, they said.
他们表示，这次降息促使中国最优惠贷款利率（由市场驱动的基准贷款利率）本月可能会下降，这有助于恢复企业信贷需求，支持房地产市场回暖。


The People's Bank of China conducted 400 billion yuan ($59.2 billion) in medium-term lending facility operations on Monday at an interest rate of 2.75 percent, down from 2.85 percent a month earlier.
8月15日，央行开展4000亿元中期借贷便利（MLF）操作，中标利率为2.75%，低于上个月2.85%的利率。


Using the MLF rate as a key policy benchmark, the PBOC had kept it unchanged for six months until Monday's reduction. The interest rate of seven-day reverse repurchase agreements was also trimmed by 10 basis points to 2 percent on Monday.
在央行15日降息前，MLF操作利率已经连续6个月保持不变。8月15日，七天逆回购利率也下调了10个基点至2%。


Most market participants had not expected the central bank to launch the rate cuts as it had flagged the risk of structural inflationary pressure and its intention to fend off cross-border capital outflow risks amid overseas monetary tightening in a report last week.
此前多数观点认为央行恐难降息。因为央行在上周的一份报告中强调警惕结构性通胀压力，并准备在海外央行加快收紧步伐的背景下抵御跨境资本外流风险。


Upon the unexpected rate cuts, futures contracts for China's government bonds rose on Monday. Main contracts for 10-year, five-year and two-year government bond futures ended Monday's trading up 0.7 percent, 0.52 percent and 0.19 percent, respectively, according to market tracker Wind Info.
此次央行超预期降息后，国债期货上涨。Wind数据显示，截至15日收盘，10年期国债期货主力合约涨0.70%，5年期主力合约涨0.52%，2年期主力合约涨0.19%。


Experts said Monday's rate cuts will reassure the market about the central bank's priority of growth stabilization among multiple policy goals, especially as the latest economic and financial data have underlined the necessity of strengthening macroeconomic policy support.
专家表示，此次降息表明央行的首要政策目标仍然是稳增长，尤其是最新的经济和金融数据表明了加强宏观经济政策支持的必要性。


The National Bureau of Statistics said on Monday that the country's recovery in consumer and investment activity has slowed due to factors including renewed COVID-19 cases and a real estate downturn.
国家统计局8月15日表示，受疫情和房地产市场低迷等影响，投资、消费增速放缓。


Retail sales rose 2.7 percent year-on-year in July, down from 3.1 percent in June. Fixed-asset investment expanded by 5.7 percent in the January-July period, down from 6.1 percent for the January-June period, dragged by a 6.4 percent decline in real estate development investment, the NBS said.
7月份，社会消费品零售总额同比增长2.7%，低于6月的3.1%。国家统计局数据显示，受1-7月份全国房地产开发投资下降6.4%的影响，1-7月份全国固定资产投资同比增长5.7%，低于1-6月份的6.1%。


Credit demand also cooled in July as China's increment in aggregate social financing－the total amount of financing to the real economy－stood at 756.1 billion yuan last month, down by 319.1 billion yuan from a year ago, the central bank reported on Friday.
央行8月12日发布的报告显示，7月份信贷需求也有所降温，7月社会融资规模增量为7561亿元，与去年同期相比减少3191亿元。


The MLF rate cut may only be the first step to ramp up monetary support, analysts with Soochow Securities said in a report.
东吴证券分析师在一份报告中表示，MLF降息可能只是增加货币政策支持的第一步。


Wen Bin, chief economist at China Minsheng Bank, said the possibility of another interest rate cut cannot be ruled out as the PBOC's policy setting still takes domestic factors as dominant determinants while the pace of the Fed's tightening slows in the US.
中国民生银行首席经济学家温彬表示，不能排除央行再次降息的可能性，因为国内因素仍然是影响央行政策制定的决定性因素，而美联储的紧缩步伐有所放缓。


Moreover, Wen said it is possible for the PBOC to reduce the reserve requirement ratio in the fourth quarter to boost long-term liquidity and reduce banks' funding costs.
此外，温彬表示，中国人民银行有可能在第四季度降低存款准备金率，以提高长期流动性，降低银行的融资成本。